Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
thrive
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2009 11:33 am

CNBC Article: Banks Flooded With Cash

Post by thrive »

Today there is an article on CNBC.com “In Cautious Times, Banks Flooded With Cash” and it seems to confirm Richard Koo's statements that banks, businesses, and people are paying down debt.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45027309

It reminds me of the April 2011 Business Insider's article on Koo saying, "this flood of cash isn't driving economic growth because banks, businesses, and people are paying down debt. Koo says that only the government can step in to spend the excess savings in the market."
John wrote:A web site reader has just called my attention to any article
where Richard Koo explains why quantitative easing has failed,
and why the U.S. is following exactly the same path as Japan.

> Here's Richard Koo's New Blistering Presentation On Why QE2 Has
> Been A Disaster

> Gregory White | Apr. 11, 2011, 10:57 AM

> Monetary policy has failed alone to lift the U.S. economy, because
> the private sector is obsessed with minimizing debt, according to
> Nomura Chief Economist Richard Ko.

> Speaking this weekend at George Soros' Institute for New Economic
> Thinking conference at Bretton Woods, Koo outlined why the
> U.S. and Europe have missed the lessons of the Japanese
> experience.

> Koo's presentation explains how the U.S and Europe have expanded
> their monetary base, but that this flood of cash isn't driving
> economic growth because banks, businesses, and people are paying
> down debt. Koo says that only the government can step in to spend
> the excess savings in the market.

> http://www.businessinsider.com/richard- ... 011-4?op=1
Lots of graphs follow.

John

John, I appreciate your thorough (as always) evaluation of Richard Koo's theories in your response to me September 5, 2010 (I won't quote it here due to its length.)

For me, there is at least a small element of hope for economic recovery in Richard Koo's theories (unlike everything else I've seen/read/heard anywhere -- and I know there's not much (if any!) buy-in from John or others on this forum, but at least Koo's ideas get floated here -- thanks for that).
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

We understand Keynes and Koo's resolve and concerns.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_Keynesianism
I feel many of us around here understand Constitutional responsibility's regardless of red or blue pill verbiage.
Capital has subordinate duties and responsibilities which we do well under temporate conditions.
My point narrowed is we understand how we got here and as for myself it was worth digesting what the Man said.
The other side of the coin is those who did "by choice of calculation" put us in this political stasus.
Hope defered as Solomon warned does have a result also.
Euro head pass the blame to the American Press to curent volatility on market news.
It just keeps getting more interesting in reports...
richard5za
Posts: 898
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

Higgie, are you still short on the S&P?
A couple of commentators have recently been saying words to the effect of "dangerous headline driven market at present with little regard for the fundamentals". Interesting for me because on technical analysis I am seeing a strong sell signal for S&P, that the fundamentals are fully in place, and over the next 4 to 6 weeks I want to see if I am right. Clive Roffey is a lot more skilled than I and is also predicting a downward movement.
Anyone interested in watching the weekly Roffey show can view it at this URL:
http://www.summit.co.za/current-show/roffeyreview.html
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7998
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

richard5za wrote:Higgie, are you still short on the S&P?
Yes, still 100% short.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
richard5za
Posts: 898
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

Higgenbotham wrote:Yes, still 100% short
My forecast is that you will make good money.
I am now up 8% on gold and 9% on South African gold miners
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7998
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

richard5za wrote:
Higgenbotham wrote:Yes, still 100% short
My forecast is that you will make good money.
The market didn't do what I expected today, but tonight I reviewed things and decided to stay short. As you know, sometimes I will pull out and look for a better place to enter, as I did in 2009, 2010, and more recently. The market seems to have good momentum but it also seems late in the game. As I see it, the endpoint of the game is going to be lower stock prices, either now or soon enough, so making short term adjustments gets more risky. It's likely I will be staying short and not really talking much about it. For some reason, the day to day nonsense and trying to adjust positions to the "tune of the day" just doesn't interest me as much anymore (like the nonsense that came out of Europe yesterday is what I mean).
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
OLD1953
Posts: 946
Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2009 11:16 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by OLD1953 »

