Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

I'm assuming that John's crisis list is complete as far as his research is concerned (of course, I wouldn't know if there was other research that hasn't been published yet). Assuming that it is, though, then I see a couple of areas where the lists can be slightly expanded.

Mycenaean Greece is a little weird because the only information we have on it comes from oral legends. These are not very good at keeping accurate dates, but are useful in keeping careful track of how many generations have transpired between one event and another. Thus, a crisis list can be obtained by looking for wars across multiple City-States that occur on intervals of about 4-6 generations. I use Thebes as an example, but the same result comes from any Greek Kinglist.

Mycenaean Greece crisis list:
Chaos immediately following the Deucalion Flood, Reign of Cadmus
The War of Seven Against Thebes, Reign of Amphion (4 generations later)
The Trojan War, Reign of Thesander (4 generations later)
The Invasion of the Sea People, Reign of Xanthos (5 generations later)

The Greek Dark Age presumably had generational cycles as well, but the information is so scant that we have no way of determining the date or nature of these events.

Classical Greece crisis list:
Fall of the tyrants, c.620 BC
Persian War, 499-480 BC
Peloponnesian War, 431-404 BC
Conquest by Macedon, 342-338 BC

Additionally, Classical Greece is a great opportunity to establish the awakening and recovery periods as well:
Recovery: Greek Democracy (early 6th century BC)
Awakening: Seven Sages (mid 6th century BC)
Recovery: The Corinthian League (early 5th century BC)
Awakening: Pre-Socratic logic (mid 5th century BC)
Recovery: The King's Peace (early 4th century BC)
Awakening: The Academies of Plato and Aristotle (mid 4th century BC)
Recovery: The Macedonian Empire (late 4th century BC)
Awakening: Geometry and Stoicism (early 3rd century BC)

The other crisis list I would add to is on Arabia.
I will add here dates in the Islamic (Hijra) calendar to illustrate the relative dates.

Arabia/Caliphate crisis list:
Quryash tribe takes Mecca, c.470 AD (c.150 BH)
Byzantium attacks Mecca, 570 AD (76 BH)
The First Fitna, 656-661 AD (35-40 AH)
The Abbasid Revolution, 750 AD (132 AH)
The Anarchy at Samarra, 861-870 AD (246-256 AH)

After that, the Caliphate breaks up into smaller sultanates that (presumably) would each have a unique generational cycle.

Let me know what you think,
Nathan

There are a number of different lists, scattered around in different
places. It would be nice if they were all merged into once
comprehensive list.

Here's Matt's crisis war list, with a few changes:


