Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

From Wikipedia:

In May 1571, the 120,000-strong Crimean and Turkish army (80,000 Tatar, 33,000 irregular Turks and 7,000 janissary) led by the khan of Crimea Devlet I Giray, and Big and Small Nogai hordes and troops of Circassians, bypassed the Serpukhov defensive fortifications on the river Oka, crossed the river Ugra and rounded the flank of the 6,000-man Russian army. The sentry troops of Russians were crushed by the Crimeans. Not having forces to stop the invasion, the Russian army receded to Moscow. The rural Russian population also fled to the capital.

The Crimean army devastated unprotected towns and villages around Moscow, and then set fire to suburbs of the capital. Due to a strong wind, the fire quickly expanded. The townspeople, chased by a fire and refugees, rushed to northern gate of capital. At the gate and in the narrow streets, there was a crush, people "went in three lines went on heads one of another, and top pressed those who were under them". The army, having mixed up with refugees, lost order, and general prince Belsky died in a fire.

Within three hours, Moscow burnt out completely. In one more day, the Crimean army, sated with its pillage, left on the Ryazan road to the steppes. The Ottomans placed into slavery 150,000 Russians. Contemporaries counted up to 100,000 victims of the invasion in 1571. Papal ambassador Possevin testified of the devastation: he counted in 1580 no more than 30,000 inhabitants of Moscow, although in 1520 the Moscow population was about 100,000.

Russo-Crimean Wars
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Crimean_Wars

I've studied these kinds of events pretty extensively and haven't mentioned this before, but the events in Europe around the years 1570-1572 are also of cyclical importance at this time and of similar nature to the anonymous, flash mobs and occupy movements.

[John]

Dear Higgie,

> Russo-Crimean Wars
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Crimean_Wars

> I've studied these kinds of events pretty extensively and haven't
> mentioned this before, but the events in Europe around the years
> 1570-1572 are also of cyclical importance at this time and of
> similar nature to the anonymous, flash mobs and occupy movements.

Thanks for pointing this war out - it fills a hole in my own lists.

An interesting side note is that the wikipedia article says that the
Tatars were "supported by Sweden." This refers to the Livonian War,
largely fought with Sweden.

But the point you make is absolutely right, and it shows how wrong
people are who think that today every war is a high-tech war fought on
TV screens.

We have large megacities in the world with population in the tens of
millions, and with people searching for food in garbage dumps because
the global price of food is way above previous historic highs, there
could be a similar conflagration at any time. There are already such
wars going on in a small scale in Africa, in Yemen, in Pakistan, in
parts of India and China.

Could it happen in the United States? It certainly will happen in the
southwest, when the new Mexican "revolution" spills over the border.
And it could happen elsewhere, where there are pockets of ethnic
populations living in poverty. And this will be combined with a
high-tech war -- remember that China has promised to nuke at least 50
of our cities with nuclear weaponized missiles.

What you've described, Higgie, is the world's future. Take care.

John

[richard5za]

What you've described, Higgie, is the world's future. Take care.

John

Dear John and Higgie,

I accept a reasonable possibility for this scenario. There is great uncertainty and this is possible; how probable we can debate. What is not clear to me is whether the financial path will be deflationery or very inflationery, because these represent two very different sets of circumstances, outcomes and hardships, and more important two very different sets of political outcomes.

A deflationery outcome will be economic suicide for the United States, will be a last resort, and will be so severe that I have no doubt will change the social order and result in an authoritarian / despotic governance of some sort. Its incredible to imagine that this change could result, but really severe economic hardship can make massive political changes. An inflationery outcome impoverishes most of America but not so severely as to change the democratic social order.

I really can't decide whether the final outcome will be inflationery or deflationery. Its very complex. John, as you correctly point out, the Euro crisis solution presented last week is unlikely to work for ant length of time. Its actually a bit silly and the European leaders should know better but perhaps are just kicking the can down the road praying for a miracle. But in the final outcome both deflationery and inflationery scenarios are possible in the Euro scenario.

Do you have any logic / financial / economic analysis supporting one direction e.g deflaionery versus the other e.g. inflationery?

Best regards,
Richard

[Higgenbotham]

We have large megacities in the world with population in the tens of
millions, and with people searching for food in garbage dumps because
the global price of food is way above previous historic highs, there
could be a similar conflagration at any time. There are already such
wars going on in a small scale in Africa, in Yemen, in Pakistan, in
parts of India and China.

Could it happen in the United States? It certainly will happen in the
southwest, when the new Mexican "revolution" spills over the border.
And it could happen elsewhere, where there are pockets of ethnic
populations living in poverty. And this will be combined with a
high-tech war -- remember that China has promised to nuke at least 50
of our cities with nuclear weaponized missiles.

What you've described, Higgie, is the world's future. Take care.

John

Yes, I agree with all this too. To borrow a phrase of yours, my updated view is that large scale worldwide devastation is coming with 100% certainty and it's coming sooner rather than later. It will be on the scale of the Fall of the Roman Empire, the 1340s collapse (both of which have been mentioned here), along with similarities to the 1570s, 1770s/1780s, and the collapse of the USSR.

