Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

There are two primary issues with EMPs.

1. High voltage long line transformers. What is normally electrical ground over large geographic areas is changed by the intense magnetic field of an EMP, or solar storm, so that electrical ground is not the same everywhere. The result is that this change in ground causes currents to flow through the grid's long transmission lines into the long line transformers. That small amount of current causes induced high frequency noise and losses that generates extreme heat that destroy the transformer. Almost all of these transformers are very large, and are custom designed items, thus there is no "stock" availability of these items, and the facilities that produce them are already in production and thus have to "make room" to produce the needed item; that is, they have to fit the replacement's production into a manufacturing facility that is already booked with normal production items - a process that takes months. Additionally, virtually all of these high voltage transformers are produced only outside of the domestic US, thus once the "new" replacement transformer has been manufactured, it must find its way first to the US, then to the needed location. There are roughly 5000 of these very high voltage transformers in use throughout the US electrical grid. Some of these transformers are more crucial than others - but to the people who are left in the cold, in the dark their transformer is vital. This failure mechanism is known, and has indeed, and in fact caused the failure of high voltage long lines transformers in the past - it is a phenomenon, and failure mechanism that is well understood.

2. High density semiconductor input voltage excursion susceptibility. Virtually all dense semiconductor devices use very fine structures within them as a normal course of their design. These fine structures are susceptible to damage by relatively low voltage inputs that are beyond the design limits of the semiconductor device - many semis have a maximum input voltage of only 5 - 7 volts. That means that any input that exceeds this value may damage the device. To explain, this is similar to having a static electricity discharge killing a semi from excess input voltage - something long known to be a problem for very dense semiconductor devices. Equipment designers assure that under normal operation that their device(s) is protected so that static type discharge doesn't "hurt" the semiconductor(s) inside. An EMP is not a normal condition, the extreme magnetic field causes all wires, wires that would normally cause no difficulty, to act as an antenna that induce unwanted voltages into the semiconductor device(s) located inside the appliance. That antenna action in conjunction with an EMP can induce voltages that are capable of destroying the very fine input structures of the semiconductor(s) inside of the appliance that contains the semi(s), and thus causing the semi to fail. Prospectively anything with a processor, and lots of memory may be vulnerable: notebooks, PCs, smartphones, cars, programmable logic controllers, nuclear power plant control systems, water distribution control systems, ATMs, power plant control systems... et al. As there has never been a an EMP attack much of this is combination of testing and conjecture. But there have been past above ground nuclear tests that have caused electrical outages hundreds of miles distant from the point of the test. There are EMP descriptive observations of EMP phenomenon in technical literature that dates back to the early 1970s, so the phenomenon does exist, and is understood. While all of the items, and more, listed above may not be affected, some random, and unknown combination of the above devices must be considered to be vulnerable, and subject to failure due to an EMP attack.

This is a quick non-technical thumbnail designed to provide a quick understanding of the gross vulnerability problem of an EMP - it isn't comprehensive, or detailed. It may be expected that a successful EMP attack would, in essence, instantaneously place America, electrically speaking, back into 1835. For more comprehensive information refer to the very detailed six part Oak Ridge National Labs(ORNL) report prepared by Metatech Corp for the ORNL in response to a request from DOE, DHS, and FERC - Federal Energy Regulator Commission - dated January 2010.

http://www.ferc.gov/industries/electric ... sp?new=sc2

A way to do damage with little required sophistication? ---- If you want to read some scary stuff, here is one source "Hitler's Suppressed and Still-Secret Weapons, Science and Technology", by Henry Stevens. --- A while back while going through TSA security I jokingly mentioned the above book, ( a probably not to bright comment ) because I was experiencing additional security measures due to a carving made of organic material. Their response was a cold "we know". Having read the book, I understood their concern.

One of the problems today is that one can do great damage with little resources, due to the complexity of society and it's technology. We are going to have to make some kind of quantum leap to prevent our destruction, for it is becoming easier and easier to destroy society.

Q: Even if an EMP happened wouldn’t we be able to simply repair the grid and quickly restore power?

A: An EMP event would destroy the large electrical transformers needed for transmission and render them useless. US utility companies have few spare transformers in their inventory to replace those that become damaged. These massive transformers are no longer made in the United States and must be imported from overseas. Only a few foreign suppliers manufacture these transformers and it takes at least eighteen months to produce just one. With so few spare transformers, a widespread EMP event could cause blackouts literally lasting years.

http://deephaven.ca/emp-called-the-grea ... o-america/

Or in the case we are talking about, somebody targeting a few specific transformers that they know fall into this category.

