The US is in better shape than most developed nations as far as population goes, though much of that population is imported. A major item is the development of the household robot, though in it's infancy, the robots that clean floors, pools and gutters are nibbling away at the edges of the service industry. My wife loves her vacuuming robot, the cat hates it, but he doesn't get a veto.
Such devices replace people. If you only need your pool serviced once a month (or can now do it yourself) if you need the rugs shampooed half as often, if you don't need (or can't afford) the "Irish" girl so many of the old novels speak of, then she and her compatriots aren't necessary and they will not be present. They either are not born or they go elsewhere.
China's population has an enormous crash coming, the one child policy has guaranteed that. Both India and China will be "interesting" by 2050, if the projected populations hold up. I'd wager on the age groups from 30 on down being smaller than those projections though.
http://www.nationmaster.com/country/ch/Age_distribution
http://www.nationmaster.com/country/in/Age_distribution
This is going to be interesting. If we are to continue to have growing populations, then we need more living space. Unless we build O'Neill colonies or settle on the sea floor, (or pull a rabbit out of the hat) that space is nowhere to be found.
Several questions do come to mind. Firstly, should we count robots as workers? If we do, then we've got a great many low wage workers that work very long shifts that aren't being counted. When autonomous AI is developed, do we count those? What effect will the singularity have on all this, given that most of us here will likely live to see it?
And perhaps most pressing of all is this, can the capitalist system survive? Capitalism has a built in assumption of continued growth, and since populations in the developed world started growing slowly, capitalism has been on life support. Best way to make money for the last 40 years, guess which way the governments will go towards support of whatever your investment is. That wasn't the case prior to the population downtrend.
We do live in interesting times.
Something else to ponder is the role of women in society. Should they take care of children as their primary task? Keep in mind, you just got a lot more stay at home parents than you had five years ago, and a lot of folks seem to not like the consequences. Careful of what you ask for, you might get it!
Financial topics
Re: Financial topics
My feeling is that a lot of these choices are dependent on theOLD1953 wrote: > The US is in better shape than most developed nations as far as
> population goes, though much of that population is imported. A
> major item is the development of the household robot, though in
> it's infancy, the robots that clean floors, pools and gutters are
> nibbling away at the edges of the service industry. My wife loves
> her vacuuming robot, the cat hates it, but he doesn't get a veto.
> Such devices replace people. If you only need your pool serviced
> once a month (or can now do it yourself) if you need the rugs
> shampooed half as often, if you don't need (or can't afford) the
> "Irish" girl so many of the old novels speak of, then she and her
> compatriots aren't necessary and they will not be present. They
> either are not born or they go elsewhere.
economy. If your wife could obtain the services of an "Irish" girl
for a dollar a day to do all the household chores (not just
vacuuming), would she be tempted?
I've made a similar argument about the Great Band Era. Big bands made
sense when you could get a musician for a dollar a week. After WW II,
musicians became a lot more expensive, so bands became smaller.
In the coming financial crisis, I would expect these very low wage
jobs to return, as people are willing to do pretty much anything
to get money.
John
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Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics
Robots don't pay taxes so that the excess human populations on government assistance can continue to be supported.OLD1953 wrote:Several questions do come to mind. Firstly, should we count robots as workers? If we do, then we've got a great many low wage workers that work very long shifts that aren't being counted. When autonomous AI is developed, do we count those? What effect will the singularity have on all this, given that most of us here will likely live to see it?
There are two ways I see that this can go.
One would be that robots proliferate, replacing humans and further reducing the human population. That may seem like a ridiculous statement on its face as there's a long chain of events that leads to that outcome (no jobs for the low IQ population and so on).
Two would be that the humans who instinctively know they are going to be replaced "tear the world apart". That's similar logic to what "Spengler" proposes in how the Muslim populations will interface with the West in the future. Or as someone else said, when you have nothing left to lose, you lose it.
My vote is for the second, as it is already starting to happen.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Re: Financial topics
The industrial revolution made life easier for the masses. The "Irish girl" cleaning a home worked for a pittance, and her family all had to work for similar small amounts in order to have enough food and firewood to survive. Post depression era brought transfer payments, welfare, minimum wage, and a long list of governmental regulations (which continue to grow to shape (control)) society. Because of the increased mechanization, fewer and fewer low skill, low pay jobs are available, and at the same time, technology and the information age (fantasy land TV and radio) has allowed the masses to believe that they are entitled to an easier life without working. Therefore, everyone aspires to have an "easy" lifestyle.
