Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Reality Check
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Reality Check »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Reality Check wrote:I would respectfully submit that what you are describing is "Moral Hazard"; One of the later phases of Moral Hazard.
Moral Hazard as I've seen it defined means "too big to fail" financial institutions can run their businesses with too much risk and still be OK if it doesn't work out because they will be bailed out.
There are many reasons to not have banks as big as they are now. In an indirect way, avoiding a Moral Hazard may be one of them.

But while there are specific actions you can take to avoid Moral Hazard, the size of the Bank is not the moral hazard.

Take a small private bank.

A private bank is created when investors, usually a small group of very wealthy investors, put up their own money, or capital, and then start performing banking operations.

They borrow money from some people and loan it to others.

The amounts borrowed and the amount loaned should be equal and they make money on the difference in interest rates between what they earn on their loans and what they pay their creditors. Over simplified, but accurate enough for these purpose.

The capitalization of the bank is the amount of the investors own money on deposit with the bank, minus any losses that have not yet been realized, all divided by the total amount of loans they have outstanding. This is normally expressed as a percentage such as three percent, or ten percent or fifteen percent.

In the event the bank loses money, the owners lose all their money first and then the people they borrowed from start losing money.

Historically bankers who lose other peoples money are no longer bankers and often pay other penalties, like execution, with or without torture first.

A Moral Hazard is the risk of creating Moral Monsters and leaving them in charge of of other peoples money.

Not only are they encouraged to do it again, but all the other bankers, who have not done it yet, are encouraged to do it as well.

One could think of a worse way to create a moral hazard. That would be to reward those who lost money by giving them replacement money ( re-capitalization with other peoples money ) and giving them exclusive franchises to make more money without taking any risk, and to guarantee them against all future loses, and to pay them huge bonuses as well. The U.S. Federal Government, and the Federal Reserve, were allowing all these things to happen as part of the "fix" to the financial crisis, and all the while some people were yelling "think of the Moral Hazard" of your actions

The "Moral Hazard" of those actions was the risk of creating "Moral Monsters" ( H's bandits ) and then leaving them in charge of Billions or even Trillions of other peoples money.

One often hears excuses like the "bank was too big to fail" so we were unable to fix the problem, or we cannot remove the bank employees responsible because they have not been convicted of breaking any law.

The following two facts prove such excuses false:

1. What just happened at Barclay's.

2. The following testimony to Congress.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8CqaHTy ... creen&NR=1

In both cases there was a "blood bath" and people not even convicted of any crime, most, if not all, have probably not even been formally charged with any crime, yet they were purged from the banks overnight. In the case of Barclay's those purged included the Chairman of the Board, the CEO, the COO, and multiple other officers of the bank. And these purged individuals did far less than those responsible for the 2007-2009 financial meltdown.
Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Reality Check wrote:One often hears excuses like the "bank was too big to fail" so we were unable to fix the problem, or we cannot remove the bank employees responsible because they have not been convicted of breaking any law.

The following two facts prove such excuses false:

1. What just happened at Barclay's.

2. The following testimony to Congress.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8CqaHTy ... creen&NR=1

In both cases there was a "blood bath" and people not even convicted of any crime, most, if not all, have probably not even been formally charged with any crime, yet they were purged from the banks overnight. In the case of Barclay's those purged included the Chairman of the Board, the CEO, the COO, and multiple other officers of the bank. And these purged individuals did far less than those responsible for the 2007-2009 financial meltdown.
It's timely that we have reviewed the William Black video here just recently, and I had noted the following and posted it July 1.

"a, also my thanks for posting the link to that William Black testimony. At 6:06, he states that Central Banks for centuries have routinely demanded that boards of directors remove incompetent bank CEOs, until now. I didn't know that, but it's one more piece of evidence indicating we have a brewing crisis of multi-century scope rather than 80 year scope."

We now have one very good indication that things are falling into line with the regular generational cycle, and this will be better proven if US regulators remove the CEOs of the large US banks who were also involved in this scheme. According to the DOJ press release, it may be possible but it should also be noted that the DOJ stated they will not be filing criminal charges against any Barclays employees due to the fact that they were cooperative. We should watch for that to be reversed and for these criminals to be charged and sent to prison. If that doesn't happen I'm still somewhat skeptical that the wherewithal is out there to turn things around. I believe indications are that the British are taking that on and it seems like John posted that on the main site.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

I had previously written about what I called the 14 month offset in the stock market. The reason for looking at 14 months is the stock market reached a multi year low on March 6, 2009. Exactly 14 months after this low, on May 6, 2010, the Flash Crash occurred. Since then, some significant turning points in the stock market have occurred 14 months apart, which I had previously noted.

14 months ago, Osama Bin Laden was killed. The stock market reacted with temporary euphoria as the futures opened on Sunday, May 1, 2011. The regular cash market remained euphoric the next morning and the S&P 500 hit its 2011 high the morning of May 2, 2011 at 1370.58. This high occurred on a new moon.

14 months later, as the LIBOR scandal broke, the S&P 500 once again approached the 1370 level and briefly exceeded it, closing above the May 2, 2011 high 14 months and 1 day later on July 3, 2012. After the holiday, the index backed off below this level and closed the week decidedly below it when the third poor employment report in a row indicated only 80,000 new jobs. The brief move over 1370 was accompanied by rabid anticipation that the ECB would not only lower its benchmark interest rate, but also initiate another round of LTRO. This high occurred on a full moon.