From what I recall reading in 1991, there were many transformers that were replaced by the various crews that were involved in repairing damage from the ice storm but there was one transformer they didn't have the means to replace. From what I remember being told, it took a lot longer than 2 weeks to get it, but I copied the official record above. I remember being told RG&E lied and tried to whitewash what really happened but there is no corroborating documentation I can find in any forums. I believe is is accurate to say that the majority of the power was restored in 2 weeks.

at99sy wrote:So what I was apart of back in 1985-86ish is now becoming "known" to the mainstream? http://rt.com/usa/power-grid-knocked-ou ... tions-706/
From my post in Feb of last year.

cheers

sy

The study was inspired by an apparent sniper attack on an electric power station in San Jose, California last April. Snipers opened fire on the power transformers, knocking out 17 and causing millions of dollars in damage. Officials avoided a regional blackout in this case by rerouting the voltage of the path.

In 1994 I was in a government office building and saw a blueprint of the power grid for a part of the midwest lying in an empty office. I have no idea why anyone would have been in possession of this. I opened it up and took a look. The substations were marked and it was apparent that for example there may have been one critical substation leading in or out of Chicago that didn't have a backup route.

I asked a guy about that who had been in the military and had been an electrician, then retired. He seemed to know quite a bit about this and mentioned that if someone were to arc a copper wire across a high voltage inside the substation they could blow it out. His point was it would take minimal material and minimal investment to accomplish this; only knowledge of the internal workings. At some point along the way I read in the newspaper about kids who were casting fishing lines with copper wire on them over utility lines and blowing out the power. These were minor incidents because the kids didn't know what they were doing. Later, around 2007, another casual acquaintance mentioned that doing exactly what is in the story above could disable a substation. I was sort of aware of this too because I remembered an ice storm in an area served by Rochester Gas and Electric had blown a transformer in 1991 and it took 2 weeks for power to be restored to the area, as this was a critical transformer and they had no backup; a new transformer had to be special ordered and fabricated.

On March 3rd-4th, 1991, a devastating ice storm paralyzed a large section of Western and Central New York.

Utility crews were brought in from Ohio, Pennsylvania and Canada to aid in the restoration of power which was not accomplished entirely until March 16th.

http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/rocice.htm

If I remember right, it wasn't like anybody and everybody could make this transformer - it had to be made by an outfit in Canada. Anyone who has the knowledge to disable the right transformer and disable the outfit that can make it can screw things up pretty badly. With the open Internet and cyber spying going on, this has gone from being impossible to being feasible. Things were much safer in 1994 in my opinion when a few pieces of the puzzle were lying around but the information was all on paper.

So what I was apart of back in 1985-86ish is now becoming "known" to the mainstream? http://rt.com/usa/power-grid-knocked-ou ... tions-706/
From my post in Feb of last year.

cheers

sy

at99sy wrote:I was in the 75th Ranger Regiment from 1984-1988 and the internet of course did not exist at that point, however, we would have
table talk "think-tanks" periodically to brainstorm different ways that a "foreign" force could take out America. Keep in mind that I was an enlisted guy and so was everyone else at the table and fermented beverages were consumed in appropriate quantities. That said-we were trained to look for the unseen enemy, the impossibilities, the improbabilities, the million to one odds types of things so that we could make contingency plans for every thing that could possibly go wrong or occur during a mission. So we wanted to figure out how anyone could possibly take over America. Nukes were not an option since a conquering country would want the resources and would probably want the population for cheap labor. We got the energy corridor maps and discovered that there were only a few dozen major "hubs" in the country that electric power passed through, and the same with communication lines at that time. We also figured out where the key transportation routes were for rail and highway traffic.

It was determined that a few dozen small groups with explosives could disrupt nearly all of the power, communication, and transportation in this country in a few hour period. It wouldn't take long for the economy to be dead and the federal government to be completely ineffective. States for a brief time would likely become very powerful or very weak depending on their individual circumstances. The one thing we could never rectify was how then could the "foreign" force actually occupy and control the land? We could not ever come up with a scenario that would eliminate the heavily armed civilian militia or the armed forces themselves.