However, an easy lifestyle promotes consumerism, which is promoted by corporate profits, so management can make huge bonuses. The transfer payments and governmental borrowing of fiat dollars buying votes from people who don't work, don't want to work, and don't know how to work (which really means creation of wealth and productivity) leads to dumbing down the masses. For Votes. Which means power, and money to a few. This cycle, which is most evident in cities such as Detroit, has lead to social decay and infrastructure decay.
The world cannot be a utopian society. We all can't have it all. The US economy and its growth has been based on cheap energy for the industrial revolution. The US economy underwent growing pains of lack of cheap energy beginning with the oil price shock in the 70's, and is continuing to struggle with increased energy costs. China, with its huge population, is experiencing lifestyle growth and hunger for energy in order that the industrial revolution will bring that sought after easier lifestyle to is population, so the people will be more content, so that the powers that be can remain in power. As China buys up more oil and naturual resources with our fiat dollars, the US standard of living has no choice but to fall because of increased energy costs. Andt urban youth will become increasingly angry with their loss of easy lifesyle. Unfortunately we are only at the beginning stages of a generational crisis, because of transfer payments. The powers that be only want power, for either money or control or both, and are willing to make the crisis worse if they can only have one more year, month, week, day, in power. Thats why they keep kicking the can; unfortunately each kick has less force; the can doesn't (can't) go as far.
OK, with this rant comes the bottom line: Yes, the PTB will keep kicking the can; people aren't upset at themselves enough yet to demand change; BUT the markets will roll over long before the PEOPLE demand change. There are too many crisis' in the world simultaneously for the powers to keep it all under control. My prediction - a natural disaster precipitates a change in the world as we know it, bringing famine and/or war, which is inevitable.
However, an easy lifestyle promotes consumerism, which is promoted by corporate profits, so management can make huge bonuses. The transfer payments and governmental borrowing of fiat dollars buying votes from people who don't work, don't want to work, and don't know how to work (which really means creation of wealth and productivity) leads to dumbing down the masses. For Votes. Which means power, and money to a few. This cycle, which is most evident in cities such as Detroit, has lead to social decay and infrastructure decay.
The world cannot be a utopian society. We all can't have it all. The US economy and its growth has been based on cheap energy for the industrial revolution. The US economy underwent growing pains of lack of cheap energy beginning with the oil price shock in the 70's, and is continuing to struggle with increased energy costs. China, with its huge population, is experiencing lifestyle growth and hunger for energy in order that the industrial revolution will bring that sought after easier lifestyle to is population, so the people will be more content, so that the powers that be can remain in power. As China buys up more oil and naturual resources with our fiat dollars, the US standard of living has no choice but to fall because of increased energy costs. Andt urban youth will become increasingly angry with their loss of easy lifesyle. Unfortunately we are only at the beginning stages of a generational crisis, because of transfer payments. The powers that be only want power, for either money or control or both, and are willing to make the crisis worse if they can only have one more year, month, week, day, in power. Thats why they keep kicking the can; unfortunately each kick has less force; the can doesn't (can't) go as far.
OK, with this rant comes the bottom line: Yes, the PTB will keep kicking the can; people aren't upset at themselves enough yet to demand change; BUT the markets will roll over long before the PEOPLE demand change. There are too many crisis' in the world simultaneously for the powers to keep it all under control. My prediction - a natural disaster precipitates a change in the world as we know it, bringing famine and/or war, which is inevitable.
Re: Financial topics
In terms of economics, what I'm truly concerned about is Italy. A Greek default will harm their already weak economy. Their bonds are barely above junk and honestly, they likely will be junk by the end of the year. They're also too big to be bailed out the way the others were.
By themselves, I believe the smaller countries will not be sufficient to collapse the world economy. However, they put more strain on the larger ones who are already having major problems of their own. Italy and Spain, on the other hand, will have the capability to do just that.
Let's not forget the China factor as well. Yes, their GDP grew by 9 percent in 2011, but that's the slowest in nearly 20 years. I expect their growth to continue slowing, even if they don't have an official recession, meaning that their country will destabilize yet further.
By themselves, I believe the smaller countries will not be sufficient to collapse the world economy. However, they put more strain on the larger ones who are already having major problems of their own. Italy and Spain, on the other hand, will have the capability to do just that.
