guest wrote:
> Could the potential war between the Koreas be avoided? SK doesn't
> want a war and NK leaders just want to survive. Couldn't a deal be
> reached? Do you think a war could break out soon or in the distant
> future?
The reason that a deal can't be reached is because the South is dozens
of times more better off than the North, with more personal freedom,
more political freedom, more food, more leisure, and so forth. Any
criticism of Kim Jong-un from the South or from the US or UN causes
him to completely freak out and threaten to rain fire down on the
world. Furthermore, as I've been describing, he's apparently
personally unstable, as he's put on 100 pounds of weight and he
drinks. He could launch an attack on someone at any time. So no path
exists for a peaceful deal.
Furthermore, Korea is right in the middle of Japan, China, Taiwan,
Philippines, the South China Sea. Any of these could explode into war
any day.
As for time frame, it could begin tomorrow, next week, next month,
next year, or five years from now. All of the countries in the region
are becoming increasingly xenophobic, increasingly nationalistic,
increasing belligerent, and increasingly militaristic.
Just to take one example: There is a G20 Leaders Summit to be held in
Hangzhou on September 4-5. There have been articles in Chinese media
urging the Chinese military to invade and annex the Philippines'
Scarborough Shoal as soon as the G20 summit ends. Maybe that's hot
air, maybe not. But it's certainly true that China is still
absolutely infuriated by being humiliated by the Philippines in the UN
tribunal in the Hague, and has already been stepping up its
militarization of its artificial islands in the SCS, and may be
looking for a way to get even with the Philippines for that Tribunal
victory.