Financial topics

[shoshin]

Steve Keen's Debtwatch blog has several graphs that seem to confirm John's view of "regression to the mean" on DJIA, house prices, etc. If you look at his "averages," it's clear that things are badly out-of-sync.

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

And I want to thank John for his keeping this website going, day after day, when he he does have a full-time job, which I hope he is not neglecting.

THANKS, JOHN, and HAPPY NEW YEAR (although that sounds really funny, saying it to John, I mean, "happy"?)

[Trevor]

Well, he was saying all this back in 2002 and it's taken nearly a decade for people to catch up. Back in the 1920's, there were people who predicted a stock market crash, but they were generally ignored. "It's been going up and up; why would that change?"

As for our unemployment numbers, it looks like it'll be 8.5, though I'd bet that some of that is again people giving up on looking for a job.

[Higgenbotham]

Long Wave Dynamics.

Investors should recognize that market cycles are dynamic fields of human action, including individual and corporate action, and of course they include the effects of coercive fiscal and monetary policy actions. The big difference with fiscal and monetary action is that it is not self-interested and personally accountable, but based on models and assumptions of what is believed to be the collective interest of society.

Human action not tied to personal accountability for consequences, including short and long-term consequences, tends to produce errors. They rarely achieve the desired results. When human action is tied directly to individual reward or punishment for outcomes, both short and long-term, the actions are more selective, precise and productive.

This dynamic field theory approach to human action and their connection to market cycles is directly related to the idea of fields as proposed in research published by the Institute of Noetic Sciences (IONS), that such fields organize cultures and societies. Biochemist Rupert Sheldrake, published by IONS, has termed these fields as morphic fields. Sheldrake proposes that the same sorts of fields that are at work in biology and ordering life are also molding the outcomes of human action and the organizational structure of society. Markets are certainly a key component of a society.

In summary, certainly natural forces that are external to both fiscal and monetary policy makers drive market cycles. However, the scale of intervention in recent years has dwarfed anything ever imagined prior to intervention begun in the 1990s. The market cycles cannot be circumvented by such polices, but they can certainly be influenced, manipulated and lengthened. Intervention does not reduce the risks in the system; it simply shifts it from one party to another, or moves it to a future date in time. Risk does not dissipate; it accumulates until a large enough cycle resets the system.

Some of the risks facing global markets have been shifted into future cycles and the end of the business cycle, and the long wave.

[Trevor]

Considering the bubble lasted for 12 years and is mostly still around, this means that the stock market until be underpriced for an even longer time than it was during the Great Depression.

[aedens]

"Some of the risks facing global markets have been shifted into future cycles and the end of the business cycle, and the long wave."

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2009/07/gold- ... arket.html

Keep in mind the axis point we discussed some time back Higg from the aug 15th event and the causations.
The issue of confusion "models" today is the narrow mental contruct others are embracing from design
to the other side of veil. All the problems today are responses to design to the gradualism of effect.

[Higgenbotham]

Keep in mind the axis point we discussed some time back Higg from the aug 15th event and the causations.

John has the false panic cycle and looking back 58 years from the August 15 date finds causation. Up used to be up and down used to be down according to the cycle. In the post false panic phase down became up and up became down. For the past few months or so disorder is clearly evident.

[John]

Dear Higgie,

> John has the 58 year false panic cycle and looking back 58 years
> from the August 15 date finds causation. Up used to be up and down
> used to be down according to John's cycle. In the post false panic
> phase down was up and up was down. For the past few months or so
> disorder is clearly evident.

Just to clarify, there's no "cycle" in the 58-year hypothesis. It
says that if some calamitous event occurs that shocks everyone (such
as a flu pandemic or a stock market crash), then the 5-10 year old
children are affected by it for their entire lives, and approximately
58 years later, when these children are 63-68 years old, there'll be a
"false panic" because they fear the calamity will be repeated.
However, there's no e cho panic for this 58 years after that, so
there's no cycle.

John

P.S.: I keep running into this super-bizarre bug in Phpbb. I had to
put a space in the word "e cho" because without the space, Phpbb won't
post this message. I have no idea what's going on with this.

[thomasglee]

P.S.: I keep running into this super-bizarre bug in Phpbb. I had to
put a space in the word "e cho" because without the space, Phpbb won't
post this message. I have no idea what's going on with this.

Over the last few days I've been encountering problems on many sites I visit regularly. I think there denial of service attacks taking aplace across the net.

[Trevor]

Kind of like Israeli when they went to war with Lebanon. I think the whole region really dodged a bullet that time around. Course, what about the next time?

[aedens]

August 15 is when Richard closed the gold window. It pretty much sums up our discussion to the axis
point we discussed.