Destroying our economy I think is the easy part, and now I think I see how it could be pulled off. The economy is destroyed, the fed government is ineffective and desperate, the people are broke and scared, and in swoops the World Bank, IMF and other "lending institutions" under the control of others who will bail us out at the expense of signing over the rights to our natural resources and industry. Just like what has happened all over the world to countries like Jamaica and anyone else who accepted the "rescue" of the IMF. In short-no invasion is needed. destroy our economy, make people desperate and broke, send in the carpet baggers and WINNING!

just my 2cents. Thoughts?

tx wrote: > Thank you for your reply. Take it easy, the good thing is that you
> are dealing with a man, not a woman, I hope that make you feel a
> little better.

I have no idea what this means. I didn't know whether you were a man
or a woman, but my response would have been the same either way.

tx wrote: > So you are taking pleasure on other people's difficulty? You
> happened to be born in this nation, so? You were lucky because
> your grandparents or grand grandparents decided to live here. Will
> you laugh at your first generation ancestor? I am not happy with
> the words you chose but I understand you live in an angry
> world.

You're really misreading me if you think that I take any pleasure
whatsoever in what's going on, or in your plight, or in anyone else's
plight. I've lost many night's sleep for years because I could
foresee what was coming. I feel nothing but dread about what's going
on. And I feel the same dread for myself, for my friends and family,
and for all Americans, including Chinese-Americans. (Come to think of
it, if some bankers went to jail, then I would take pleasure in that.)

tx wrote: > This is wrong. I said I respected you and also I said I responded
> only because you post China negatively with high frequency and
> could mislead the reader and increase the tension. I said i didn't
> expect you change anything but it's my responsibility to give you
> feedback. ... I also understand you are trying to raise the
> public awareness by creating this website to get people prepared,
> the side affect is that you may increase the tension without your
> notice. Increasing hatred only hurts both sides. People respond to
> negative news and War is a bunch of nice people against
> another.

I've had these criticisms before -- that I'm going to trigger a war,
that I'm going to trigger a financial panic, or whatever. I really
consider those concerns to be silly. Nobody in Beijing or Washington
is going to, "Gee, John Xenakis says that there's going to be a war,
so let's start a war."

But yes, I write about China quite frequently, more frequently than
about other countries, because that's the most important story in the
world right now.

tx wrote: > I give credit to American.

> It doesn't take a Holocaust to make life miserable. Do you think
> these innocent Japanese-American were proud and happy to live in
> the camps? They would be talking about what later MLK talked
> about everybody was equal? Children, even they were born in the
> United States, were happy in the camp? Shame, depression,
> discriminated feeling, worthless feeling, lost directions, all the
> physical and psychological pain etc. These Japanese-Americans had
> to work extreme extremely harder than their blond hair peers to
> only get food to survive. Dignity is not the word in their
> dictionary. They also had to fight hard against their past
> Japanese dude HARD to earn words like good job, well done by their
> boss. How about that? that's the torture to the human nature. True
> it may not mainly caused by American, but war did have direct
> extremely negative impact on them.

I didn't say that living in an internment camp wasn't miserable. What
I said was that it wasn't a Holocaust.

This was related to your claim that my web site was going to cause a
Holocaust against Chinese-Americans. As I said above, I really
consider those concerns to be silly. But there's an additional point
to be made: Maybe there'll be an internment of Chinese-Americans, or
maybe there won't. But if we look at history, then there's no reason
to believe that any such internment would occur until AFTER the war
begins. If you're concerned about this, then you may wish to think
about what you can do to prepare yourself and your family. For
example, you may wish to make arrangements with a non-Chinese friend
to protect your possessions while you're gone. A prime purpose of my
web site is to give people the information they need to prepare for
what's coming.

tx wrote: > I care, maybe not 13 years ago, thank for part of your help. This
> country is the place for people to care about the politics, no
> doubt in my mind and people like me, no matter where you are from,
> can change. Regarding if I am fully aware that China is planning
> to attack the United States, my understanding is that as long as a
> country, any country in the universe has a military buildup, it's
> against it's enemy. I am also fully aware that Chinese people,
> traditionally, treat western people including from USA much much
> better than treat themselves. This is general from top leader to
> civilian. A lot of Chinese will give their last piece of bread to
> you if that means they die and you survive. I am not kidding
> here.

