6-Feb-13 World View -- China locks radar on Japanese targets

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Expand view Topic review: 6-Feb-13 World View -- China locks radar on Japanese targets

Re: 6-Feb-13 World View -- China locks radar on Japanese tar

by solomani » Thu Feb 07, 2013 9:04 pm

Reality Check wrote:.
John wrote:There is a striking analogy between China today and Germany before World War I.
This would appear to be a much stronger analogy than World War II.

From what I understand, what really caused World War I was Germany's strong, untested, belief in their own military superiority and the strong desire of the Germans to have an armed confrontation to prove it.

...
Its not quite that simple. Germany was the pre-eminent power of its time culturally and, apart from Empire, militarily as well. One of the key root causes for WWI was when Germany decided to buck the pecking order of the world by building a fleet to challenge the British. Up until this point the UK was fine to let Germany continue to prosper economically and politically but they could not bear to see a consummate increase in Germany's ministry power by the most importent benchmark of the era - battleships. England then used its strength - a key one being diplomacy - to form a coalition against Germany to contain her.

It lead to war but it worked. Germany was reduced significantly and humbled and the British Empire puttered on for decades more before collapsing due to internal issues. English culture came to dominate the world without challenge until this very day. And I would argue it took Germany 70 years+ to recover from that reduction by the British and it has never become pre-eminent again.

I see the same thing to a certain degree happening now. China wants to upset the world order and is simultaneously expanding rapidly its military and economic power as well as itspolitical influence. Its natural for that to provoke a reaction. That reaction could lead to war but I doubt there will be global conflict (or even direct conflict between the USA and China) because of the retraining nature of nuclear armaments. I hazard to guess China will be reduced economically and politically via trade and diplomatic coalition (already happening).

Re: 6-Feb-13 World View -- China locks radar on Japanese tar

by solomani » Thu Feb 07, 2013 8:50 pm

Reality Check wrote:
NoOneImportant wrote:
Those same politicians, of both parties, are also telling the voters that the current U.S. standard of living based on the U.S. government borrowing an additional 10% of the Gross Domestic Product each year, without paying anything back, can continue forever, plus or minus a few percentage points.

Those same politicians, of both parties, are also telling the voters that the trade deficits can continue forever and that fewer and fewer people working each year, even though the population continues to grow every year, is not a crisis.

So the American voters may be morons to believe the above, but they have not been given a choice about paying for a national defense or not, and the voters have not had the opportunity to make the choice you claim they have made.
The leaders of a country generally reflect the electroate. So if the leadership are spendthrift vacuous and arrogant weaklings whats that say about the people who voted them in?

I expect the US electorate will learn a hard lesson over the next 4 years and hopefully you get some sanity back after that. Be good when the divisive baby boomers are all gone.

Re: 6-Feb-13 World View -- China locks radar on Japanese tar

by gerald » Thu Feb 07, 2013 8:17 pm

Quote correction--

from http://urbanlegends.about.com/od/dubiou ... _quote.htm

Update: A historical source has been found for one variant of this quote. The source is Boris Bazhanov's Memoirs of Stalin's Former Secretary, published in 1992 and only available, so far as I know, in Russian. The pertinent passage, which appears near the end of chapter five, reads as follows (loosely translated):

"You know, comrades," says Stalin, "that I think in regard to this: I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this — who will count the votes, and how."

Re: 6-Feb-13 World View -- China locks radar on Japanese tar

by gerald » Thu Feb 07, 2013 8:08 pm

And who ARE the voters? - the uneducated , the illiterate, the illegal and the nonproductive? Oh and more votes cast then registered in the district?

Josef Stalin -- supposedly said
"Those who cast the votes decide nothing.
Those who count the votes decide everything."

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Re: 6-Feb-13 World View -- China locks radar on Japanese tar

by Reality Check » Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:37 pm

NoOneImportant wrote: That era of an American dominated peace is being "fixed," by an American electorate no longer willing to, as Kennedy put it: "...bear any burden, pay any price..." in defense of freedom, neither at home nor abroad.
The politicians of both parties are telling the voters that United States is the undisputed, one and only, super power of the world, and that no country will ever attack the United States with nuclear weapons. No need to even worry about it.

Those same politicians, of both parties, are also telling the voters that the current U.S. standard of living based on the U.S. government borrowing an additional 10% of the Gross Domestic Product each year, without paying anything back, can continue forever, plus or minus a few percentage points.

Those same politicians, of both parties, are also telling the voters that the trade deficits can continue forever and that fewer and fewer people working each year, even though the population continues to grow every year, is not a crisis.

So the American voters may be morons to believe the above, but they have not been given a choice about paying for a national defense or not, and the voters have not had the opportunity to make the choice you claim they have made.

Re: 6-Feb-13 World View -- China locks radar on Japanese tar

by Reality Check » Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:19 pm

NoOneImportant wrote:And whether all of the above may be true, or not,
As to that.

If you are too lazy to even look it up for yourself, then that speaks volume's about the veracity of your posts.

Re: 6-Feb-13 World View -- China locks radar on Japanese tar

by Reality Check » Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:18 pm

This thread was originally about Germany starting world War I, as an analogy to China starting World War III.

IMHO, a much better analogy than World War II.

Re: 6-Feb-13 World View -- China locks radar on Japanese tar

by NoOneImportant » Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:17 pm

And whether all of the above may be true, or not, the saber rattling on the part of both the Chinese, and Japanese is the direct result of an ascending belief, world wide, in the impotence of America. And while there have been wars since the end of WWII, there has been no conflict of global scale, i.e. national jeopardy, since 1945 - a period rapidly approaching 70 years. This is one of the longest periods of sustained peace in Europe for the last 1500 years.

