Generational Dynamics World View News

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by FullMoon » Mon Jun 30, 2025 1:15 pm

Where I disagree with Navigator is my uncertainty about how closely these nations are collaborating. They might have a common goal, but there's a lot of bad blood between them, and their opposition to us is about the only thing they have in common. There's also India, a nation Russia has been close to historically, and China's enemy.
Weapons are a tradable commodity and they're being traded. We do it too. It doesn't necessarily buy influence more than the ability supply and resupply armaments. But that ability in and of itself doe buy influence. It also gets information which is valuable to everyone who's using those systems. But fundamentally, it's not like they necessarily trust each other or are collaborating on a deeper level. They just have a shared common adversary. Probably why having fewer such adversaries is better for our position. I still think John's original analysis or Russia and Iran being on "team West" is fundamentally correct. And it also doesn't mean that we'll have any special feelings of comraderie besides fighting a common adversary.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by FullMoon » Mon Jun 30, 2025 1:07 pm

thinker wrote: Sun Jun 29, 2025 9:28 pm Hello gents, I have a question for the guys that have military experience. I have seen videos of Iran's hypersonic missiles hitting Tel Aviv, I believe both China and Russia also have hypersonic missiles in their arsenals. I believe we are working on this tech but are net yet to the point where we would be able to use it. From what I have seen these things are unstoppable, Israel doesn't have an answer for them, do we (US) have anything that could stop them?
I've seen lots of different analysis but it seems to boil down to the simple matter of quantity/quality of missiles and drones vs quantity of systems capable of stopping the missiles. It seems that there's lots more missiles/drones available to all the actors vs air defense and attrition of both doesn't favor those who rely on air defense. But we're currently in the fog of war and available information is murky. There's plenty of videos showing Israel getting pounded, they've blocked all on the ground reporting of missile strikes and that's a tell. Apparently many people believe the current ceasefire is only :) to re-equip the air defense and missile stockpile. It's probably a strategic blunder to continue using up our stockpile of limited air defense because they take a long time to manufacture.
A three theater war would be an enormous challenge in the best of times but it's well known we've actually fallen behind in some critical areas related to this. We're seeing a pushback on 2 fronts that's been showing this and it's unfortunate for our position, considering the arsenal the PRC has amassed. They're getting real time data and weapons testing of our best systems and will probably make adjustments for making them better. And they're probably just watching us attrit our arsenal with a long lag time for manufacture.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by guest » Mon Jun 30, 2025 8:36 am

Seems like they might be stoppable with a directed energy weapon, e.g., laser, etc.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by thinker » Sun Jun 29, 2025 9:28 pm

Hello gents, I have a question for the guys that have military experience. I have seen videos of Iran's hypersonic missiles hitting Tel Aviv, I believe both China and Russia also have hypersonic missiles in their arsenals. I believe we are working on this tech but are net yet to the point where we would be able to use it. From what I have seen these things are unstoppable, Israel doesn't have an answer for them, do we (US) have anything that could stop them?

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Trevor » Sat Jun 28, 2025 5:52 am

When it comes to Russia and China being allies, it's important to remember that in the early days of the Second World War, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union collaborated with one another. Until June 22, 1941, the USSR butchered just as many people and according to some estimates, more.

The Soviets helped build the military Hitler turned on them, and I suspect Putin's making the same mistake. China's vulnerable to a blockade and their navy doesn't have the strength to challenge us, let alone adding Japan, South Korea, and others to the mix. Russia's invasion of Ukraine raises a lot of questions as to how impressive Chinese hardware really is. If it was as capable as they claimed, I suspect they'd have already launched their attack.

I fear we're going to make the same mistake as our ancestors. Even in 1939, Britain and France could have stopped Hitler without massive loss of life. When invading Poland, he left their western border almost undefended. His generals thought he'd lost his mind, but Hitler gambled that Britain and France wouldn't do anything substantial to stop him. He was right. Both nations were desperate to avoid another war, leading to far greater loss of life through their inaction. Think about today; after Afghanistan and especially Iraq, there's no attitude for more overseas adventures. Far as most people are concerned, let the world deal with its own problems.

Such an attitude is understandable, but it's shortsighted. We can't ignore the rest of the world, however tempting it might be.

China might want to have all their preparations ready, but no plan survives contact with the enemy. Since Covid, China is no longer seen as a rival: they're an enemy, to both parties. The more complicated the plan, the more that can go wrong, and while time is on their side in certain aspects, they've got massive problems of their own. The days of 10% growth are over, even taking their figures at face value.

