Trevor wrote:Guess I belong to the wrong generation, then. I suppose you can invest in a Ponzi Scheme as long as you're one of the first ones in.
But it's never entirely a Ponzi scheme if you also think of the "short opportunities"! (Actually, to "play safe" in this market, I think I would not only heavily focus on ultra-short trading, but invoke derivatives on top of derivatives on derivatives if possible, assuming that those extra derivatives can be, again, snagged on the cheap! Wall Street might learn something here! ) —Best regards/Cheers yet again, Marc
It's based on the Bigger Idiot theory. Unfortunately, you eventually run out of idiots and the whole thing falls apart. Seems a bit too risky for me, even if I had money to invest, which I unfortunately don't.
Trevor wrote:It's based on the Bigger Idiot theory. Unfortunately, you eventually run out of idiots and the whole thing falls apart. Seems a bit too risky for me, even if I had money to invest, which I unfortunately don't.
It does form an interesting theoretical study in risk management, though; maybe it could even be made "idiot-proof" by having, as part of the derivative chain of protection, certain swap derivatives which will pay out in safe (at least for now) investments, such as US Treasuries or blue-chip stocks or bonds. Maybe some computer modeling can be done here in regards to both the "macro" and "micro" aspects of all this. —Best regards, Marc
Oh, nothing's idiot-proof, sad to say. Since I'm a bit strapped for cash and can't exactly invest in anything once the stock market tanks, I just have to figure out a way to survive the coming world war. any suggestions?
Trevor wrote:Oh, nothing's idiot-proof, sad to say. Since I'm a bit strapped for cash and can't exactly invest in anything once the stock market tanks, I just have to figure out a way to survive the coming world war. any suggestions?
I was admittedly negating the possibility of nuclear Armageddon and such in my prior comment; if that happens, I realize that there's no way for you or me to take it with us (or perhaps even preserve it for posterity). Let's both hope that that doesn't happen —Best regards, Marc
I think it is going to happen, though I'd be happy to be wrong about this. If it does, we'd better bury our cash to leave to any surviving family members. It's supposed to be worth more after the deflationary spiral, so it might not be a bad idea.
As an addendum, the best advice I can give in regards to surviving a total-war-type situation — one in which the homeland is dragged into it — is to engage in preparations that are at least on par for "more-typical" types of civil emergencies: stocking up on reasonable amounts of food, necessities, etc. A much higher level of preparation would likely entail well-stocked fallout shelters and such. The most dangerous exposure to such a crisis is if one is conscripted into the war to fight the enemy. Again, I wish that no one truly has to face that or any highly endangering type of situation in their lifetimes, and wish that I had a "swap derivative" which could guarantee this. —Best regards, Marc
All of that's probably a good idea, at least for my family. Hell, that's advisable just for a financial collapse, let alone a war. I'm figuring that when the war breaks out, I'm likely going to end up on the front lines once they reinstate the draft. I live in a small place, meaning that it's unlikely that a nuclear weapon will hit.
Trevor wrote:All of that's probably a good idea, at least for my family. Hell, that's advisable just for a financial collapse, let alone a war. I'm figuring that when the war breaks out, I'm likely going to end up on the front lines once they reinstate the draft. I live in a small place, meaning that it's unlikely that a nuclear weapon will hit.
I would think that being in a small-town or rural locale, provided that it's some ways away from any militarily-significant targets, is a plus if there were to be war on the homeland. As for a draft breaking out due to a total war, I admit that I don't really know what the manpower needs would be in such a war. Only if it were determined that the war was likely to be sustained and that we'd be fighting large-geographic, vast-population areas (such as China) by needing to heavily rely on ground forces, could I expect that it would quite possibly be a "most draft-eligible people in" scenario. Drone and military-robot technology could be another variable that would determine manpower needs in such a total-war scenario, too. —Best regards/Peace, Marc
However, I don't see that coming until a couple years after the financial collapse. Financially.... it's only a short matter of time, with the beginnings of default likely in early 2012 and by the end, I imagine we'll have numerous nations in default with others close behind.
As far as I know, my town is nowhere near any military bases, so I'm safe in that respect. Considering the scale that this is likely to be, I would expect something similar to WWII, where we mobilized slightly over 10 percent of our entire population, about 30 million right now and likely to be higher once it begins.
(Actually, to "play safe" in this market, I think I would not only heavily focus on ultra-short trading, but invoke derivatives on top of derivatives on derivatives if possible, assuming that those extra derivatives can be, again, snagged on the cheap! Wall Street might learn something here! 
—Best regards, Marc