This is a remarkable statement that I've never hear before. Are you
saying that this is true of younger generations as well as older
generations? Would a young Chinese give his last piece of bread to a
starving Japanese citizen or Indian citizen?

tx wrote: > I have already made my choice the very first day. True, it is a
> hard choice if what you are predicting becomes reality. This
> country, United States, is a country respect human nature. I won't
> shame even at that time I will have complex feeling. People fight
> for you not because you force them to fight for you, is because
> you have something worth their fight.

I wish you the best.

Could it be that John can see what is going on and you are thin skinned? As broad as the US has been, it hasn't tried to claim the Gulf of Mexico or offshore Venezuela so it can own the minerals China is stepping on the Philipines, which is one hell of a long way from China. They are acting like a teen age kid with a fast car and a roll of bills in his pocket rather than grown people. They are territorially threating countries and people in all directions. Their Generals are making open threats. It would be one thing if this was some banana boat dictatorship, but it isn't. Instead it is a country that can pretty much destroy the enviroment of the entire world. I am sure China would get its licks in, but in such a fight it would a smoldering ruin. I think we would all be shocked what kind of technology the US has under wraps, like UFO's.

In any case, I don''t know why the US can't merely fire some kind o bug like was sent into Iran a few years ago back to the hackers? Then it might suddenly cause an outcry from the perpetrators and eliminate any doubt. I don't know much about computers, but I guess the back door idea is how they get in? Seems those wanting security might begin to figure out it might be worthwhile paying extra for some more secure hardware?

"Thank you for your reply. Take it easy, the good thing is that you are dealing with a man, not a woman, I hope that make you feel a little better."
"Again, I am a man. take it easy."

I take these back. I apologize if my words offended female readers.
Now my posts will be three this year.
tx

Dear John,

Thank you for your reply. Take it easy, the good thing is that you are dealing with a man, not a woman, I hope that make you feel a little better.

"This is so outrageous that it's hard for me to figure out where to
start.
You say that you like and respect what I write, except when I
criticize China.
So I assume you like it when I criticize America, or criticize Greece,
or criticize France, or criticize Egypt, or criticize Israel, or
criticize Iran, or criticize Pakistan, or criticize Russia, or
criticize Kenya, or criticize Wall Street. You like and respect those
criticisms.
I comment on dozens of countries around the world, and most of my
comments are criticisms. That's perfectly OK with you. You like
that.
But criticize China? Oh, no. You don't like that. You want me to
single out China for special treatment, and make China the only
country in the world that I don't criticize. Why do you think I would
EVER agree to that?"

This is wrong. I said I respected you and also I said I responded only because you post China negatively with high frequency and could mislead the reader and increase the tension. I said i didn't expect you change anything but it's my responsibility to give you feedback. First of all, how many times do you see tx on your message board? I read your articles very often and did not post a single word during past ~2years. Even I did before, usually two, one was my opinion and this other was thank you message because you were so nice to respond me, I sincerely thank you for that. On the other hand, how many times do you write about China? I understand you don't create these events relate to China, you report. That's why I don't post (I admit I did the day before yesterday and today). 2) I have to emphasize this, it takes a really really sick person to really enjoy the negative news as bad as people dying or on their way to die around world. How can I enjoy if I learn that my children will be part of it? 3) I didn't mention in my previous response, I respect you because you are generally not only a person with high integrity, but also an extremely hard worker, I can't write everyday, not even once a week. I only think there is a better way to do this. I also understand you are trying to raise the public awareness by creating this website to get people prepared, the side affect is that you may increase the tension without your notice. Increasing hatred only hurts both sides. People respond to negative news and War is a bunch of nice people against another.

"Your own remarks illustrate the same problem. You could have
criticized and condemned the generals' remarks. You could have
written to me, "John, on behalf of all Chinese people, I apologize to
you and all Americans for the outrageous remarks made by the Chinese
generals."
But you didn't do that. Instead of criticizing the generals'
war-mongering comments, you criticize me and call me a "fool" for
MERELY QUOTING the Chinese generals' remarks. So as far as you're
concerned, the Chinese generals can threaten war all they want, and
that's perfectly OK with you. You would never criticize the Chinese
generals. You criticize me for QUOTING the Chinese generals. That's
the height of hypocrisy."

