John wrote:
> Generational crisis wars are fought by the people, not by the
> politicians. There are 423 million Arabs in the region, but only
> 8 million Israelis. I think it will be more than "mowing the
> lawn."
vincecate wrote:
> Do you think any significant number of jets or tanks would come
> from other countries against the will of the politicians? What
> countries? Wars are fought by people with weapons. People without
> weapons don't really count. Next, if one side has weapons that
> let them kill the other without even risking their own lives,
> numbers no longer matter. With Iron dome no jets can bomb Israel
> but Israel can bomb anyone. Their tanks stop incoming missiles
> and probably slow shells enough they are not much risk. Nobody
> else has this in service yet.
> What other Arabs do you think are currently in a position to fight
> Israel? The Arabs make almost no weapons on their own, so it
> would only be if Russia or someone were supplying them with
> weapons that they would be able to fight. Supplies are used up
> fast in a war so it is dangerous to go into a war without supplies
> lined up. Who would supply weapons to the Arabs if they were
> fighting Israel now?
> It is just hard for me to see how you get a crisis war anytime
> soon for Israel and Palestinians.
> Last time Israel and Gaza fought nobody else seemed eager to join
> in and it seems they would have less inclination to do so
> now.
vincecate wrote:
> The first time, in 1948, it was maybe 200 million Arabs to 1/2
> million Israelis and the Israelis had no tanks or jets at the
> start. Compared to that, this will be like "mowing the lawn"
> (what Israelis call it when they have to bomb Gaza every now and
> then to get them to stop launching rockets).
Well, you're right that there have been three "mowing the lawn" wars
in Gaza in the last few years, where the "mowing the lawn" strategy
refers to damaging Hamas's infrastructure sufficiently to end the war,
only to have to fight the war again in a couple of years, after the
infrastructure has been rebuilt.
But what I'm saying that the emerging situation today is fundamentally
different than it's been. During those past three wars, the actions
were led by the Hamas leadership. Palestinians attacked when the
leadership told them to, and stopped attacking when the leadership
told them to stop.
But in the emerging situation, young people today are no longer
willing to listen to these leaders. According to the CIA World Fact
Book, 20% of Gaza's population are in the 15-24 age range, and so is
21% of the West Bank -- about 200,000 males in each territory,
or 400,000 young males total.
You say that you can't imagine how a crisis war could begin? How
about if those 200,000 young male Gazans blow holes in the walls, pour
across into Israel and start killing Israeli citizens
en masse
in their homes and villages? And how about if they're joined by those
200,000 young male Palestinians on the West Bank, who start with the
Jewish settlers and continue with the Jews in Jerusalem.
What good would Israel's tanks and bombers be then? You can't bomb
Jerusalem, and you can't bomb Israeli villages and settlements.
That's the difference. That's what a generational crisis war is like.
It's not two tanks shooting at each other. It's hand to hand combat
in homes, neighborhoods and streets by people armed with sticks and
knives. It's what happened in Central African Republic last year,
it's what happened in Rwanda in 1994, in Bosnia in 1994, and in
Palestine in 1947.
And by the way, that assumes that the bloody mess stays confined to
Israel and the Palestinian territories. The Palestinians are likely
to be joined by tens or hundreds of thousands from Jordan, Lebanon and
Egypt. Whatever happens, it will not be mowing the lawn.