The Constitution is a fairly open ended document, there really isn't much the government is restricted from doing. "Intent of the founders" is often quoted, but actually has no force, and really very little meaning, the founders were a very dissimilar group ranging from Hamilton to Jefferson. The "freedom of speech" mentioned in the first amendment, for example, going by the founders discussions was directed at political speech only, the city of Boston felt perfectly able to ban thousands of books because they didn't like the speech they represented as being too racy. Not that many of the early Americans didn't consider such as terribly prudish:

http://web.campbell.edu/faculty/vanderg ... onial.html

***
A major issue that Puritan leaders struggled against was the commonly-accepted view that legitimate sexual relations could begin at the time of engagement, rather than waiting for the wedding. "Puritan orthodoxy had to contend with alternate beliefs and standards even among those who considered themselves respectable, God-fearing men and women: the covenanted community itself proved to be a hybrid culture" (Godbeer 22; see also, 7, 9). Many New Englanders followed a view common in England that "the boundary between illicit and licit sex was crossed once a couple became committed to each other," even though church leaders argued strongly against this (Godbeer 3).
***
Cohabitation: cohabitation was also prevalent in the 17th century. John Miller, a minister who traveled through New York in 1695, �was appalled to observe that �many couples live[d] together without ever being married in any manner of way.� It was not uncommon, he reported, for such couples to separate after several years of living together, whereupon both would �take unto themselves, either in New York or some other province, new companions.� Those who did �intend to be married together� often engaged in �ante-nuptial fornication,� which was �not looked upon as any scandal or sin�� (Godbeer 8).

Godbeer adds that it was not unusual for early Americans to pass from one cohabitational relationship to the next with scant regard for the formalities of divorce and remarriage� (41).
***

It would be easy to provide a number of such references, largely unknown outside the academic community. Myth overtakes reality in any history of more than a century past, and the "purity" of our ancestors is always a large part of such myths - and you can find quotes from historians regretting the "degenerancy" of the "modern" age all the way back to the early Greeks.

The occupy movement is a natural reaction to something that's been going on for quite a few years now, the use of public funds to prop up the wealthiest one tenth of one percent of the US population. A list that only gives the high points of that over the last few decades is pretty impressive, S&L crisis, LTCM crisis, dot com bubble, subprime mortgage crisis and bubble and these are only the major ones inside the USA, ignoring minor things like the salvation of the Hunt brothers. Even discounting the actions by the Fed, there were trillions of dollars poured into various risky ratholes where the top .1% had stashed large sums they were in fear of losing. Don't forget our support for a number of other countries which had their own various failures ongoing during that period. It is not an exaggeration to believe that without this government support, there would be far fewer wealthy persons in the world today, certainly there would be many fewer in the USA. While people tend to ignore such issues in "normal" economic times, in hard times the question of "what did my tax dollars go for" becomes uppermost in peoples minds.

The reactions on both the left and right were inevitable, so we have both the tea party and the occupy movements (and I'll wager you can easily find people who've turned out for both) which essentially are yelling for the same thing, for the government to quit propping up the .1% and to let them assume their own risks. I've yet to hear a single person interviewed in either movement who thought the bailouts were just perfect.

Koo is correct or somewhat correct, though it may be better to just focus on infrastructure improvement and let business rebuild itself. This recent penchant for the government to "let business do it all" and not get their hands dirty is costing a ton of money in added costs.

Semantic confusion abounds when reading any articles about banks or corporations or business in general. Both banks and corporations, not to mention businesses in general, are organizations of people. Actions by the "banks" are actions taken by people. There is no such thing in reality as a bank or corporation, both terms are used to describe legal fictions that grant certain rights to organizations of people to take certain actions and (hopefully) turn a profit without causing social disunity. This seems to be very easily forgotten by the various business writers.