I was not trained to represent generals, the president when I was young in China. it's simply not the way how generations grew up in that era there got educated. Maybe this is something I should learn here, thank you for pointing this out. I agree with you, military threat is not the right way to do, I don't support that. Again, as I mentioned, increasing hatred only hurts both sides, doesn't matter how to do it.

"During WW II, after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, and after the
Japanese maimed and tortured and murdered Americans on the Bataan
Death March, there was no Holocaust against the Japanese. Many
Japanese-Americans were interned in camps, and even this is still
considered to be a major historical embarrassment for America. But
there was no Holocaust."

I give credit to American.
It doesn't take a Holocaust to make life miserable. Do you think these innocent Japanese-American were proud and happy to live in the camps? They would be talking about what later MLK talked about everybody was equal? Children, even they were born in the United States, were happy in the camp? Shame, depression, discriminated feeling, worthless feeling, lost directions, all the physical and psychological pain etc. These Japanese-Americans had to work extreme extremely harder than their blond hair peers to only get food to survive. Dignity is not the word in their dictionary. They also had to fight hard against their past Japanese dude HARD to earn words like good job, well done by their boss. How about that? that's the torture to the human nature. True it may not mainly caused by American, but war did have direct extremely negative impact on them.

"Even though you don't care about politics, and you don't want to think
about it, I believe that in your heart you're very well aware that
China is planning to attack the United States."

I care, maybe not 13 years ago, thank for part of your help. This country is the place for people to care about the politics, no doubt in my mind and people like me, no matter where you are from, can change. Regarding if I am fully aware that China is planning to attack the United States, my understanding is that as long as a country, any country in the universe has a military buildup, it's against it's enemy. I am also fully aware that Chinese people, traditionally, treat western people including from USA much much better than treat themselves. This is general from top leader to civilian. A lot of Chinese will give their last piece of bread to you if that means they die and you survive. I am not kidding here.

"I don't blame you for not wanting to think about it, because you know that at some point you
and other Chinese-Americans are going to have to make a choice whether
to betray China or to betray the United States. I hope you find a way
to make the right choice."

So you are taking pleasure on other people's difficulty? You happened to be born in this nation, so? You were lucky because your grandparents or grand grandparents decided to live here. Will you laugh at your first generation ancestor? I am not happy with the words you chose but I understand you live in an angry world.

I have already made my choice the very first day. True, it is a hard choice if what you are predicting becomes reality. This country, United States, is a country respect human nature. I won't shame even at that time I will have complex feeling. People fight for you not because you force them to fight for you, is because you have something worth their fight.

Again, I am a man. take it easy.

Sincerely,
tx

I was in the 75th Ranger Regiment from 1984-1988 and the internet of course did not exist at that point, however, we would have
table talk "think-tanks" periodically to brainstorm different ways that a "foreign" force could take out America. Keep in mind that I was an enlisted guy and so was everyone else at the table and fermented beverages were consumed in appropriate quantities. That said-we were trained to look for the unseen enemy, the impossibilities, the improbabilities, the million to one odds types of things so that we could make contingency plans for every thing that could possibly go wrong or occur during a mission. So we wanted to figure out how anyone could possibly take over America. Nukes were not an option since a conquering country would want the resources and would probably want the population for cheap labor. We got the energy corridor maps and discovered that there were only a few dozen major "hubs" in the country that electric power passed through, and the same with communication lines at that time. We also figured out where the key transportation routes were for rail and highway traffic.

It was determined that a few dozen small groups with explosives could disrupt nearly all of the power, communication, and transportation in this country in a few hour period. It wouldn't take long for the economy to be dead and the federal government to be completely ineffective. States for a brief time would likely become very powerful or very weak depending on their individual circumstances. The one thing we could never rectify was how then could the "foreign" force actually occupy and control the land? We could not ever come up with a scenario that would eliminate the heavily armed civilian militia or the armed forces themselves.

Destroying our economy I think is the easy part, and now I think I see how it could be pulled off. The economy is destroyed, the fed government is ineffective and desperate, the people are broke and scared, and in swoops the World Bank, IMF and other "lending institutions" under the control of others who will bail us out at the expense of signing over the rights to our natural resources and industry. Just like what has happened all over the world to countries like Jamaica and anyone else who accepted the "rescue" of the IMF. In short-no invasion is needed. destroy our economy, make people desperate and broke, send in the carpet baggers and WINNING!

just my 2cents. Thoughts?