Let's not forget the China factor as well. Yes, their GDP grew by 9 percent in 2011, but that's the slowest in nearly 20 years. I expect their growth to continue slowing, even if they don't have an official recession, meaning that their country will destabilize yet further.
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Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7997
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
Trevor wrote:Let's not forget the China factor as well. Yes, their GDP grew by 9 percent in 2011, but that's the slowest in nearly 20 years. I expect their growth to continue slowing, even if they don't have an official recession, meaning that their country will destabilize yet further.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-0 ... -says.htmlChina’s economy may be headed for a “rough landing,” Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said.
“They’ve built a lot of infrastructure. They have built a lot of capacity in many industries, autos, some of the electronics industries,” Lee said, according to a transcript of an interview airing today on CNN’s“ Fareed Zakaria GPS” program. “There may be a rough landing, but they will get through it.”
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Re: Financial topics
sounds similar to what people were saying here a few years ago: "There's not a housing bubble, people have to have a place to live" "the economy is strong; nothing can happen". "The stock market has reached a new high; it can't possibly go down".
Re: Financial topics
There were some interesting tradeoffs in the hiring of the Irish girl back in the 30's. In quite a few cases that I've read of from old biographies and so forth (and a bit of personal discussion when I was much younger) the Irish girl either lived with the employer or it was assumed she'd take food home since she was doing the cooking. This was not counted as part of "income", but could be a fairly important boost to the family lifestyle, as they'd either eat better food or would simply be saving money on food. I know of similar arrangements down to the present day (yes, current as of now) whereby someone with no property is taking care of a large garden for someone older or who has a job that keeps them from doing this work, and the payment is in whatever vegetables they want to take home, can, preserve or whatever. IOW, they get fertilizer and sometimes seeds and the produce in return for labor. This is untaxable barter income, and it's not that uncommon even today in rural areas. I'm uncertain if this is counted as black market income, but it's certainly present.
There are people who will cut up and remove fallen trees in return for the wood. They sell the wood, and make money at it - more than you'd think in a lot of instances.
My point here is that cash cost/payments are not the only return in many local or domestic arrangements. Does a farmer growing a field of potatoes for a church pantry concern himself with profit and loss statements? Yet someone sees those potatoes as "income" in the strictest sense. There is a lot of "miracle" income in the real world, even corporations get their share of it as goodwill.
My wife would undoubtedly hire that girl at a dollar a day even though the real costs would certainly be higher, though they would be difficult to measure.
What I said about the robots was meant to point up that the old figures and the new figures don't directly compare very well. If I replace a welder with three robots then should I be comparing a group of robot arms with a highly trained mechanic/software engineer tending them as one person working or would the more accurate comparison with the past be an overseer and five welders? We often compare charts and graphs here with the past, but our present is starting to diverge wildly from the past of even 50 years ago, and comparisons pre steam power aren't very meaningful. I don't have any easy answers for these issues, I'm just pointing out that a great many of our assumptions are built on shifting sand.
I do think the trade war will come, in a real sense it's already here given the Chinese peg to the dollar. China is using the US much as Germany used Greece, and just as the Greeks have come to resent this lock to Germany, so the US is coming to resent the lock to China. If the Chinese were to float their money, the trade issues would be adjusted very quickly. And the Chinese would have the depression they've managed to put off for so long. Their return to the mean for growth is not going to be pretty.
Looking at some of the news items today, I saw a clip of a radical Muslim in Belgium who was smugly assuring the interviewer that everyone who disagreed with him was certainly going to hell. I'm extremely tolerant on religious matters, and I seriously wanted to smack him one. It's not his religion, I don't care what religion someone is, it's his smug attitude. And that's a major issue with people turning away from religion, the smug intolerant attitudes displayed by the public religious figures is frankly repellent to the average person. I can't tell if this is a Boomer "I'll never give up the moral high ground" attitude or a Gen X "I'm right and you are wrong and I don't care if you tear the place down" attitude, but it's absolutely repugnant and it's so ubiquitous that it took this jerk mouthing off this morning to make me realize how common that attitude has become.
There are people who will cut up and remove fallen trees in return for the wood. They sell the wood, and make money at it - more than you'd think in a lot of instances.
