Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Once this trend value was established, I was able to "predict" other behaviors typical of crisis periods; for example, I predicted that there would be no antiwar movement of any consequence, since an antiwar movement is not characteristic of crisis periods. Sure enough, through the Afghan war, the Iraq war and its aftermath, and even the Presidential election, there was no antiwar movement to speak of, except for an occasional brief spurt.

From: http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... #lab100654

But now we're pulling out of these areas. What has changed?

I was contrasting today's Crisis era with the 1960's Awakening era.

During an Awakening era, there's always a "generation gap" between the
survivors of the previous crisis war, who impose strict rules and build
strict institutions designed to prevent another crisis war, and their
children who grow up after the war who rebel against the
restrictions. In the 1960s, this took the form of massive anti-
government student protests on college campuses. There are no
such student protests today.

Ah, point taken. However, there is a general anti-war sentiment among the general American public, wouldn't you agree? There aren't very violent anti-war protests. yes, but I think there is that mood.

mhrr wrote:Ah, point taken. However, there is a general anti-war sentiment among the general American public, wouldn't you agree? There aren't very violent anti-war protests. yes, but I think there is that mood.

The same can be said about the late 30s to early 40s. There was a lot of popular resistance to having the military intervene in Europe. The US government/military spent a number of years playing "tippy-toe", trying to support its allies while remaining largely on the sidelines of what was perceived as "someone else's war". Once the match was lit by the Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor (partially in retaliation for our embargos), however, public sentiment in the US began to change. I don't think generalized anti-war sentiment can necessarily be used as a sign of an unwillingness to get caught up in the wartime frenzy. It just takes the right catalyst.

Case in point, I think the US will try to stay largely noncommittal with respect to the events in the Middle East until somebody does something undeniably atrocious, such as nuking a city. Yes, the politicians worry about our supply of imported oil, but any military intervention for political reasons will be half-hearted and semi-effective at best. It will take something like a moral/ethical atrocity to spark public sentiment. At that point, if we go in we will go *all* in. Even the "nuclear option" will eventually make it onto the table.

Well, we've also got conflicting anxieties. On the one hand, we don't want to get involved in another conflict and there's little enthusiasm, although the actual anti-war movement was more focused at Bush than the war itself. On the other, we're also worried about terrorism and the increasingly dangerous Middle East situation. We're being pulled in both directions, but eventually, we'll be in a world war.

I'll agree with you there. When the Clash of Civilizations war starts, we *will* eventually become an all-in participant. I just think we'll continue to see anti-war sentiment until the right catalyst occurs to arouse the public. For now, our military presence and participation worldwide is mainly political as with non-crisis wars, and has similar characteristics. Once the public passions have been aroused though, the entire character of our military will change into something focused and deadly. Right now, the Middle East is the best candidate for supplying such a catalyst, IMO.

You say Clash of Civilizations. The last World War was between Western nations, which Civilizations are we speaking about here?

mhrr wrote:You say Clash of Civilizations. The last World War was between Western nations, which Civilizations are we speaking about here?

I think most people in 1940 would have considered Japan a non- western country. Some US war propaganda http://brainz.org/10-most-xenophobic-pi ... ropaganda/

Oops! I'm sorry, Japan slipped my mind, I'm not sure how.

Still, which Clash of Civilizations for the next world war coming up?