When a currency fails the price of gold in that currency never peaks, it just keeps going up. So there are over 100 cases where some paper money failed and gold never came back down in that currency. So if the dollar/yen/pound/euro is going to fail (get hyperinflation) then we won't see the price of gold in that money every go back down. So the exception to your rule is when a currency fails. This exception happens alot. Average unbacked paper money fails in like 28 years. The US has gone 40 with unbacked paper money. It is not clear how one should calculate the odds of the dollar failing, but I am sure it is much higher than the average person believes.OLD1953 wrote:At bottom, the simplest and most basic reason not to get in any PGM at this time is this: everyone is talking about it. That's the #1 rule for PGM and for investing in general. You can forget everything else, but you have to remember, when everyone is talking about it, it's time to bail out. The top has been reached and possibly even passed.
This is very easy to test. Simply search for counter examples. Find the person who made money (and didn't lose it) in houses or stocks or bonds or anything of the sort, AFTER everyone wanted in because that was the place to put your money. You can't find more than a very few who actually got out with a whole skin, while it's dead easy to find hundreds that lost everything because they followed the herd. The herd is always too late.
And an anticdote just because. I buy and sell gold. I have more than 100 times as many people selling gold to me as buying from me. The buyers are the more successful businessmen. When I get more buyers than sellers I will agree we are in a bubble, but it does not look close to that yet from my experience. Others can reasonably ignore this one data point, but I think about it...