Where I disagree with Navigator is my uncertainty about how closely these nations are collaborating. They might have a common goal, but there's a lot of bad blood between them, and their opposition to us is about the only thing they have in common. There's also India, a nation Russia has been close to historically, and China's enemy.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Trevor » Sat Jun 28, 2025 5:43 am

Adding to Navigator's point, Iran's nuclear program has been set back. Precisely how much, we don't know, but I suspect Iran knows their position is fragile. All the stories about their formidable defenses has proven to be a load of crap. Assad has fallen, Hezbollah has been defanged, Hamas is devastated, and the Houthis are weakened. Life hasn't been kind to them over the last year, and I think it's telling that even what condemnations have existed are half-hearted. There hasn't even been much of a "rally around the flag" effect at home. Even the Iranians are sick of their leaders.

It's one of the few areas where I agree with Trump.

Their fall might seem impossible, but Assad's rule looked secure until it suddenly wasn't. He fell in three weeks, now residing in Moscow, and could be handed over if Putin decides he's outlived his usefulness.

America's always had an isolationist streak. Our role as the world's policeman has never been without controversy, even when the Truman Doctrine was first conceived. WWII ended 80 years ago, and almost no one else remembers the terrible events that led up to it, so I'm not surprised that we're returning to seeing events as "someone else's problem." While we might have won in Iraq in a military sense, the victory tastes like ashes, and it's done a lot of damage to our reputation worldwide.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Phong Tran » Thu Jun 26, 2025 7:13 pm

Navigator wrote: Thu Jun 26, 2025 4:55 pm I am rather concerned with the Isolationist tendencies of many conservatives, esp in regards to Ukraine and Iran.
I believe that most conservatives, that have an isolationist viewpoint, narrows down their framework towards an internal nationalist argument that the United States is not a more prosperous country now than when it was in the 1950s-1960s. And thus, the questioning of whether it is worth being involved in external entanglements vs spending that money to rebuild the nation from within. To keep their logical conclusions simple, they most likely don't consider the geopolitical ramifications of if the US did take a non-involvement foreign policy.

This isn't finger pointing at conservative isolationist and blaming them for not seeing the bigger picture, it's just pointing out a blind spot in their framework that they may not be considering. I would probably consider myself a conservative isolationist, which is why I think I can somewhat speak on that behalf. The philosophical belief of "live and let live" is great, until just as (paraphrasing) Navigator said "the wolves are knocking at the door".

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Navigator » Thu Jun 26, 2025 4:55 pm

I am rather concerned with the Isolationist tendencies of many conservatives, esp in regards to Ukraine and Iran.

I get it that the US has gotten involved in many needless conflicts, such as Vietnam trying to re-unify itself, and of course the Iraq and Afghanistan messes.

Vietnam did itself no favors by trying to unify under a communist banner, causing the US to be very suspect, given what had happened in Korea - a war that HAD to be fought. Most military experts, Eisenhower and Ridgeway specifically, knew that Vietnam was a lost cause and that we should not go in there. JFK (later LBJ) were encouraged by Maxwell Taylor. Note that Taylor was commanding general of Dick Winters of "Band of Brothers" fame. Winters never had a single nice thing to say about Taylor, who was more politician than Soldier (and who somehow missed out on being surrounded with his unit during the Battle of the Bulge.

We had to go into Afghanistan due to them providing safe haven for Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda. Saddam Hussein should have been dealt with in 1990. In both cases, the plan to turn both countries into "beacons of democracy" had ZERO chance of success.

But I have started rambling.

We ARE going to go to war with China-Russia-North Korea-Iran. Just like in the 1930s when we could tell that we would be going to war with Germany-Japan-Italy. Saying that Ukraine is not our fight is the same as telling the Chinese and the Ethiopians in the 30s, and then the Poles in 1939 that their wars were none of our business. They eventually became our business, when the strength of the adversaries had become MUCH greater.

Any damage that we can do to China-Russia-North Korea-Iran now will only benefit us in the future. Peace at "any cost" is not a good plan for the long term, as it only strengthens our adversaries.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Navigator » Thu Jun 26, 2025 4:39 pm

A lot has happened, and I feel I have to apologize for not posting as consequential things have transpired.

