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7-Feb-14 World View -- Russia contemplates Ukraine military action after Sochi

Pakistan government mediators talk to Taliban mediators

** 7-Feb-14 World View -- Russia contemplates Ukraine military action after Sochi
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e140207


Contents:
Russia contemplates Ukraine military action after Sochi
Pakistan government mediators talk to Taliban mediators


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Stepan Bandera,
Andrey Illarionov, Crimea, Sevastopol, Dmitry Yarosh,
Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban,
Sharia law

Why would anyone believe that the people who invaded Georgia, and Chechnya would hesitate to use military action in the Ukraine?

As is the case with the Chinese in the South China Sea, it is also the case with the Russians in the Ukraine - past performance is future performance.

As past performance is indicative of future performance, accordingly we may also expect Obama to do nothing, unless, of course, Americans are killed, in that case he will find an obscure film maker, and have him arrested - by the Gestapo. He will immediately proclaim to the world that the Chinese indignation that caused the American deaths was because of this wicked, subhuman film maker who had the audacity to create a video that dishonored the Chinese - a completely despicable, and un-American activity (freedom of speech, that is.) Where upon of course, two weeks later, he will apologize to the Chinese and the world at the UN General Assembly and emphatically state that the future does not belong to those who deprecate the Chinese. Upon the terminus of his apology to the Chinese, he - Obama - will wish those in Asia well in their future endeavors, including Japan, Australia, New Zealand, India, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Korea, and Brunei. Or in other words: Obama's past performance may also be expected to be indicative of his future performance; which is of course, why both the Russians, and the Chinese feel comfortable doing what they are doing.

Additionally, we may soon expect to see on the scene - both in the Ukraine, and China - the appearance of the world's salvation, in the form of SecState Chicken Kerry, who may be expected to wildly proclaim: "... we need a peace process, we need a peace process... BTW does anybody know when the Nobel committee decides who is to get the Nobel Prize."

This might be funny were we not talking about the future of prospectively millions of people. All placed in the hands of those who were prepared for nothing when they took office - the inept, and the incapable, those whose every utterance is calculated to deceive.

Militarily Russia is weak. Are nuclear weapons really option? The Russian military is corrupt, poorly trained, badly lead, and poorly equipment. Command and control is weak (Russian commanders were using civilian cellphones to call in airstrikes in the Georgian war). The invasion of tiny Georgia was shambolic. The invasion of the Ukraine will be a bigger mess. If the Ukrainians can get their act together, they could save most of the country. The Crimea and border areas are heavily populated with Russians, so they have little chance of keeping those areas. However, the rest of the country could breakaway. Even in the best case scenario, I believe Russia will keep the Crimea.

And the EU? They will do virtually nothing.

Agreed, in the face of EU and American weakness, and Ukrainian internal dissent, will the Ukraine be able to defend the central and western part of the country? Perhaps Putin's object, as was done in Georgia, may be to take what's easy - the Russian speaking east -, and abandon the rest to chaos, or leave the rest it to it's own devices. The Russian suspension of the agreed upon loan to the Ukraine might also be seen as another possible symptom boding for military action; for who in their right mind is going to loan $15 billion to a country they are planning to invade and conquer, or at a minimum partition. From my way of thinking the prospect of ever seeing that cash again, upon invasion, would plummet to somewhere near zero.

Putin appears to not be above the use of force in the Ukraine, or anywhere else that he believes that he may easily, and cheaply benefit. Numerous small victories over time creates an image of invincibility.

There is also a high probability of coordinated action between Putin in Europe, and China in the South China Sea. The object of such coordinated action is an effort to split America, and create indecision and paralysis in an ill prepared WH that has already exhibited a willingness to let Americans die rather than initiate military action, and has displayed abject weakness in nuclear arms negotiations, and in Syria, and eastern Europe.

But then again, who knows?