Will Erdogan be the one who starts the CoC War?
Posted: Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:09 pm
We all know that Recep Tayipp Erdogan is a bad guy. But what many people don't realize is that he's not the leader of a backward, third world country. He's the leader of Turkey, a country that I personally would put in the top 10 most powerful countries in the world. That makes him all the more dangerous.
I'm not the first person to assert the claim that Turkey will be a major player in global affairs in the 21st century. In his book The Next 100 Years, George Friedman of STRATFOR explicitly claims that by 2050, Turkey will not be just a great power, but a superpower. The map provided at the link below shows what Friedman's predicted Turkish empire will look like. Its sphere of influence dominates the entire Caucasus, virtually the entire Middle East, eastern Ukraine (including Crimea), the western half of Central Asia, the eastern half of North Africa, and the southern half of the Balkans.
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/71 ... yu-iQp.jpg
That being said, I would not be surprised at all if Erdogan has read Friedman's book, or at least consulted with those who have, and the idea that American foreign policy would be oriented specifically to have Turkey serve as a great counterweight to Russia has emboldened his resolve to resurrect the Ottoman Empire.
Over the last six years (especially the last year), Erdogan's foreign policy has been getting more and more out of control. He's becoming increasingly erratic. First, he gave it his all to make sure that Syria fragmented so he could establish pseudo-spheres of influence in the country using pro-Turkish proxies. This nearly resulted in war between Turkey and Russia in November 2015 after the former shot down a fighter jet belonging to the latter in order to protect those occupied territories.
However, Erdogan's strategy fell apart after the July 2016 coup attempt, which he seems to suspect was coordinated by the United States and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has a very good reason to see Erdogan overthrown. The Saudis are currently headed towards bankruptcy by 2020 due to declining oil prices and its massive military spending to fund its proxy wars with Iran. As its economy weakens, the Saudis are in increasing danger of losing its hegemony of the Sunni Islamic world to Turkey (which has been managing its economy much more responsibly). If Erdogan were overthrown, Turkey's aspirations to dominate the Sunni world would be set back by years, if not decades.
As a result of the coup, Turkey has been moving away from the United States and closer to Russia. Its reconciliation with Russia was the main reason it was allowed to participate in the January 2017 Astana conference, which I see as a blatant attempt by Russia, Iran, and Turkey to legalize their imperial aspirations in Syria. Even before the Astana conference, I was warning people on Breitbart that we were about to witness the beginning of a "Scramble for Arabia" between Turkey and Iran that would start in Syria and eventually spread to the rest of the Middle East. The results of the Astana conference seem to have proven my fears to be correct.
After the Astana conference, it seems that Erdogan is now more confident than ever that a neo-Ottoman empire is in Turkey's future. Over the last six months, he has been acting more and more like a caliph. He has been making proclamations on behalf of all Muslims worldwide and calling for religious warfare in the West (especially in Europe). One of his more recent declarations was particularly odious, where he threatened to behead his political opponents. Given that he has attempted to impose his policies in other countries (think about what happened in the Netherlands and during his visit to the United States earlier this year), I see that threat as being aimed towards the whole world, not just within Turkey. The man's mad, I tell you!
Meanwhile, he's been acting increasingly belligerent towards the United States. He has sided with Qatar during the Qatar crisis and even gone as far as threatening to go to war with Saudi Arabia in order to protect Qatar. Turkey's military is strong enough to wipe Saudi Arabia's military off the map, so a Saudi-Turkish war would likely force the United States to intervene in order to protect its hegemony in the Persian Gulf. And then what? Turkey cries Article V and Article VIII, the United States is kicked out of NATO for waging war against another member, and loses its hegemony in Europe overnight! Fortunately for us, that scenario didn't happen, because during the crisis, Turkey and Germany got into a major diplomatic dispute, and talks to renew the Astana agreement collapsed, causing tensions between Turkey and Russia. Almost overnight, Turkey alienated not one, but two potential great power allies in a conflict with the United States, which is almost certainly why he's backed down on Qatar, at least for now. But he's not done yet. While the Qatar crisis is on hold, Turkey appears to be sabotaging American military operations in Syria by giving away secret troop locations, and also working with the Iranians to sabotage the Syrian ceasefire brokered by the United States and Russia by having their proxies move dangerously close to the border with Israel in an attempt to provoke it. Erdogan has a very good reason to sabotage the ceasefire, because if it holds, Putin will not longer have any use for the Astana agreement, and likely demand that Turkey either withdraw from Syria, or face war with Russia.
While Turkey appears to be on the defensive for now, it still has one weapon up its sleeve that could prove seriously problematic in the future: Trump's demand for NATO members to spend more on their militaries. All it has to do is play nice with Trump and Putin for the next few years, use Trump's demand to NATO as an excuse for a massive military buildup, and use economic ventures such as its attempts to purchase Deutsche Bank (whose assets are worth $2.1 trillion) to fuel its economy, and it could repeat the six year "miracle" of Nazi Germany. Remember, in 1933, Germany was a failed state. In 1939, it was on the edge of being a superpower. Six years from now is 2023, which is the year that Erdogan has stated to be the deadline for his "New Turkey" to be created. Given that Erdogan has been acting increasingly Hitlerian in both domestic and foreign policy, the question is, could Erdogan's Turkey be the Nazi Germany of the 21st century? Could we be, in the CoC War facing against an Islamic superpower instead of a massive Islamic insurgency backed by China? Could Erdogan in fact go down history as the man who started the CoC War?
