by Reality Check » Sun Feb 10, 2013 11:39 am
Trevor wrote:Well, we know that Turkey, Israel, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan are all in a crisis era, which is about 2/3rds of the Middle East.
One country where I'm not sure what location they are on the generational timeline is Yemen. I've been looking at their modern history and after a few days of looking at it, the best candidate for their previous crisis war is the North Yemen Civil War. When I look at their conflicts, that's the one that keeps coming up. They've got numerous other conflicts, including the 2011-2012 uprising, but the others read like violence for political gains, not the genocidal viciousness you would expect in a crisis war.
I'll continue the research, but right now, that's the one that jumps out at me.
Generational Dynamics predicts / follows populations based on the nation they belong to. But the concept of nationalism is not limited to arbitrary lines drawn on a map. Especially when those lines were drawn by third parties not living near the lines.
Arabs are a people who spread their ethnic group, their culture and their religion, out from the Arabian Peninsula primarily after 700 AD.
Many of the "countries" in the middle east and North Africa were created in the last 100 years by Europeans who either never lived there, or were just visiting for a few decades.
Syria for example; In the current civil war the majority of those fighting on the Sunni Arab side appear to identify more with a Sunni Arab nation ( empire ) that dominated North Africa and large parts of the Middle East for hundreds of years, than with a nation state of Syria. These would be the Muslim Brotherhood inspired, and Al Qaeda inspired, factions fighting on the Sunni Arab side of the Syrian civil war.
[quote="Trevor"]Well, we know that Turkey, Israel, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan are all in a crisis era, which is about 2/3rds of the Middle East.
One country where I'm not sure what location they are on the generational timeline is Yemen. I've been looking at their modern history and after a few days of looking at it, the best candidate for their previous crisis war is the North Yemen Civil War. When I look at their conflicts, that's the one that keeps coming up. They've got numerous other conflicts, including the 2011-2012 uprising, but the others read like violence for political gains, not the genocidal viciousness you would expect in a crisis war.
I'll continue the research, but right now, that's the one that jumps out at me.[/quote]
Generational Dynamics predicts / follows populations based on the nation they belong to. But the concept of nationalism is not limited to arbitrary lines drawn on a map. Especially when those lines were drawn by third parties not living near the lines.
Arabs are a people who spread their ethnic group, their culture and their religion, out from the Arabian Peninsula primarily after 700 AD.
Many of the "countries" in the middle east and North Africa were created in the last 100 years by Europeans who either never lived there, or were just visiting for a few decades.
Syria for example; In the current civil war the majority of those fighting on the Sunni Arab side appear to identify more with a Sunni Arab nation ( empire ) that dominated North Africa and large parts of the Middle East for hundreds of years, than with a nation state of Syria. These would be the Muslim Brotherhood inspired, and Al Qaeda inspired, factions fighting on the Sunni Arab side of the Syrian civil war.