Afghanistan -- Soviet Invasion + Civil War -- 1978-1992
Algeria -- 1871 Revolt -- 1866-1871
Algeria -- Algerian War of Independence --1954-1962
Angola -- Portuguese Expansion -- ?1900-1910
Angola -- Independence + Civil War -- 1961-1989
Argentina -- Argentinean War of Independence -- 1810-1817
Argentina -- War of the Triple Alliance -- 1864-1870
Argentina -- Dirty War -- 1973-1983
Armenia -- Armenian Genocide -- 1908-1917
Australia -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Austria -- French Revolution + Napoleonic Wars -- 1792-1814
Austria -- Austro-Prussian War -- 1864-1866
Austria -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Bangladesh -- 1857 Rebellion -- 1857-1858
Bangladesh -- Partition + War -- 1946-1947
Belarus -- Belarus National Republic -- 1917-1919
Benin -- Ethnic Strife + Coups + Baifran War -- 1960-1972
Bolivia -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
Bolivia -- War of the Pacific -- 1878-1884
Bolivia -- Revolutionary Nationalist Movement -- 1952-1980
Bosnia -- World War One -- 1912-1918
Bosnia -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
Botswana -- Mfecane -- 1815-1835
Botswana -- Second Boer War -- 1899-1902
Brazil -- Brazilian War of Independence -- 1821-1825
Brazil -- Establishment of Old Republic -- 1889-1898
Brazil -- Military Takeover -- 1964-1974
Burkina Faso -- Mossi Resistance/Samori Ture -- 1894-1898
Burundi -- European Arrival -- 1905-1914
Burundi -- Civil War -- 1987-1993
Cambodia -- French Indochina -- 1885-1895
Cambodia -- Civil War -- 1965-1975
Cameroon -- Fulani Conquest -- 180x-18xx
Cameroon – European Arrival – 187x-18xx
Cameroon -- UPC Revolt -- 1955-1960
Chad -- Rabih az-Zubayr -- 1890-1900
Chile -- Chilean War of Independence -- 1810-1825
Chile -- War of the Pacific -- 1878-1884
Chile -- Pinochet Rule -- 1973-1978
China -- Taiping Rebellion -- 1851-1864
China -- Civil War + World War Two -- 1932-1949
Colombia -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
Colombia -- War of a Thousand Days -- 1886-1902
Colombia -- La Violencia -- 1948-1958
Congo -- Civil War -- 1997-1999
Costa Rica -- Civil War -- 1944-1948
Côte d'Ivoire -- Samori Touré's conquest, climaxing in 1881-83
Croatia -- World War One -- 1912-1918
Croatia -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
Cuba -- Ten Years War -- 1868-1878
Cuba -- Cuban Revolution -- 1956-1959
Democratic Republic of the Congo -- Congo Free State -- 1885-1908
Democratic Republic of the Congo -- Congo Wars -- 1995-2002
Ecuador -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
Ecuador -- Liberal Takeover + Civil War -- 1895-1911 (possibly aborted civil war)
Ecuador -- Instability and Military Dominance -- 1960-1972
Egypt -- Rise of Muhammad Ali -- 1786-1811
Egypt -- Urabi Revolt -- 1870-1882
Egypt -- Egyptian Revolution -- 1944-1953
England -- French Revolution + Napoleonic Wars -- 1793-1802
England -- American Civil War -- 1857-1865
England -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Estonia -- War of Independence -- 1917-1920
Ethiopia -- First Italian-Ethiopian War -- 1889-1896
Ethiopia -- Red Terror + Various Wars and Instability -- 1974-1991
El Salvador -- La Matanza -- 1927-1932
El Salvador -- Salvadoran Civil War -- 1980-1992
Eritrea -- First Italian-Ethiopian War -- 1889-1896
Eritrea -- War of Independence -- 1961-1988
Finland -- Independence + Civil War -- 1917-1918
France -- French Revolution + Napoleonic Wars -- 1789-1814
France -- Franco-Prussian War -- 1870-1871
France -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Germany -- French Revolution + Napoleonic Wars -- 1793-1814
Germany -- Franco-Prussian War -- 1864-1871
Germany -- World War Two -- 1929-1944
Georgia -- Resistance to Soviets -- 1916-1924
Ghana -- Resistance to British -- ?1887-1902
Greece -- War of Independence -- 1821-1829
Greece -- WWI + Greco-Turkish War -- 1912-1921
Guatemala -- Civil War -- 1966-1983
Guinea-- Samori Ture -- 1882-1898
Guinea-Bissau -- War of Independence -- 1963-1974
Haiti -- Haitian Revolution -- 1791-1804
Haiti -- 1915 Coup + Rebellion -- 1911-1934
Honduras -- Instability -- 1919-1924
Honduras -- Football War + Coups etc. -- 1969-1983
India -- 1857 Rebellion -- 1857-1858
India -- Partition + War -- 1946-1947
Indonesia -- Java War -- 1825-1830
Indonesia -- Aceh War -- 1883-1904
Indonesia -- Coups + Genocide -- 1955-1966
Iran -- Iranian-Russian War -- 1801-1813
Iran -- Constitutional Revolution -- 1906-1909
Iran -- Iran-Iraq War -- 1978-1988
Iraq -- Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire + Great Iraqi Revolution-- 1908-1920
Iraq -- Iran-Iraq War -- 1980-1988
Ireland -- Irish Rebellion of 1798 -- 1793-1798
Ireland -- Potato Famine -- 1845-1849
Ireland -- Revolution + Civil War -- 1913-1924
Israel -- Arab-Israeli War -- 1947-1949
Italy -- Wars of Unification -- 1859-1870
Italy -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Japan -- Meiji Restoration -- 1852-1868