It should be noted that the S&P 500 reached higher levels than 1370 during March, April and May of 2012.

The October 11, 2007 all time stock market high was on a new moon with the recovery high of May 19, 2008 occurring about 7 months later and the day before a full moon, after which the market headed down and crashed 4 months later. Though few are aware of this, this is actually a very common pattern in markets. The 1929 and 1987 crashes both proceeded approximately this way, with absolute highs on or within 1 day of a new moon and secondary recovery highs a few days before the full moon.

But still, I wouldn't think this is particularly noteworthy and worth posting here except for how it also fits in with the Barclay's fiasco, which John has also in my view correctly labelled as a panic. I actually think it could be a precursor to a full blown panic and while the market may mark an important high here in line with the removal of Bob Diamond and an obvious shift in public sentiment, the very expansive nature of this manipulated and drawn out stock market top may indicate any crash will be several months off. Or it could occur in multiple stages, as the topping process also did.

A couple other notes I would make that are in line with generational time frames. 80 years ago tomorrow (approximately one saeculum ago), on July 8, 1932, the Dow Jones Industrials reached their Depression low. Nearly 75 years ago, on August 14, 1937, the Dow Jones Industrials reached another secondary peak near the March 1937 recovery high, before crashing one more time in late 1937 and on into early 1938.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aedens
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Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

Bond Pricing and Probability
Last edited by aedens on Tue Jul 10, 2012 10:34 am, edited 2 times in total.
Trevor
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Trevor »

A couple other notes I would make that are in line with generational time frames. 80 years ago tomorrow (approximately one saeculum ago), on July 8, 1932, the Dow Jones Industrials reached their Depression low. Nearly 75 years ago, on August 14, 1937, the Dow Jones Industrials reached another secondary peak near the March 1937 recovery high, before crashing one more time in late 1937 and on into early 1938.
I admit, when the crash finally happens, I am expecting it to take place over a very short period of time, around 3-6 months, rather than the three years it took during the early 1930's. It's the one bubble in the country that seems to be holding steady.
aedens
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Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

The truth is that fiat economics has been designed to completely hide the monetary system that is the economy as conveyed. And you expect political economy to hold all of it up. Nope some will just not make it. They are years ahead you in cluster failures.
Z - Spread Best measure of comparable bond value as adjusts for shape of Swap curve
I - Spread Not as good as Z spread as ignores Swap curve shape, but usually a reasonable approximation for high grade bonds
Par ASW Spread A tradable value, not a good value measure for bonds far from par
Last edited by aedens on Tue Jul 10, 2012 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

I haven't a clue how this will go at this point. The Central Bankers and the politicians have this thing so botched up that I can't correlate anything.

One thing I'd watch for though. Watch for a repeat of some past crash, like the 1987 crash. Maybe we will have a crash that lasts about the same number of days as the 1987 crash and loses about the same percentage. Then watch for the media to trumpet a crash low and say it's time to buy, just like it was in 1987 or whatever crash they are comparing it to, with investors like Buffett appearing on media stating that they are buying. After that, watch for the market to not really lift off much, then crash hard one more time. That may be near the low, but probably not the ultimate low. The market may lose another 10-30% over the next couple years after that.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aedens
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Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

Posted was to obtimize for individual stability since risk aggregation is not linear. If you feel cluster spreads puts or calls will provide relief for the average investors like us I wish you all the best. Anthony has it called correctly as the Fed’s Five Year Forward Break-even inflation rate is around 2.48%. We need growth in aggregate demand to start seeing hot inflation. I feel IMO the inflection point is here but we have been pushed into the ditch from poor policy actors as we trend in GD so the obvious is just that. They cannot understand we need to be in the clear. Given the Hills avarice and unfunded realities who is the nominal reality going forward.
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Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

In the third quarter of 2007, as the stock market peaked out, the BLS was reporting nonfarm payroll numbers in the same range as those reported over the past 3 months. The archives of what was actually reported at the time of the news releases can be found here:
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html
Since 2007, those numbers have been revised, showing job losses where gains had been reported at the time of the releases. That data can be found in this table:
ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.compaes.txt
So don't be surprised if the economy is actually losing jobs now.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Reality Check
Posts: 1441
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:07 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Reality Check »

Higgenbotham wrote:In the third quarter of 2007, as the stock market peaked out, the BLS was reporting nonfarm payroll numbers in the same range as those reported over the past 3 months. The archives of what was actually reported at the time of the news releases can be found here:
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html
Since 2007, those numbers have been revised, showing job losses where gains had been reported at the time of the releases. That data can be found in this table:
ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.compaes.txt
So don't be surprised if the economy is actually losing jobs now.
Just to make sure I am reading these tables correctly:

The revised (corrected) numbers show( Third Quarter 2007 ):

July 2007 - a loss of -40,000 Non-Farm Jobs
Aug 2007 - a loss of -18,000 Non-Farm Jobs
but Sep 2007 - a gain of 73,000 Non-Farm Jobs

Or am I missing something here ?
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