[aedens]

Richard, When money fails you can follow the logic in its own course.
Read the order of operation in the oldest book we have and that 14 year cycle.
Like many have said to be non confrontational "Society is Judged by its Soil"
In the seventy's the 400 acre farms failed. We worked 6 month's and got layed
off 6 month's. Some of my friends worked the soil until the late seventies
and failed. Many reasons but I worked three jobs then to be Independant.
On the farm to subsist, contracted in between, and worked city until this cycle changed.
Now the 2 to 4 thousand acre farms are in trouble.
And noncompetive to the mega farms funded from Uncle Sam.
From there, as you also note the debate on inflation or deflation.
Well if your losing a thousand's of acre operation and doing fine
on a 10,000 plus spread consider the macro pricing issues since
as the forums do cover the consequences we truly have logged.
I work Corporate and we are Global. Size does not matter.
Politics and Reality rarely meet. We have many posts to the process
over some years now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=UpNE3gP7ETw

[Higgenbotham]

Richard, When money fails you can follow the logic in its own course.

Societies are held together by the knowledge that there are rules of operation that are mutually understood. Going back to the dissolution of Bretton Woods in 1971, some said that would be an imminent failure. Floating exchange resulted in currency risk but ways were found around that through the use of derivatives contracts, and there was confidence those would be adhered to. Now with the Euro, as Martin says, there aren't individual country currencies in the Eurozone, but shorting the bonds can suffice as a substitute. Or, in theory, someone can buy the bonds and if they are concerned about the risk credit default swaps are available. There's counterparty risk and that's a problem as has been noted but it's understood as part of how the system works. However, when for the sake of expediency it's decided that the CDS will or won't be paid out depending on how arbitrary and capricious language is crafted, the rules of operation have been violated. Though not money directly, what we are witnessing here are decisions that will lead to monetary failure as the free market mechanisms that evolved to meet the instability of floating exchange and the inherent deficiencies in the construction of the Eurozone monetary system are no longer operable. And I would trust that the bots have no idea what I just said.

[vincecate]

Richard, When money fails you can follow the logic in its own course.

However, when for the sake of expediency it's decided that the CDS will or won't be paid out depending on how arbitrary and capricious language is crafted, the rules of operation have been violated. Though not money directly, what we are witnessing here are decisions that will lead to monetary failure as the free market mechanisms that evolved to meet the instability of floating exchange and the inherent deficiencies in the construction of the Eurozone monetary system are no longer operable.

If the CDS do not pay out for Greek default, then faith in the CDS system will evaporate. When that goes, prices on sovereign bonds will crash. The crashing of bonds is often how hyperinflation starts. If people stop buying bonds and get cash as bonds come due then money that had been locked up for many years in bonds is free to bid up prices on goods. More money will be printed to pay off the bonds really. I don't think we have 2 years left before the Yen, Pound, Dollar, and Euro get inflation of more than 5% per month. I still think gold and silver are good places to be. Bonds are not.

[aedens]

'This revolution was a curse': Economic woes test Egypt
'People in the neighborhood are talking about going back to the streets for another revolution — a hunger revolution'
The value of paper.
http://mises.org/daily/2942
There are a set of men who go about making purchases upon credit, and buying estates they have not wherewithal to pay for; and having done this, their next step is to fill the newspapers with paragraphs of the scarcity of money and the necessity of a paper emission, then to have a legal tender under the pretense of supporting its credit, and when out, to depreciate it as fast as they can, get a deal of it for a little price, and cheat their creditors; and this is the concise history of paper money schemes.

https://www.facebook.com/Nov.Fifth
The money is targeted to go to local credit unions from Banks of scope.
The Kids are the future and they are talking.
I went credit union decades ago.

"We have also been assured, Sir, in the sacred writings, that 'except the LORD build the house, they labour in vain that build it.' (Psalm 127:1) I firmly believe this, and I also believe that, without His concurring aid, we shall succeed in this political building no better than the builders of Babel. . ."
--Benjamin Franklin
Gentiles are bound as are all so called theology's.
The seven laws
1.Prohibition of Idolatry
2.Prohibition of Murder
3.Prohibition of Theft
4.Prohibition of Sexual immorality
5.Prohibition of Blasphemy
6.Prohibition of eating flesh taken from an animal while it is still alive
7.Establishment of courts of law
Sceptics abound as always. Until then decline and confusion

[Higgenbotham]

If the CDS do not pay out for Greek default, then faith in the CDS system will evaporate. When that goes, prices on sovereign bonds will crash.

I think a lot of credit lines will be cut to begin with. Next, funds with large CDS exposure may be forced to liquidate assets.

[aedens]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/we-are-al ... orld-order

Hedge funds CDO tranches are the onion skin to be politically removed, ignored.
Keynasians run the show. Rentiers are targets in there universe.
Free markets are a myth. Economics are classified "shocks" we invest bubbles since we are
only admitted as tuition to there imagined contruct.
"Unlike before, where growth could be masked by incremental new debt in either the public or private sector"
We have beat to death in the forums the finite reality of nature. I have no issue on paying taxes for logical expenses.
I for one will never stop producing with our competant team members for good and services.
Government must listen and leave us alone with minimal regulations to produce.

The real recovery begins when sanity and logic are implemented or injected into monetary policy. The Paradox of Thrift, the Wealth Effect, and Rational Expectations should all end up on the ash heap of history. Removing ZIRP alone might be enough to actually begin a real recovery. Until then, however, they can change the seasonal adjustments all they want, but the story remains the same.
Jeff Snider of Atlantic Capital Management

Yes the shocks and bubbles. Tuition went up 8 percent I read basically for University's. That is the trillion dollar bubble going off IMO right now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5Ujn2Ux ... re=related George are more lifted out of Poverty?
Also, after thought effect note - we left the rate low so get to work, see ya on 2013 after the employee is hired.