My point here is that cash cost/payments are not the only return in many local or domestic arrangements. Does a farmer growing a field of potatoes for a church pantry concern himself with profit and loss statements? Yet someone sees those potatoes as "income" in the strictest sense. There is a lot of "miracle" income in the real world, even corporations get their share of it as goodwill.
My wife would undoubtedly hire that girl at a dollar a day even though the real costs would certainly be higher, though they would be difficult to measure.
What I said about the robots was meant to point up that the old figures and the new figures don't directly compare very well. If I replace a welder with three robots then should I be comparing a group of robot arms with a highly trained mechanic/software engineer tending them as one person working or would the more accurate comparison with the past be an overseer and five welders? We often compare charts and graphs here with the past, but our present is starting to diverge wildly from the past of even 50 years ago, and comparisons pre steam power aren't very meaningful. I don't have any easy answers for these issues, I'm just pointing out that a great many of our assumptions are built on shifting sand.
I do think the trade war will come, in a real sense it's already here given the Chinese peg to the dollar. China is using the US much as Germany used Greece, and just as the Greeks have come to resent this lock to Germany, so the US is coming to resent the lock to China. If the Chinese were to float their money, the trade issues would be adjusted very quickly. And the Chinese would have the depression they've managed to put off for so long. Their return to the mean for growth is not going to be pretty.
Looking at some of the news items today, I saw a clip of a radical Muslim in Belgium who was smugly assuring the interviewer that everyone who disagreed with him was certainly going to hell. I'm extremely tolerant on religious matters, and I seriously wanted to smack him one. It's not his religion, I don't care what religion someone is, it's his smug attitude. And that's a major issue with people turning away from religion, the smug intolerant attitudes displayed by the public religious figures is frankly repellent to the average person. I can't tell if this is a Boomer "I'll never give up the moral high ground" attitude or a Gen X "I'm right and you are wrong and I don't care if you tear the place down" attitude, but it's absolutely repugnant and it's so ubiquitous that it took this jerk mouthing off this morning to make me realize how common that attitude has become.
Re: Financial topics
We have conveyed countless times that if you do not know a stock or investment vehicle better than your wife you have no business
doing it. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bernanke- ... ustainable
Do your own work.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFAVtT9a ... plpp_video
Some times there is a point and trends appear. Did deeper and think for yourself from others
in the same leaky boat as we all are in.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/jp-morgan ... -weeks-ago
I agree with Johns deflation thesis some time back to a point when and until this effect hits equalization.
This extreme view linked below covers the end of repressionary taxes imposed on savers who defer
items today. If you even think it was about you and your family I suggest you look around more.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... Jg99tGolNI
From another.
Attention span of HFT machines: 0.0000000002 seconds.
Attention span of most Americans: 0.2 seconds.
Attention span of hedge fund managers 2 days.
Attention span of asset managers and CEOs: until the next quarter.
Attention span of politicians: until the next election.
Average 'news cycle': 3 months (max).
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/kate-w ... -structure
Holding stock: Less than 24 hours, as a taxpayer and investor you are going to be extinct if you have not noticed.
I have not seen a baseline scenario overall. We all track segments of course and the canary's
Revision 21:35: LBO puking blood from over marked up debt assets, They revalue the assets they own then borrows money against the re-valuations to fund the payments to investors, a strategy that could founder when, inevitably, the period of cheap credit and asset price inflation comes to an end.
These models are ending and have been for a some time, regulatory agency's may be paying attention and pulling some fuses.
The crack up Boom may be surfacing H but attach doubt for sure.
The eat or die vertical models predators are being phased out as passing the Bag to taxpayers.
I will follow up later on the segment move of CAT - GE
Value added chain compliance models may be afoot and are moving.
doing it. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bernanke- ... ustainable
Do your own work.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFAVtT9a ... plpp_video
Some times there is a point and trends appear. Did deeper and think for yourself from others
in the same leaky boat as we all are in.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/jp-morgan ... -weeks-ago
I agree with Johns deflation thesis some time back to a point when and until this effect hits equalization.
This extreme view linked below covers the end of repressionary taxes imposed on savers who defer
items today. If you even think it was about you and your family I suggest you look around more.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... Jg99tGolNI
From another.
Attention span of HFT machines: 0.0000000002 seconds.
Attention span of most Americans: 0.2 seconds.
Attention span of hedge fund managers 2 days.
Attention span of asset managers and CEOs: until the next quarter.
Attention span of politicians: until the next election.
Average 'news cycle': 3 months (max).