Middle of the night and I'm rambling a bit. Oh well, let it stand.
richard5za
Posts: 898
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

Higgenbotham wrote:The market didn't do what I expected today
Economics and finances has been a life long interest, but I find that when I am down on an investment my interest is lower than when I am making money.
I picked gold some years ago when I decided to exit general equities, simply because of the long term upwards trend (which of course will change at some future stage). But you are less likely to make mistakes if you go with a long term trend. I don't leverage at all. The stocks are paid for; no debt at all. In 2008 I bought some gold miners just before the gold price corrected down and I didn't have a stop loss in place: I sat on those shares for a long time, feeling quite foolish and uncomfortable, before prices corrected up and I ended up making a very nice profit. We love winning but I think we all hate losing.
I couldn't do what you do though. If you can hang in long enough I have no doubt you will make good money on your shorting of the S&P. The problem is that if the market goes the wrong way, there comes a point when your investment gets liquidated. Which is why my nerves would never handle going short.
Good luck. As I said before I hope you make a bundle.
richard5za
Posts: 898
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

Higgie, here is Clive Roffey's chart on the Dow published this morning. It may offer some encouragement
Dow 27Oct2011.jpg
Dow 27Oct2011.jpg (73.69 KiB) Viewed 4840 times
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/and-now-s ... ugh-hendry
paradox

Old, I agree with your view.
In addition http://www.earlyamerica.com/review/2005 ... or_not.htm
I would convey wood was the commmodity play of the day missed. Home invasion from revenue parasites boiled to severe dissent.
The different tip toe around revenue harvestors "action items" was just cause and effect from the Indian wars and the Crown
needed to fund. My wifes family had family on Drummond island and a unknown British Soldier was and is buried there.
I have seen the grave there of my forgotten cousins. My family left England when Virginia was colonised so I was bound
by the Soldiers fate lost from privation from illness so long ago on my discovery. My point being in any age as they say
if good's do not move Soldiers do. As for the position we are in today I will grant you indeed the Moral compass has gravity
we under estamate. When does the division of labor separate from the perception that money is treated as shocks to the
economy to bubble assets from the camps of educated men? Spending today is a tax since we all know debt is a future claim
to labor. When the left and right think locally to lucid balance the Constitutional levy for Defence is a conversation of reasonable
people. As I mentioned I pray for the return of my Nephew from the middle east and my Brother retired regular Army after numerous
tours. As mentioned after the 27th I would fade the equity positions. As mentioned look for the shock mechanisn's from the Keynasian
camp and in addition the bubble asset classes from the Austrian's. I think you already know my logic of which camp.
Given is Fisher (1925) where he attempt to empirically show that it is the instability of the purchasing power of the dollar that is the problem, not the business cycle per se. Mainstream economists also dismiss the idea of the business cycle and that the cycle is really just “shocks” and “real factors” that cause changes in the economy. See for example Milton Friedman’s (1993) plucking model. He even discovered the famous Phillips curve (which depicts an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, which long dominated public policy debate) decades prior to A. W. Phillips. In this light, modern macroeconomics can be seen as nothing but a thick layer of dust on the foundations laid by Fisher. Fisher also had severe financial setbacks during the Great Depression and had to be supported by family members at the end of his life.
Mises (1928) found that Fisher’s attempt to stabilize purchasing power was riddled with inherent technical difficulties and was incapable of achieving its goals. “In regard to the role of money as a standard of deferred payments, the verdict must be that, for long-term contracts, Fisher’s scheme is inadequate. For short-term commitments, it is both inadequate and superfluous.” He then demonstrated how Fisher-type monetary reforms do not cause stabilization and are actually the cause of booms and the inevitable busts that result in crisis and stagnation. He attributed the popularity of Fisher’s reforms and the resulting business cycle to political influence and bad ideology. Mises ends his analysis with a prescription for preventing future cycles. The only way to do away with, or even to alleviate, the periodic return of the trade cycle with its denouement, the crisis, is to reject the fallacy that prosperity can be produced by using banking procedures to make credit cheap. (Mises, 1928) As for me going forward the formula is older than current thought and also I am under the shadow of the thought of Aristotle, the golden mean is the desirable middle between two extremes, one of excess and the other of deficiency of thought. I am fading the current myopia as forwarded in the forum after the 27th of equity for the next cycle of the Feds hubris. When do I get my IMF dividend check for Greece? Old, I enjoy the rants.
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