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9-Jul-14 World View -- Mideast war or peace? It all depends on what Hamas wants.


Hamas says that all Israelis are now targets

** 9-Jul-14 World View -- Mideast war or peace? It all depends on what Hamas wants.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e140709



Contents:
Hamas says that all Israelis are now targets
Hamas will decide whether it's war or peace


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Israel, Hamas, Gaza, West Bank,
Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas,
George Bush, Mideast Roadmap to Peace,
Yassir Arafat, Ariel Sharon, Lebanon, Turkey,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Iran

In light of those who currently occupy the WH, and Foggy Bottom, it would be foolhardy for Israel to engage in conventional combat in Gaza - many will die on both sides, and much like the Hezbollah conflict, little will be achieved as there appears to be no well thought out military objective, and perhaps even more importantly Israel has few friends in this Obama regime; a regime that won't hesitate to crucify Israel for its effort.

Asymmetric war brings many advantages, with the primary being stealth, yet all will know. Israel released three groups of Palestinian terrorist from their prisons in response to the Obama/Kerry peace plan demand. Finger all 74 of the released Palestinians, or at the very minimum those guilty of murder or terror bombing that resulted in deaths, then eliminate them over time one by one, as was done in response to the '72 Munich Olympic terrorist event. Asymmetric action gives a plausible deniability, that overt combat does not afford, while at the same time it does not squander military hardware and people that not easily replaced.

Covert action permits the cost to be deferred, with fewer casualties on both sides, and most assuredly the guilty will be punished. The sledge hammer is not always the most appropriate tool - to that end I would commend to you Sharon's book: Warrior. It's a work dedicated to the human intellect applied to what appears, at first blush, to be complex unsolvable problems.

So that's Israel's 7.8 million versus 123.2 million Arabs in the adjoining countries. There's little doubt who would win that war.

In fact Israel was already outnumbered like that in 1948 and 1967 and 1973. It always had a more efficient army with american-made up-to-date weapons

John wrote:The Arab nations and territories that adjoin Israel include Gaza - 1.8 million, West Bank - 2.7 million, Lebanon - 5.9 million, Jordan - 7.9 million, Syria - 18.0 million, and Egypt - 86.9 million.

So that's Israel's 7.8 million versus 123.2 million Arabs in the adjoining countries. There's little doubt who would win that war.

Before the 6 day war the Arabs counted up how many people, tanks, and airplanes they had and thought there was little doubt who would win. They were very wrong.

With live fire from Gaza, Israel has been running frequent bomb shelter practices for many years. There are good bomb shelters everywhere and people know where they are and will get in them fast when the alarms for incoming missiles sound. The Arabs don't have this. This alone could compensate for a factor of 10 difference.

Israel has this "Iron dome" that can stop most incoming missiles or airplanes. The Arabs don't have this. This alone could compensate for a factor of 10 difference.

The Israelis all have military training. It is mandatory. Many have their own guns at home. The Arabs don't have the same training. This can make a big difference.

The Israelis have developed all kinds of good weapons systems including drones. The Arabs have hardly developed any weapons. A quadcopter with a gun is going to be a really cheap and deadly weapon. I am not sure that the Israelis have this but I would guess they do and that the Arabs don't. This alone could compensate for a factor of 10 difference. http://dronewarsuk.files.wordpress.com/ ... e-wars.pdf

The Israelis have a smart and strong leader in Netanyahu. He fought in some of the previous wars. I suspect none of the Arab leaders are his equal. This can make a big difference.

The Israeli fighters will be protecting their families against an invader. The Arabs will be thinking that if they get killed they get 72 virgins. This can make a big difference.

Israel has is a single unified army. The Arabs are different countries with different training, weapons, communications, and interests. They will not fight as well together as the Israelis do. Easily a factor of 2 difference.

The Israelis have Nuclear weapons. I don't think any of the Arab states that adjoin Israel have Nukes. This alone can more than compensate for a factor of 10 difference.

Remember the Battles of Agincourt and Crecy. Just having more fighters does not always decide who wins. Weapons and tactics, moral, training, superstitions, leadership, terrain, who has a defensive position, motivation for fighting, rain, armor, etc. matter.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Agincourt
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cr%C3%A9cy

Anyway, I don't think the outcome of this war can be assumed just by counting how many people on each side. There is a lot more to war. As the other poster said, the Arabs outnumbered Israel in each of the previous wars. If numbers were all that mattered then Israel would not still exist.

If I had to guess, I would say Israel will come through the next war surprisingly well.

The one thing wrong with Generational Dynamics theory is it does not account for religion. I am 100% backer of Generational Dynamics except when it comes to Israel who is Yahweh's chosen people, even though they don't act like it, nor does the Israel people have any desire to be protected as they can defend themselves, He would not let the region be trampled on my Esau's and Ishmael's ancestors. I don't want to enter in a debate of who belv's in what. I'm just saying that comparing Israel's 7.8 million versus 123.2 million Arabs and giving the victory to the Arabs is a bit premature. Just sit back and watch what happens.

Austin wrote:The one thing wrong with Generational Dynamics theory is it does not account for religion.

Normal religion is some personal beliefs that don't bother anyone else. But Islam is also a political ideology of totalitarian world domination. Generational Dynamics views Islam as just another harmless religion, but it is not.

> So that's Israel's 7.8 million versus 123.2 million Arabs in the
> adjoining countries. There's little doubt who would win that
> war.

JULLIEN1 wrote: > In fact Israel was already outnumbered like that in 1948 and 1967
> and 1973. It always had a more efficient army with american-made
> up-to-date weapons

I'll try to explain this in more detail in a future article. The
salient point is that this is a generational crisis era, and so things
are very different than they were in previous wars. Israelis are too
overconfident, as they're making exactly the same erroneous
assumptions that you are -- that Israel won the past wars, and
therefore will win this war. If the Arabs turn against each other,
then Israel may survive. If the Arabs all turn against Israel, then
Israel won't survive. However, all wars eventually end, and crisis
wars particularly end with a compromise that supposedly guarantees
that no such war will ever happen again.

Austin wrote: > The one thing wrong with Generational Dynamics theory is it does
> not account for religion. I am 100% backer of Generational
> Dynamics except when it comes to Israel who is Yahweh's chosen
> people, even though they don't act like it, nor does the Israel
> people have any desire to be protected as they can defend
> themselves, He would not let the region be trampled on my Esau's
> and Ishmael's ancestors. I don't want to enter in a debate of who
> belv's in what. I'm just saying that comparing Israel's 7.8
> million versus 123.2 million Arabs and giving the victory to the
> Arabs is a bit premature. Just sit back and watch what
> happens.

I would respond by saying that you have no idea what Yahweh's plan is.
Perhaps his plan is to let the region be trampled on by Esau's and
Ishmael's ancestors, so that a new Israel can rise from the ashes.
That would be completely in the spirit of many historical Biblical
stories.

John wrote: If the Arabs turn against each other,
then Israel may survive. If the Arabs all turn against Israel, then
Israel won't survive.

Here is an interesting article, "Why Arabs Lose Wars":

http://www.meforum.org/441/why-arabs-lose-wars

Arab leaders have lied to other Arab leaders to get them to join a war. There is good reason they don't trust each other.

More:
http://www.h-net.org/reviews/showrev.php?id=7682
http://i.cfr.org/content/publications/a ... _Intro.pdf

Wow, John... kicked over a hornet's nest with this one.

NoOneImportant wrote:Wow, John... kicked over a hornet's nest with this one.