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3-Mar-14 World View -- Russia declares the Autonomous Republic of Crimea

North Korea fires short-range missiles into the sea

** 3-Mar-14 World View -- Russia declares the Autonomous Republic of Crimea
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e140303



Contents:
Russia declares the Autonomous Republic of Crimea
Strategic consequences of Russia's conquest of Crimea
North Korea fires short-range missiles into the sea


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Autonomous Republic of Crimea,
Russia, Sergey Aksyonov, Georgia, South Ossetia,
North Caucasus, Dagestan, Chechnya, Tatars, Josef Stalin,
Donbas, Transnistria, Moldova,
North Korea, South Korea

Many people talk as if Russia as a military and economic powerhouse-it's not. Russia's military is ramshackle and could not stand up to a modern western army. (Unless they were attacking Luxembourg.) Russia is a nuclear threat. What's next? India and Pakistan threatening Europe, too? Russia's economy is fragile. Russia is a vast welfare state, and they Russian government has been forced to subsidize most of the remaining industries in Russia (even privately held companies) in order to keep people employed. Russia's economy is tied to oil and natural gas. War in Ukraine would devastate Russia's economy as badly as Europe's (if not worse). Russia has to import a lot of food, medicine, and all types of machinery from the West. Russia cannot withstand an economic embargo.

Why do some act as if Russia holds all the cards? They don't.

People often talk about the 1930s and the build up to World War Two and exclaim, "Why couldn't people see what Hitler/Stalin/ the Japanese were up to?" Well, here we go again. And people are behaving in almost exactly the same way.

However, I see no options to prevent the Russians conquest of Crimea or even eastern Ukraine. I if the Russians want it, they can go ahead
Why:
1) Russia is the main supplier of gas and oil to Western Europe, particular Germany. Against this, it is argued, that the Russians depend on imports from Western Europe. The question here is, whether China can and will step in as customer and deliverer. My opionion is, that China can deliver everything the Russians need to import and China too has enough need for Russias oil, gas and raw materials to compenstate for Europe. If China can and will, this would ruin Western Europe.
2) The extreme vulnerability of Western Europe and the US to EMP-Strikes ensures, that Western Europe an probbaly the US too will not survive a war with Russia (as well as a war with China). Just one single nuclear warhead exploded 200 Miles above the North See will shut down Germany, the Low Lands, GB, Denmark, southern Sweden, and big parts of France. Most of the civilian and even the military microelectronics would be destroyed as well as key parts of the electric infrastructure. Europe would freeze and starve to death within months. See the report of the emp-commission ( http://www.empcommission.org/ ) as well as novells as "SS18: The Satan Legacy" from Patrick Lowrie and "One Second After" from William R. Forstchen for details and further explantioins. At least Europe is not prepared for this.
Retaliation will make no sense, since retaliation will even more sharply decrease the chance of survivall for the Europeans and Americans.
Shutting down Europe may strengthen Russia since eastern European states will again depend much more on Russia, while NATO will be proved dead and worthless and Western Europe and the US will no longer be attractiv for young high potentials from Russia as places to emigrate to.
For the EMP-risc it is also interessting to google with "bartlett roscoe russia emp".

My conclusion: Europe, and probably the US too, have made themselfes so vulnerable, that they have become teethless old tigers. They can do nothing than just complain. If our governments are still a little bit reasonable, they give in and will let Putin and the Russians, as well as the Chinese do and get what they want. At least now, we should learn from Sun Tzu - and give in, since we were stupid enough to ignore his advice for too many years when we let our countries and societies become weak, vulnerable and careless beyond reason.

Guest wrote:

Why do some act as if Russia holds all the cards? They don't.

The reason that many see Russia as holding all the cards is because Putin understands the "game." Obama does not; he is naive; inexperienced; has alienated America's traditional allies; has no understanding of power politics; and only now, too late, is he starting to understand the totalitarian mindset that we, because of his criminal arrogance, must now face alone.