Japan -- World War Two -- 1937-1945
Jordan -- Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire -- 1908-1922
Kazakhstan -- Alash Orda -- 1916-1920
Kenya -- Mau Mau Uprising -- 1952-1959
Kosovo -- World War One -- 1912-1918
Kosovo -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
Kyrgyzstan -- Resistance to Soviets -- 1916-1924
Latvia -- Wars of Independence + Russian Civil War -- 1917-1922
Laos -- French Indochina -- 1885-1895
Laos -- Civil War -- 1965-1975
Lebanon -- Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire -- 1908-1922
Lebanon -- Civil War -- 1977-1982
Liberia -- Civil Wars -- 1989-2003
Libya/Tunisia -- Italian Turkish War -- 1911-1912 [[JX: This is wrong]]
Lithuania -- Wars of Independence -- 1917-1920
Madagascar -- Wars Against French -- 1895-1896
Madagascar -- Malagasy Uprising -- 1947-1948
Malaysia -- Larut + Klang Wars + Various -- 1861-1874
Malaysia -- World War Two -- 1941-1945
Mali -- Samori Ture -- 1882-1898
Mauritania -- Saharan War + 1989 Events -- 1976-1989
Mexico -- War of Independence -- 1810-1821
Mexico -- Mexican Revolution -- 1910-1921
Morocco -- Rif War -- 1919-1926
Mongolia -- Independence Era -- 1911-1921
Montenegro -- World War One -- 1912-1918
Montenegro -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
Mozambique -- Independence + Civil War -- 1964-1988
Myanmar -- Civil War -- 1948-1958
Nepal -- 1857 Rebellion -- 1857-1858
Nepal -- Partition + War -- 1946-1947
New Zealand -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Nicaragua -- Sandinista National Liberation Front -- 1972-1990
Niger -- Resistance to French -- 189x-191x
(Northern) Nigeria -- Sokoto Caliphate -- 1804-1808
(Southern) Nigeria -- Yoruba Wars -- 1817-183x
Nigeria -- Resistance to French? -- 189x-191x
Nigeria -- Baifran War -- 1966-1970
North Korea -- Grand Prince Reforms? -- 1864-1873
North Korea -- World War Two -- 1937-1945
Oman -- Civil war, 1870-71
Oman -- Dhofar Rebellion, 1962-75
Pakistan -- 1857 Rebellion -- 1857-1858
Pakistan -- Partition + War -- 1946-1947
Panama -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
Panama -- War of a Thousand Days -- 1886-1902
Panama -- La Violencia -- 1948-1958
Paraguay -- War of the Triple Alliance -- 1864-1870
Paraguay -- Chaco War -- 1932-1935
Peru -- Peruvian War of Independence -- 1812-1824
Peru -- War of the Pacific -- 1878-1884
Peru -- Instability and Military Dominance -- 1968-1985
Philippines -- Philippine Revolution -- 1896-1898
Philippines -- World War Two -- 1941-1945
Poland -- January Uprising -- 1863-1864
Poland -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Russia -- Crimean War + Emancipation -- 1853-1856
Russia -- WWI + Bolshevik Revolution + Civil War -- 1915-1920
Rwanda -- Civil War -- 1990-1994
Saudi Arabia -- Ottoman-Saudi War -- 1801-1818
Saudi Arabia -- Ibn Saud Conquests -- 1902-1925
Serbia -- World War One -- 1912-1918
Serbia -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
Sierra Leone -- Civil War -- 1991-2002
Singapore -- World War Two -- 1942-1945
Slovenia -- World War One -- 1912-1918
Slovenia -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
Somalia -- Dervish Resistance -- 1900-1920
Somalia -- Civil War -- 1974-1994
South Africa -- Mfecane -- 1815-1835
South Africa -- Second Boer War -- 1899-1902
South Africa -- Apartheid -- 1948-1960
South Korea -- Grand Prince Reforms? -- 1864-1873
South Korea -- World War Two -- 1937-1945
Spain -- Peninsular War -- 1793-1814
Spain -- Spanish Republic -- 1868-1874
Spain -- Civil War -- 1936-1939
Sudan -- Mahdist War -- 1881-1889
Sudan -- Civil War -- 1983-Present
Suriname -- 1980 Coups + Rebellion -- 1980-1992
Syria -- Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire -- 1908-1922
Syria -- Lebanon War -- 1977-1982
Tajikistan -- Resistance to Soviets -- 1916-1920
Tajikistan -- Civil War -- 1992-1997
Tanzania -- Civil War + Invasion -- 1886-1896
Tanzania -- Amin + Bush War -- 1966-1986
Thailand -- World War Two -- 1932-1945
Turkey -- Crimean War -- 1853-1856
Turkey -- Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire -- 1908-1922
Turkmenistan -- Resistance to Soviets -- 1916-1924
Uganda -- Civil War + Invasion -- 1886-1896
Uganda -- Amin + Bush War -- 1966-1986
USA -- Revolutionary War -- 1773-1781
USA -- Civil War -- 1856-1865
USA -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Uruguay -- Uruguayan War of Independence -- 1811-1825
Uruguay -- José Batlle y Ordóñez? -- 1903-1915
Uruguay -- Military Government -- 1959-1980
Uzbekistan -- Resistance to Soviets -- 1916-1924
Venezuela -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
Venezuela -- War of a Thousand Days -- 1886-1902
Venezuela -- La Violencia -- 1948-1958
Vietnam -- French Indochina -- 1885-1895
Vietnam -- Vietnam War -- 1965-1975
Zimbabwe -- Ndebele Invasion/Mfecane Fallout -- 1815-1835
Zimbabwe -- Mtabeleland Wars -- 1893-1897
Zimbabwe -- Rhodesian Bush War -- 1964-1979


