Financial topics

[ohmeohmy]

AAII reports bearish investor sentiment near record lows.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bearish-i ... ecord-lows

[Higgenbotham]

For now on the bots are on there own.

I coded the previous post to confuse the bots.

I agree with John that the term "ecco" is appropriate, not cycle. That was not a deliberate code word, but an error.

There are many "eccos". There is a 16 year ecco from Richard and going back to the event that eccoed to Richard there is a 16 year ecco from that, if you know what I mean.

[Higgenbotham]

AAII reports bearish investor sentiment near record lows.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bearish-i ... ecord-lows

Sentiment numbers can sometimes stay low for a long time but overall I am getting that April 1930 feeling. Like everyone is thinking the worst is over, only to be disappointed. The pessimists at this point seem to be worn out from being too pessimistic, while the optimists seem vindicated. Being a pessimist myself, saying the same thing over and over and being wrong does get old (as in the market is going to make a new low in November or the market is going to crash in November - both of which I did say). Once saying that gets old and I feel really stupid, that's when I might finally be right. That seems to be the pattern. Though it's also interesting to note that even though the stock market has made very little progress in over 2 months, somehow that has made people more optimistic.

[aedens]

AAII reports bearish investor sentiment near record lows.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bearish-i ... ecord-lows

Sentiment numbers can sometimes stay low for a long time but overall I am getting that April 1930 feeling. Like everyone is thinking the worst is over, only to be disappointed. The pessimists at this point seem to be worn out from being too pessimistic, while the optimists seem vindicated. Being a pessimist myself, saying the same thing over and over and being wrong does get old (as in the market is going to make a new low in November or the market is going to crash in November - both of which I did say). Once saying that gets old and I feel really stupid, that's when I might finally be right. That seems to be the pattern. Though it's also interesting to note that even though the stock market has made very little progress in over 2 months, somehow that has made people more optimistic.

For the first time since the financial crisis, positions in over-the-counter (OTC)
derivatives went up significantly in the first half of 2011. Notional amounts
outstanding of contracts in all risk categories rose by 18% to $708 trillion at the
end of June, well above the $673 trillion peak in mid-2008

[aedens]

To reduce to the past "rentier eliminations"

bond_crash.png (66.89 KiB) Viewed 4269 times

The margin levels we observed from then to now as in moral hazzard aceptances of the rentiers we burden
as taxpayers we do indeed convey as avarice. To be brief, there is a backbone on the social calculation
Mises conveyed as bottum up calculations to currency abandonement from moral implications.

The second program trading strategy was “index arbitrage,” which was designed to produce
profits by exploiting discrepancies between the value of stocks in an index and the value of the stock-
index futures contracts.

[Trevor]

AAII reports bearish investor sentiment near record lows.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bearish-i ... ecord-lows

Sentiment numbers can sometimes stay low for a long time but overall I am getting that April 1930 feeling. Like everyone is thinking the worst is over, only to be disappointed. The pessimists at this point seem to be worn out from being too pessimistic, while the optimists seem vindicated. Being a pessimist myself, saying the same thing over and over and being wrong does get old (as in the market is going to make a new low in November or the market is going to crash in November - both of which I did say). Once saying that gets old and I feel really stupid, that's when I might finally be right. That seems to be the pattern. Though it's also interesting to note that even though the stock market has made very little progress in over 2 months, somehow that has made people more optimistic.

Oh, I've been hearing "the worst is over" for 3 years now. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.5 percent and many people are celebrating. I happen to be a rather pessimistic person, meaning that I don't expect this to continue much longer. One European country after another is collapsing. The United States is staying stagnant... for now.

[aedens]

AAII reports bearish investor sentiment near record lows.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bearish-i ... ecord-lows

Sentiment numbers can sometimes stay low for a long time but overall I am getting that April 1930 feeling. Like everyone is thinking the worst is over, only to be disappointed. The pessimists at this point seem to be worn out from being too pessimistic, while the optimists seem vindicated. Being a pessimist myself, saying the same thing over and over and being wrong does get old (as in the market is going to make a new low in November or the market is going to crash in November - both of which I did say). Once saying that gets old and I feel really stupid, that's when I might finally be right. That seems to be the pattern. Though it's also interesting to note that even though the stock market has made very little progress in over 2 months, somehow that has made people more optimistic.

Oh, I've been hearing "the worst is over" for 3 years now. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.5 percent and many people are celebrating. I happen to be a rather pessimistic person, meaning that I don't expect this to continue much longer. One European country after another is collapsing. The United States is staying stagnant... for now.

Collapse? Not this quarter. http://fofoa.blogspot.com/search?update ... -results=1
http://www.hulu.com/watch/109815/cosmic ... -deep-time

[aedens]

Sums it up properly.
Which we merely bring up to those who, counterfactualy, desire to brand this site as some fringe lunatic goldbug asylum. Which we are not saying it isn't: we urge most people to stay out of stocks entirely: the possibility of another flash crash is always present. For those for whom capital preservation is of paramount importance, precious metals are the way to go. But we realize there are those for whom career risk means being involved in stocks, and we realize that they represent a substantial portion of our readership. Which is why we try to be of use to everyone who comes.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/complete- ... -ahead-qe3
Debasement of paper currencies will continue.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOwZwkhF ... re=related

Patterns: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKlKGB3Y ... re=related
Live free

[Trevor]

I just read an article that stated that factory orders in Germany have fallen to the lowest level in three years. This means that even the so-called powerhouse of Europe is not in a real good position.

[Marc]

I've seen some reputable sources state that the aggregate notional values of all financial derivatives out there as being over US$1 quadrillion. (I mean, a quadrillion here, a quadrillion there, and like pretty soon, dude, you're talkin' big money.... ) At any rate, it's a hell of a lot.... And yes, Aedens, that amount has not shrunk, but has gotten appreciably bigger in the past few years. I can understand this in regards to financial entities trying to protect themselves more, as well as their seeing opportunities to sell even more derivatives and their devising super-creative ones to get around any recent little pissant financial laws that have been recently passed.

And, that is actually why I don't foresee a Greek default in 2012, although I could be wrong about that. I feel that the powers-that-be who are capable of doing anything about this (especially the ECB and the Fed) will try like crazy to find some way to avoid a Greek default, even if carrying out such a default is proposed to be done in a way that purportedly does not trigger a "credit event." Additionally, with the United States' military commitments in several global hotspots and its recent long tenures in Iraq and Afghanistan, I feel that the United States (and Europe) would rather have the Fed do super-creative backdoor deals to save Greece and other PIIGS countries as opposed to America having another potential additional military worry in Greece (or elsewhere in Europe) on its hands. Again, others may see things differently here. —Best regards, Marc