In short it makes little difference how much power, or what overwhelming forces and/or weapons that you have at your disposal, if you do not have the strength of character to make your opponent know that you will in fact use them against him. And by Obama's actions over the past five years, Putin understands that Obama is impotent, and thus the West is leaderless. Obama's first choice is always the same when presented by a determined enemy - surrender. We live in times of great self-inflicted national jeopardy. A gutted American military, a military primarily used for social engineering, is not a strong national defense. The underlying question is just how much has he - Obama, our community organizer - weakened the US military.

Putin is not a master of the game. Putin is highly predictable. Putin is not all that clever. Far from it. Putin is a coward at heart. Putin is a rat faced troll. Freud would have a field day with him. Putin's only real advantage is that he is completely ruthless and without scruples.

The problem is this: The world's political leaders are unbelievably inept. We live in age of political midgets, of mediocrity. It is easy to paralyze these swindlers and idlers.

I have never believed that the EU or the United States would come to Ukraine's rescue. Never. The only real hope for the Ukraine is the fires will start in Russia's house: the Kavkaz, Tatarstan, and the streets of Moscow. ( The last one being the least likely.) If war breaks out in the Ukraine, violence will flare up in other parts of Russia. Putin will be forced to shift troops to other fronts. That is what is in the works. War in the Ukraine will be an opportunity for rebel groups all over the ex-Soviet Union. Russia doesn't have that many combat worthy troops. They really don't. And a large percentage of those CIS troops are Muslims. There are a lot of factors to consider.

Guest wrote:

Putin is not a master of the game. Putin is highly predictable. Putin is not all that clever. Far from it. Putin is a coward at heart. Putin is a rat faced troll. Freud would have a field day with him. Putin's only real advantage is that he is completely ruthless and without scruples....

The only issue we have here is that Putin doesn't need to be adept, any understanding he may have puts him far beyond any understanding that Obama may have; as the inept man in Washington has neither understanding, nor fortitude.

The problem is this: The world's political leaders are unbelievably inept. We live in age of political midgets, of mediocrity. It is easy to paralyze these swindlers and idlers.

Without question correct. The unified alliance that held the Soviets at bay for 50 years is fractured, there is no unity. An argument may be made for the lack of the existence of any effective alliance at all. Five years of Obama's "... I win, you lose..." diplomacy has led to a Western defeatism that has left all American alliances fractured and divided - under this cheap Chicago thug no one believes any longer in a morally strong resolute America. Internationally speaking, it isn't clear who is the worse of the two, an ally who spies and undermines you for personal gain, or a cheap Russian thug who uses naked aggression for personal gain (Putin perhaps, but I guess the argument might be made that it really applies to both)? Considering the events in the Ukraine, the German Rhineland occupation analogy of 1936 comes to mind, an occupation that unopposed fed the tyrant's - Hitler - blood lust, and thus led directly to WWII.

I have never believed that the EU or the United States would come to Ukraine's rescue. Never. The only real hope for the Ukraine is the fires will start in Russia's house: the Kavkaz, Tatarstan, and the streets of Moscow. ( The last one being the least likely.) If war breaks out in the Ukraine, violence will flare up in other parts of Russia. Putin will be forced to shift troops to other fronts. That is what is in the works. War in the Ukraine will be an opportunity for rebel groups all over the ex-Soviet Union. Russia doesn't have that many combat worthy troops. They really don't. And a large percentage of those CIS troops are Muslims. There are a lot of factors to consider.

Succinct and to the point - look for an up-tick of terror events inside Russia. Say a prayer for those in the Ukraine, and for those who surround China. How could we, as a people, be so abjectly stupid - while you're praying say one for us, we're going to need it.

The Russians currently have the upper hand due to the withdrawal of the US/ISAF from Afghanistan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_logi ... on_Network
The US will not do much militarily, until it is out of Afghanistan or secure the Pakistan route.
The correlation of forces and/or order of battle of Western/NATO forces to Russian lean to the Russians, since they hold the home field advantage and is more willing to use force to achieve their goals. However, the Russians just got another insurgency with the Tatars if they do not tread carefully. Most likely, the Russians will try to buy them off or “go the mattresses”. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatars or http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/mon ... important/