John

Thank you so much for this indispensable information . This definitely sheds light on the state of all countries right now.

Now as for historical countries (Byzantium, the Caliphate, Classical Greece, etc.), which no longer exist, I presume that the crisis lists in your two books are complete, then?

Thanks,
Nathan

Nathan G wrote: > Now as for historical countries (Byzantium, the Caliphate,
> Classical Greece, etc.), which no longer exist, I presume that the
> crisis lists in your two books are complete, then?

That's probably close to the truth. But I'm not that organized, so
you can't be sure of anything.

The following information was supplied by forum member Chris:

I was going over the country list on the main website and saw that Angola had a page. Having a bit of knowlage on the country, I was hoping I could expand on the time line and line up with John's timeline


Angola timeline

Angola is Domiated by three major tribes that make up the majority and history of Angola, the Bakongo, Ovimbundu, and the Ambundu. The Bakongo for the most part have been market dominated minority in Angola and fought alongside the Ovimbundu against the Ambundu during the Angolan civil war.

So going back from the last Crisis war/era which was the civil war and indepence I tried the best as I could using John's method to get an Idea of Angola's crisises


1975-1989: Crisis (Civil war)
1885-1910: Crisis ( Resistance to Portuguese/ Incorporation to Portugal)
1774-1792: Crisis( Mbailundu war/Cabinda/Marquisate of Mussolo)
1701-1709: Crisis ( War/ Decline of the Kongo Kingdom)
1640-1656: Crisis ( Dutch invasion/ Queen Nzinga)

The following information is from forum member Chris:

Anyways Nathan and John, I was able to find some information pertaining to the C.A.R and region going back to the 1500's. The most important facts that i was able to find is that sometime in the Early 1800's 4 Tribes/Ethnic groups all moved to the region. The Baya (34% of C.A.R's population identify as members), Banda, Azande, and the Mandjia people all moved into the Ubangi river and Shari river region to avoid Arab and Islamic Slave traders. By the mid 1800's, the Bobangi people people who had lived along the Ubangi river had decided to take up slave trading and started to prey on the Baya and Mandija people. Rabih az-Zubayr shows up in the Ubangi-Shari region by 1879 and carves a path of destruction along the way but gets repealed back into Chad in 1885 by Mandjia Tribes and it's Leader Kaga Kazanba.

