Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Hi,
On my opinion, Generational Theory is a great theory, with one point I'd be glad to see added, the general psychological state of a country.

Let's assume that the WEST is managed by FEAR, Asia by HOPE and Arab country ba REVENGE for HUMILIATION (the class are not from me, but anyone who travel can check it is "real")

You belong to the WEST, so you tend to be paranoïac (a little bit) US Congress too, European governemnts too, between themselves.

CHINA belongs to Asia and there are a lot (really a lot) of Hope there. China government tends to be VERY Cautious, they really try to give more power to China without, OR an internal clash OR an external clash, so I'm feeling that you do not take that enough into account in your analysis.

Let face one problem: China and OIL and FISHES in South China sea (these are the 2 ressources the China want for them).
Exactly as the US, they are ready to invade ANY country for their own power, Exactly as the US WITHOUT taking any risk.
The rhetoric is different (US wants to appear as a nice christian country, China doesn't care, so rhetoric is different, reality not)
So China will take power on the Chiny sea in a very slow move (week by week) and a lot of rhetoric.
But they need oil, and they are going to take their time to open a path through Pakistan to Arabia, path is not ready now, so they are going to wait and take their time, no hurry.

CONSEQUENCES:
It is true that China will probably install troups on ANY island of the south China sea, US will not feel that more than a mosquito bite and will NOT react (except rhetoric)
China may invade part of Vietnam (only part of, the islands around Vietnam would be enough, just to show its power to show to Japan that they are as strong as the US and that the US do nothing)) or part of India (in my opinion this would be a mistake because they are already VERY present in ANY state north of India, where they have ALREADY built silently almost ALL the schools there, so they ALREADY teach to indian people how to be chinese, this is better option than an military invasion, yet).

NO WAR before 2020, but a lot of moves, because before that time China is NOT strong enough to put US OUT of the China sea, US is in a VERY bad economic situation so they cannot pay, on the long term, for an army defending Japan, so China has just to wait.

When you live in an state of Hope, no government will be stupid enough to kill that Hope, it helps him to buy time and to stay corrupted.

So timing will be crucial and: US has NO time, China has a lot of time in front of it AND a limited territory progression goal, so China will win, without war, exept if the US goes to war, and US will not try to be the first going to war.

This is my analysis that I made ALSO in aggregating the generational Theory, but not only, there are realities inside any country that you cannot deny.

As anyone managed by fear, I think your are too in a hurry.
The problems you describe every day are here, most of them can ONLY be solved by a deadly war, but not NOW.
I join the geopolitical analysis I already read 5 years ago, saying that 2013-2020 will be the WORST period of bluff and intimidation we lived since the middle age, between 2 countries, BUT NOT a period of war.

We'll see, but the goal of my note is to ask you to add more psychological reality in your analysis, which I found, by the way, very clever and very instructive, so my remark is a way to THANK YOU not to criticize your work (otherwise I wouldn't even write).

Burt

Burt, it appears English is not your first language.

What is your first language ?

Dear Burt (who, I believe, is French),

Burt wrote: > On my opinion, Generational Theory is a great theory, with one
> point I'd be glad to see added, the general psychological state of
> a country.

I do believe that psychological factors play an important part in
generational analysis. Here are some examples:

In 1941, the Japanese tortured and maimed Americans on the Bataan
Death March, but that incident is almost forgotten today.

In 1937, the Japanese tortured and killed Chinese in the Massacre at
Nanking. Not only is it well-remembered by the entire public, it's a
major symbol of China's attitude today towards Japan.

There are few people left with a personal memory of either incident,
so anything that's "remembered" has been filtered through many
generational retellings. So, what are the psychological factors that
cause one incident to be forgotten and one to be remembered, as
generations flow?

Perhaps some grad school student will figure out how to evaluate these
psychological factors within the framework of generational theory,
but it's not something that I expect to be doing.

I don't normally place a lot of credence on blogs when it comes to the true facts of current events, but that site has a reputation for citing sources and for generally having their act together. What really cinches it for me, though, is that the timing is perfectly in sync with some professional rumours I've been hearing suggesting a possible Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities as early as October.