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/kate-w ... -structure
Holding stock: Less than 24 hours, as a taxpayer and investor you are going to be extinct if you have not noticed.
I have not seen a baseline scenario overall. We all track segments of course and the canary's
Revision 21:35: LBO puking blood from over marked up debt assets, They revalue the assets they own then borrows money against the re-valuations to fund the payments to investors, a strategy that could founder when, inevitably, the period of cheap credit and asset price inflation comes to an end.
These models are ending and have been for a some time, regulatory agency's may be paying attention and pulling some fuses.
The crack up Boom may be surfacing H but attach doubt for sure.
The eat or die vertical models predators are being phased out as passing the Bag to taxpayers.
I will follow up later on the segment move of CAT - GE
Value added chain compliance models may be afoot and are moving.
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Last edited by aedens on Mon Feb 06, 2012 11:57 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics
Recommendation: Go back <--------- to a few days before and a few days after after the August 9, 2011 and the October 4, 2011 lows in the stock market and read the posts in this thread to get a flavor for forum sentiment at a low compared to what it is now. That with the S&P at about 1100 versus about 1350 now.
I'm going to try to find a few interesting quotes and repost them.
October 4, 2011, the day of the 2011 low:
"But more people lose more money in general equities than is lost in gold. For instance the Dow peaked at 14142 (approx) in 2007 and in my estimation will bottom at below 5000 (if not much lower) There will be hardship as a result - just think of the pension investments in general equities that are too big to sell out and will go the whole way down. The stock market sell off in general equities will be world wide with global hardship."
October 5, 2011:
"If my stock market cycles are correct, the stock market topped in 2007 and the high will not be exceeded for decades and probably centuries. Also, my stock market cycles have already been proven partly incorrect because, according to my methods, the latest time frame for a secondary high was April 26, 2010 and the Fed was successful in exceeding that high with QE2 whereas I said it would not be possible."
"Looking at the Fed's influence on the stock market from the standpoint of mean reversion indicates that the successful attempt to elevate prices above the April 2010 high will result in a deeper crash than would have occurred in the absence of QE2."
October 7, 2011:
"I doubt the market can sustain this pattern, which would imply a 2 month rally to the 50 week moving average (red line) which stands at about 1275."
October 8, 2011:
"This rally may have already stumbled, over fear of financial regulation that means something."
"Will the markets price in the possibility of someone taking down the east coast power grid for 48 hours? Or the power plants simply shutting down?"
October 9, 2011:
"There is a coming collapse of credit, but the contracts will still stand. Cash notes are going to be king for a period of time."
"A worldwide bankruptcy proceeding is in the offing."
My opinion: Most of these quotes are as true as the day they were written.
I'm going to try to find a few interesting quotes and repost them.
October 4, 2011, the day of the 2011 low:
"But more people lose more money in general equities than is lost in gold. For instance the Dow peaked at 14142 (approx) in 2007 and in my estimation will bottom at below 5000 (if not much lower) There will be hardship as a result - just think of the pension investments in general equities that are too big to sell out and will go the whole way down. The stock market sell off in general equities will be world wide with global hardship."
October 5, 2011:
"If my stock market cycles are correct, the stock market topped in 2007 and the high will not be exceeded for decades and probably centuries. Also, my stock market cycles have already been proven partly incorrect because, according to my methods, the latest time frame for a secondary high was April 26, 2010 and the Fed was successful in exceeding that high with QE2 whereas I said it would not be possible."
"Looking at the Fed's influence on the stock market from the standpoint of mean reversion indicates that the successful attempt to elevate prices above the April 2010 high will result in a deeper crash than would have occurred in the absence of QE2."
October 7, 2011:
"I doubt the market can sustain this pattern, which would imply a 2 month rally to the 50 week moving average (red line) which stands at about 1275."
October 8, 2011:
"This rally may have already stumbled, over fear of financial regulation that means something."
"Will the markets price in the possibility of someone taking down the east coast power grid for 48 hours? Or the power plants simply shutting down?"
October 9, 2011:
"There is a coming collapse of credit, but the contracts will still stand. Cash notes are going to be king for a period of time."
"A worldwide bankruptcy proceeding is in the offing."
My opinion: Most of these quotes are as true as the day they were written.
Last edited by Higgenbotham on Mon Feb 06, 2012 11:25 pm, edited 5 times in total.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
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