As for the Baya People, These Tidbit from Britannica helps to form a timeline on them.

The Gbaya migrated southeastward from what is now the Hausa area of northern Nigeria early in the 19th century, fleeing the jihad (holy war) of Usman dan Fodio. Led by Gazargamu, their war chief, the Gbaya vanquished, assimilated, or drove ahead of them the peoples that they encountered. Contemporary Gbaya subgroups, which include the Bokoto, Kara, Buli, Kaka, and Bwaka, reflect this integration of defeated peoples. The Gbaya, in turn, were attacked annually by Fulani slavers from what is now northern Cameroon

Usman dan Fodio, Usman also spelled Uthman or Usuman, Arabic ʿUthmān Ibn Fūdī (born December 1754, Maratta, Gobir, Hausaland [now in Nigeria]—died 1817, Sokoto, Fulani empire), Fulani mystic, philosopher, and revolutionary reformer who, in a jihad (holy war) between 1804 and 1808, created a new Muslim state, the Fulani empire, in what is now northern Nigeria.

Also this new clip from al ahram gives the info that the crisis is Tribe based.

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/5467/19 ... usade.aspx

This link went back into the C.A.R's history and gives more vital info

http://africanhistory.about.com/od/car/ ... line-1.htm

So looking back at all the infomation that I gathered and being more careful with John's methodology I came to a timeline for the Tribes of the C.A.R


Gbaya and Mandjia People

Crisis: Expulsion to Ubangi-Shari/ Usman dan Fodio's Jihad From 1804-1808
Next Crisis : Rabih az-Zubayr's Expedition into Ubangi-Shari From 1879-1885
Recovery: French Colonization from 1887 to 1902
Awakening: Capitation/ Revolts in Ubangi-Shari from 1903-1916
Unraveling: From 1916 to 1928. During this time the Gbaya and Mandjia started acting revenge killing against the Fula people within the region
Crisis: Kongo-Wara Rebellion from 1928-1934. Started as a Crisis war between Gbaya/Mandjia and the Fula but ecompased the French colonials as the Gbaya attacked the french troops and people alongside the Fula. Ended with large populations of Gbaya and Mandjia people forcibly relocated and the French government agreed not to renew the leases of concessionary companies withing the region.


I'm still working on the timeline for other tribes and after the Kongo Wara rebellion but the history before the rebellion is good to being done. What do you guys think?

Chris, I want to thank you for the information above, which I've
copied from other threads. It's very difficult to get historical
information about African countries, so this information is very
valuable.

John

> Hypothetically speaking, John, if you ever obtained the funding
> for creating a database for storing saeculums throughout world
> history, how would you go about doing that? (As a step-by-step
> process). I'm curious because I hope you will be able to create it
> someday, and I also hope to be part of such project when it
> happens.

Here's something that I wrote a few years ago:

The long-range goal of Generational Dynamics is to create a
computerized "world model," a database incorporating the generational
timelines of every country, clan, and tribe in the world into a
single model. It's known exactly how to do it. It would have very
powerful analytical and predictive capabilities, and it would be a
significant tool in historical analysis. It would have applications
in government, education and business. I estimate that I need a
budget of $2-5 million over a period of several years to get it fully
implemented.

There are two sides to this project -- algorithmic development and
data collection.

Today, there are few people who fully understand the generational
algorithms. So the first major task will be finding people and
training them to do the other tasks. The second major task will be
computer implementation of the algorithms.

Now let's turn to the data collection side.

It will be necessary to collect and analyze huge amounts of data on a
continuing basis. Access to government intelligence data would be
extremely valuable for this, if the project is funded by the
government. For purely commercial use, data will have to be collected
from online sources -- newspapers, blogs, etc. -- and from polling.

With regard to polling, I would like to have polling done
continuously in dozens or perhaps hundreds of cities and towns around
the world. This polling need not be expensive; if I could identify a
few hundred high-school students in cities around the world who would
be able to receive e-mail questions and spend a day at the mall or
the local farm stand, getting answers to the questions, then I would
have the information that I need. A web site like guru.com is good
for handling problems of this kind.