My wife was cleared by her doctors to travel for a while, so that is what we have been doing. Today we were in Morocco. So, given our travels, and my focus on my wife, it is rather difficult to post regularly, or shortly after something happens.

The US strikes on Iran were certainly needed. I was rather surprised (pleasantly, I would point out) that the Iranians did not escalate. I thought for sure they were going to close the Straits of Hormuz.

The decision not to do so is probably based on a combination of the following factors:
1. The Iranians are freaked out that they have been infiltrated by Israeli backed traitors, and they need time to flush them out.
2. The Iranians are so dependent on their own oil sales that they cannot, even in the short term, close the Straits.
3. The Chinese are not done with their pre-war preparations, and need to stockpile more oil (which they are buying from Iran), and they asked the Iranians to hold off for a while.
3b. The Chinese have promised significant help to the Iranians if the Iranians hold off until they are ready to go head to head with US.

While others are correct about the WMD lies prior to the Iraq invasion in 2003, that war was never really about WMDs. It was about the fact that Saddam Hussein tried to assassinate George Bush Sr while he made a visit to Kuwait in 1993. So Bush Jr was just looking for an excuse to go after Saddam after winning the presidency in 2000. So 9/11, coupled with faulty intel that came from as few as 2 sources (who were telling the CIA what they wanted to hear), gave Bush the opportunity.

It is FAR different with Iran. We know they have a serious nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had conducted inspections on the Iranians for years, and even with the Iranians hiding a lot from them, there is a clear picture of a nuclear weapon program. Previous US administrations have been idiots in how they handled this. From "negotiations" that gave the Iranians everything they wanted, to us allowing the Germans to sell high end centrifuges to them.

My hope is that we/Israel did indeed do serious damage to their nuclear program. And if so, Trump deserves a LOT of kudos for having the guts to do it.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Higgenbotham » Wed Jun 25, 2025 12:04 pm

FullMoon wrote: Mon Jun 23, 2025 11:47 am I was thinking Trump might be the Grey Champion. But that would mean we have a successful resolution of the crisis and start rebuilding a better future.
Trump can still be the Gray Champion. Just not the kind of Gray Champion who has appeared in America in the past. He is a Boomer. Strauss and Howe identified that as a possible problem in their book.
Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2025 4:02 pm Mentioning Von Neumann reminded me that Roosevelt had his "Dollar a Year Men" and the immigrant Jewish Manhattan Project scientists, while Trump is in the process of assembling the likes of Elon Musk and the H1-B Indian "Tech Bros" around him. It's already been discussed that, while Trump fits the correct mold to be the Gray Champion (Obama did not), it's an open question as to whether he has the temperament and resources to successfully pull it off. Some quotes from Strauss and Howe were reproduced to support that notion.
Khanna, a House Democrat who represents Silicon Valley and a potential future presidential candidate, has known Musk for more than 10 years. In an interview, he called Musk an “an extraordinary entrepreneur” and said that he fits the mold of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s “dollar-a-year men,” the corporate executives who were paid a symbolic salary of $1 annually to help the federal government mobilize for WWII.

Khanna said he has “exchanged texts” with Musk since Trump tapped him to head DOGE. He declined to “go into private exchanges” but said they have discussed “the places where we can collaborate.”

“We have a candid conversation. He also knows where I disagree with him,” he said. “We need to engage these technologists and builders to be part of our coalition, but without compromising our values.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/12/1 ... hip-000579

There are a lot of reasons to think that this is not an apt comparison. But first it would behoove me to further investigate who Roosevelt's dollar a year men were and what they accomplished. Also, Trump's recent appointments and support of the Indian "Tech Bros" and H1-B has caused a backlash from MAGA voters who feel they have been betrayed. I don't see that anybody has attempted to compare the Indian "Tech Bros" to the eminent Jewish Manhattan Project scientists, but there's still plenty of time for that. There are a lot of reasons to think that, in the event that comparison is attempted, it is not apt either.
Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 3:13 pm
Strauss and Howe wrote:As the next Gray Champion, the Boom Generation will lead at a time of maximum danger—and opportunity. From here on, Boomers will face the unfamiliar challenge of self-restraint. Having grown up feeling that G.I.s could always step in and fix everything if trouble arose, Boomers have thus far pursued their crusades with a careless intensity. In the Fourth Turning, G.I.s will no longer be around as a backstop, and the young Millennials will follow the Gray Champion off a cliff. If Boomers make a wrong choice, history will be unforgiving.

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