I'm not the first person to assert the claim that Turkey will be a major player in global affairs in the 21st century. In his book The Next 100 Years, George Friedman of STRATFOR explicitly claims that by 2050, Turkey will not be just a great power, but a superpower. The map provided at the link below shows what Friedman's predicted Turkish empire will look like. Its sphere of influence dominates the entire Caucasus, virtually the entire Middle East, eastern Ukraine (including Crimea), the western half of Central Asia, the eastern half of North Africa, and the southern half of the Balkans.
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/71 ... yu-iQp.jpg
That being said, I would not be surprised at all if Erdogan has read Friedman's book, or at least consulted with those who have, and the idea that American foreign policy would be oriented specifically to have Turkey serve as a great counterweight to Russia has emboldened his resolve to resurrect the Ottoman Empire.
Over the last six years (especially the last year), Erdogan's foreign policy has been getting more and more out of control. He's becoming increasingly erratic. First, he gave it his all to make sure that Syria fragmented so he could establish pseudo-spheres of influence in the country using pro-Turkish proxies. This nearly resulted in war between Turkey and Russia in November 2015 after the former shot down a fighter jet belonging to the latter in order to protect those occupied territories.
However, Erdogan's strategy fell apart after the July 2016 coup attempt, which he seems to suspect was coordinated by the United States and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has a very good reason to see Erdogan overthrown. The Saudis are currently headed towards bankruptcy by 2020 due to declining oil prices and its massive military spending to fund its proxy wars with Iran. As its economy weakens, the Saudis are in increasing danger of losing its hegemony of the Sunni Islamic world to Turkey (which has been managing its economy much more responsibly). If Erdogan were overthrown, Turkey's aspirations to dominate the Sunni world would be set back by years, if not decades.
As a result of the coup, Turkey has been moving away from the United States and closer to Russia. Its reconciliation with Russia was the main reason it was allowed to participate in the January 2017 Astana conference, which I see as a blatant attempt by Russia, Iran, and Turkey to legalize their imperial aspirations in Syria. Even before the Astana conference, I was warning people on Breitbart that we were about to witness the beginning of a "Scramble for Arabia" between Turkey and Iran that would start in Syria and eventually spread to the rest of the Middle East. The results of the Astana conference seem to have proven my fears to be correct.
After the Astana conference, it seems that Erdogan is now more confident than ever that a neo-Ottoman empire is in Turkey's future. Over the last six months, he has been acting more and more like a caliph. He has been making proclamations on behalf of all Muslims worldwide and calling for religious warfare in the West (especially in Europe). One of his more recent declarations was particularly odious, where he threatened to behead his political opponents. Given that he has attempted to impose his policies in other countries (think about what happened in the Netherlands and during his visit to the United States earlier this year), I see that threat as being aimed towards the whole world, not just within Turkey. The man's mad, I tell you!
Meanwhile, he's been acting increasingly belligerent towards the United States. He has sided with Qatar during the Qatar crisis and even gone as far as threatening to go to war with Saudi Arabia in order to protect Qatar. Turkey's military is strong enough to wipe Saudi Arabia's military off the map, so a Saudi-Turkish war would likely force the United States to intervene in order to protect its hegemony in the Persian Gulf. And then what? Turkey cries Article V and Article VIII, the United States is kicked out of NATO for waging war against another member, and loses its hegemony in Europe overnight! Fortunately for us, that scenario didn't happen, because during the crisis, Turkey and Germany got into a major diplomatic dispute, and talks to renew the Astana agreement collapsed, causing tensions between Turkey and Russia. Almost overnight, Turkey alienated not one, but two potential great power allies in a conflict with the United States, which is almost certainly why he's backed down on Qatar, at least for now. But he's not done yet. While the Qatar crisis is on hold, Turkey appears to be sabotaging American military operations in Syria by giving away secret troop locations, and also working with the Iranians to sabotage the Syrian ceasefire brokered by the United States and Russia by having their proxies move dangerously close to the border with Israel in an attempt to provoke it. Erdogan has a very good reason to sabotage the ceasefire, because if it holds, Putin will not longer have any use for the Astana agreement, and likely demand that Turkey either withdraw from Syria, or face war with Russia.
While Turkey appears to be on the defensive for now, it still has one weapon up its sleeve that could prove seriously problematic in the future: Trump's demand for NATO members to spend more on their militaries. All it has to do is play nice with Trump and Putin for the next few years, use Trump's demand to NATO as an excuse for a massive military buildup, and use economic ventures such as its attempts to purchase Deutsche Bank (whose assets are worth $2.1 trillion) to fuel its economy, and it could repeat the six year "miracle" of Nazi Germany. Remember, in 1933, Germany was a failed state. In 1939, it was on the edge of being a superpower. Six years from now is 2023, which is the year that Erdogan has stated to be the deadline for his "New Turkey" to be created. Given that Erdogan has been acting increasingly Hitlerian in both domestic and foreign policy, the question is, could Erdogan's Turkey be the Nazi Germany of the 21st century? Could we be, in the CoC War facing against an Islamic superpower instead of a massive Islamic insurgency backed by China? Could Erdogan in fact go down history as the man who started the CoC War?