The next major data collection task is translating, assimilating and
collating the data. This will require a bunch of people, and they'll
require a moderate amount of training to understand what to look for,
and how to handle it. The collated data must then be fed into the
computerized World Model, which will perform automated analysis and
make predictions as required. The methodology for doing this is the
same as has been illustrated on my web site for the last five years.
The intent will be to identify specific generational archetypes and
sub-archetypes and turnings and sub-turnings in each region.

The foundations and feasibility of the World Model have already been
established by the GenerationalDynamics.com web site, where
generational analyses of dozens of countries have been posted.

Thus, suitable goals for a short-term project would be to take one or
two specific countries and evaluate them for some specific purpose,
such as developing a business plan for marketing a new product or
service.

John wrote: Here's something that I wrote a few years ago:

The long-range goal of Generational Dynamics is to create a
computerized "world model," a database incorporating the generational
timelines of every country, clan, and tribe in the world into a
single model. It's known exactly how to do it. It would have very
powerful analytical and predictive capabilities, and it would be a
significant tool in historical analysis. It would have applications
in government, education and business. I estimate that I need a
budget of $2-5 million over a period of several years to get it fully
implemented.

...

Thus, suitable goals for a short-term project would be to take one or
two specific countries and evaluate them for some specific purpose,
such as developing a business plan for marketing a new product or
service.

Thank you very much for explaining that. I had been confused about your goals until now. I hope you don't mind if I offer some suggestions:

I think you might save a lot of resources if you focused entirely on the past, ignoring the present and future for now. Create a list of saeculums for states, tribes, and cultures in recorded history, leaving out any present-day attitudes. If you just did that, I don't think you would need any public polls or government records, and I imagine you would need only a few online resources and translators. After all, tracing the crisis list of a given country would require nothing more than ordinary research. Maybe occasionally you would need obscure sources that need translating, but only for distant nations very far in the past. The only daunting aspect, of course, is that there are thousands of states that have existed. In fact, I could do it entirely myself if not for the sheer volume of effort.

When I first heard of generational theory, my mind immediately envisioned dozens of applications; of which, predicting the future was a very low priority. After all, if you only survey history in the last 20 years, then you can only predict the future in detail for the next 20 years. However, if you survey history in the last 3000 years, then you can find patterns to detail the next 3000 years, just not as precisely. Maybe later on you or someone else will develop a more detailed algorithm to predict the future on an annual basis, but for me predicting the past is much more important.

As a great man once said, historians are much more comfortable predicting the past than the future, and in my opinion that's rewarding enough. Imagine if all of history was neatly divided into hundreds of saeculums, all acting as parallel timelines to each other. Imagine how differently people would look at, say, the English Reformation if they knew it was paralleled by the Civil Rights movement. Or think of how much better we would understand the First Crusade if we new how it paralleled World War I. Blank or obscure periods of history could be filled up by comparing parallel eras later on. Conflicts in chronology can be settled by comparing parallel eras with known chronology. Civilization can be described as a one "epic" consisting of many "stories", where each story starts in a high and climaxes in a crisis.

Furthermore, if we trace out all the saeculums in the past, we may uncover larger patterns that can predict what kind of saeculums there will be over time. With such an understanding of history obtained, many mysteries of the past can be solved: how did the Roman Empire fall? how were the Pyramids constructed? what happened to the Harappan civilization? how did Christianity spread? how did the industrial revolution begin? All of these questions can be answered by comparing one time period to a parallel one.

At that point, after reinterpreting all of recorded history, can the future be predicted accurately. It becomes a simple matter of continuing previous patterns into the future. Of course, not much details can be extrapolated from this method - perhaps a brief summary of each decade - but it's a lot cheaper to create and can be projected extremely far into the future. Compared to millions of dollars spent on public polls and newspaper translations and I think it's a fair deal.

In other words, I think if you changed your goal from "predicting the future" to "reinterpreting the past" you could accomplish everything much easier. As far as I can tell, you would only need a few historical resources, nothing more.

Respectfully,
Nathan G