That era of an American dominated peace is being "fixed," by an American electorate no longer willing to, as Kennedy put it: "...bear any burden, pay any price..." in defense of freedom, neither at home nor abroad.

Re: 6-Feb-13 World View -- China locks radar on Japanese tar

by Reality Check » Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:12 am

NoOneImportant wrote:Hitler actually sought peace with the British, and the French after the fall of Poland.
Regarding the French, I believe it is wrong that Hitler ever intended to do anything other than to attack and defeat France.

After France and Great Britain declared war, but refused to attack Germany, Germany did negotiate while moving troops from Poland to the western Germany, but ...

Germany had planned this all along, that is why they had negotiated, what was at the time of Germany's attack on the Low Countries and North Eastern France, the still secret peace treaty with Russia that divided Poland. To the rest of the world it appeared that Russia had stood up to Hitler by defending part of Poland and Hitler had backed down.

German World War II battle plans had been, all along, to correct the errors they made by not overwhelming the Low countries fast enough in World War I and to capture Paris by flanking the French Army and attacking from the north. This was the Blitzkrieg plan.

Hitler fought in the trenches against the French in World War I and had no respect for the French Army.

But the French Army was the Largest Army in the World before World War II and had the most tank killing artillery and the most infantry killing artillery of any army. On paper the French Army alone could not lose to a German Blitzkrieg if they just dug in and fought.

The difference between World War I and World War II is that large divisions of Low Country infantry, in fortified strong points, surrendered to handfuls of German airborne troops dropped among their positions ( without even putting up a serious fight ), allowing German armored divisions to cross bridges unopposed. French Troops simply did not dig in and fight allowing German armored divisions to threaten to cutoff British expeditionary forces in Northern France from the Sea.

Most military history accounts show the German commanders did not believe in their own war plans because the Low Countries had much better defensive positions prepared than they did in World War I and the German commanders did not expect small numbers of lightly armed airborne troops to be able to defeat entire divisions of dug in and heavily armed infantry when the infantry merely needed to hold their strong points with unlimited stocks of ammunition and food available to the defenders.

German commanders also did not believe that French troops bypassed by German Armored divisions would simply run away and not attack and cutoff the supply lines Germans needed to drive all the way to Paris. Those same supply lines would have been needed to attack British forces from the flanks or from the rear. Germany simply did not have the infantry needed to protect their supply lines from the worlds largest army, virtually all of which was undefeated and behind German front lines after the German armored and mechanized divisions by-passed them.

The French Army commanders refused to stand and fight and thus convinced the British Army in North Western France that the British eastern flank and the British southern rear were at risk of German surprise attack.

German commanders were reluctant to engage the large British expeditionary forces on the ground when the German tanks and mechanized vehicles were in danger of running out of fuel and the largest army in the World was undefeated to their rear. The British were in the process of retreating without their equipment. Force the British to stand and fight to the death with their equipment and that might have encouraged the French to get a second wind.

The commanders of Low Country divisions in fortified defensive positions that could have held out for months without relief against armored divisions, did indeed refuse to take the causalities the would have been required to defeat the small numbers of airborne German troops that had landed among their strong points, and instead these Low Country commanders surrendered entire divisions to small numbers of airborne German troops who lacked sufficient numbers to even guard their unexpected prisoners.

French commanders refused to attack tanks with artillery at close range and refused to launch infantry attacks against German infantry defending German supply lines.

British commanders chose not to commit their troops to fight to the death for France and instead abandoned British equipment in France and bombed and sank the French Navy in French ports.

If you are correct in your claim that wars are always started by people who believe the enemy will not fight, then in this case the German leaders were more correct, than incorrect, in the early years of World War II ( 1939 and 1940).

Re: 6-Feb-13 World View -- China locks radar on Japanese tar

by Reality Check » Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:17 am

NoOneImportant wrote:
Regarding the Persians, and Alexander - if memory serves me - there were three major battles between Alexander, and the forces of Darius. Alexander on all three occasions was victorious.
Correction, there were three major battles for the much smaller Greek army, but only one major battle for the Army of the Persian Empire.

The first battle was between a joint Army of Persian frontier forces, the occupation forces of one Persian Governor, and one Greek Army on one side, and another Greek army under Alexander on the other side, near what is now the border of Greece and Turkey.

The Persians retired from that battle and allowed the Greeks to fight it out.

The second was near present day Lebanon and was between regional occupation forces of the Persian Empire and the Greeks. Both sides fought and the Greeks won.

The final major battle, the only major battle from the huge Persian army's point of view, was between the entire massed armies of the Persian Empire and the much smaller Greek Army on ground favorable to the Persians on the plains of Iraq.

No one, including the Greeks, expected the much smaller Greek army, far from supply lines, to win that battle. All the Persians had to do was stand and fight and the Greeks did not have a chance. Only the Greek light cavalry had any chance of escaping, and then only by abandoning the rest of the Greek army.

But the Greeks stood and fought to the death with their leader, while more than half of the Persian Army, including the Emperor and his royal guard, abandoned the battle field shortly after the battle started.

The question is not who won, but is the belief that the enemy will lose because they will not fight if you do fight, always wrong? You claim that belief is always present in the army(s) that started the war, if so, it is not always wrong.

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