Financial topics

[aedens]

This macroeconomic options discussion is well worth watching in it's entirety.

Multiple different points of view from different speakers - at different points in the video.

Kind of rare on CNBC: http://www.cnbc.com/id/48193471

This is more important IMO http://enenews.com/study-all-western-ea ... sion-photo

Also any fiat has no limitations and the intrinsic value has always been zero.
For the past decades, the United States has been consuming capital on a large scale and at an alarming rate. Living standards,already lower
than a decade ago and will continue to fall, the long term stagnation in the British mold seems ever more likely. This destruction of capital is revealed
by the inflation adjusted market value of equity of U.S.corporations. The value of equity has declined by almost one-third during the past decade, in terms
of constant dollars and this was known in 1980 as supplied above. The forums covered this aspect since 1965 in the nomimal graph that was provided.
U.S. corporations fell from $2.8 trillion on December 31, 1968, to $l.7 trillion by December 31, 1980. Prepare, and I was being nice at level two provided.
Also we captured the endogeneity of the money supply from the 1983 report we linked back in the forums.
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... eity#p3862

http://mises.org/daily/4728 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDY-LPRy ... re=related

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 251#p14251

“We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light.” Plato
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 3160#p3160

[aedens]

http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/
In 1526 Kopernicus wrote a study on the value of money, Monetae cudendae ratio. In it he formulated an early iteration of the theory, now called "Gresham's Law," that "bad" (debased) coinage drives "good" (un-debased) coinage out of circulation, 70 years before Gresham. He also formulated a version of quantity theory of money. His work was suppresed as was Sismondi and a few others we have noted. I can reference many works on Keyansians based economics back to 980. Walker (1912) cites the political reality in this context even up to Luther's comments on repressionary design of state affairs.

“Anyone who trades liberty for security deserves neither liberty nor security” I tend to agree with Ben

[aedens]

MIT has a design, Ge has better spooks it appears. Time will tell. http://www.ted.com/talks/donald_sadoway ... nergy.html

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/20 ... battery#p2

[Reality Check]

This macroeconomic options discussion is well worth watching in it's entirety.

Multiple different points of view from different speakers - at different points in the video.

Kind of rare on CNBC: http://www.cnbc.com/id/48193471

This is more important IMO http://enenews.com/study-all-western-ea ... sion-photo

Not sure what the relationship between the two is.

One is a macro economic discussion, brutally honest, of the possible, radically different, near to middle term results, of the ongoing financial crisis.

The other is a radiation map that may, or may not, in the worse case scenario, increase deaths from cancer rates 20 or 30 years from now.

Sad to say more people will likely die, and sooner, from the best case of the ongoing financial crisis than the worse case of the radiation maps.

[aedens]

Spokes in a wheel my friend. The point was 30 years ago we knew what, not when. I was 10 years off on some thoughts to techological onsets.
http://archive.truthout.org/1215091
You may not have 30 years..... Point blank they do even pretend to care.

[Higgenbotham]

Not sure what the relationship between the two is.

One is a macro economic discussion, brutally honest, of the possible, radically different, near to middle term results, of the ongoing financial crisis.

The other is a radiation map that may, or may not, in the worse case scenario, increase deaths from cancer rates 20 or 30 years from now.

Sad to say more people will likely die, and sooner, from the best case of the ongoing financial crisis than the worse case of the radiation maps.

Severe natural or manmade disasters that occur in the Spring or Fall correlate highly with the bursting of bubbles and/or crashes in the Fall of the following year. There are many proven reasons for this and many reasons that can never be proven but seem plausible.

Probably the disaster most similar to Fukushima was Chernobyl, which occurred on April 26, 1986. Stock markets around the world crashed in the Fall of 1987.

The major disasters that come to my mind that fall in this category are:

The Great Chicago and Peshtigo fires (1871)
The San Francisco earthquake and fire (1906)
The Chernobyl accident (1986)
9-11 (2001)
Hurricane Katrina (2005)

And I think Fukushima could be the sixth disaster to unleash a Fall crash the following year. The reason I put Hurricane Katrina on the list is because the real estate bubble began to unravel in the Fall of 2006 but real estate doesn't crash like stock markets do and it was the unraveling of the real estate bubble that then caused the stock market crash some time later.

Part of the problem with any natural disaster, especially one like Fukushima, is supply chains get disrupted which then causes unsustainable bubbles in other locations which mask the results of the disaster for a time. Have you noticed how well the US auto industry has been doing since Fukushima? That's unsustainable and will contribute to the crash.

[Higgenbotham]

Which reminds me, the Chernobyl disaster of April 26, 1986 preceded the US stock market pre-crash high of August 25, 1987 by 16 months (minus a day). I guess a better way to put it is significant weakness in the US stock market began to show up about 16 months after the Chernobyl disaster. And as of now it's been just a bit over 16 months since the Fukushima disaster.

[gerald]

Not sure what the relationship between the two is.

One is a macro economic discussion, brutally honest, of the possible, radically different, near to middle term results, of the ongoing financial crisis.

The other is a radiation map that may, or may not, in the worse case scenario, increase deaths from cancer rates 20 or 30 years from now.

Sad to say more people will likely die, and sooner, from the best case of the ongoing financial crisis than the worse case of the radiation maps.

Severe natural or manmade disasters that occur in the Spring or Fall correlate highly with the bursting of bubbles and/or crashes in the Fall of the following year. There are many proven reasons for this and many reasons that can never be proven but seem plausible.

Probably the disaster most similar to Fukushima was Chernobyl, which occurred on April 26, 1986. Stock markets around the world crashed in the Fall of 1987.

The major disasters that come to my mind that fall in this category are:

The Great Chicago and Peshtigo fires (1871)
The San Francisco earthquake and fire (1906)
The Chernobyl accident (1986)
9-11 (2001)
Hurricane Katrina (2005)

And I think Fukushima could be the sixth disaster to unleash a Fall crash the following year. The reason I put Hurricane Katrina on the list is because the real estate bubble began to unravel in the Fall of 2006 but real estate doesn't crash like stock markets do and it was the unraveling of the real estate bubble that then caused the stock market crash some time later.

Part of the problem with any natural disaster, especially one like Fukushima, is supply chains get disrupted which then causes unsustainable bubbles in other locations which mask the results of the disaster for a time. Have you noticed how well the US auto industry has been doing since Fukushima? That's unsustainable and will contribute to the crash.

A side note ---The Great Chicago and Pestigo Fires (1871), were apparently caused by the remnants of comet Biela.
Which not only caused the Chicago and Pestigo fires but also burned a large area of Wisconsin and Michigan including the City of Holland, Michigan.
The total death toll was well over a thousand and possibly two thousand. The third link provides eye witnesses accounts of the events.
http://www.thunderbolts.info/tpod/2006/ ... gofire.htm
http://www.thunderbolts.info/tpod/2006/ ... 7biela.htm
http://www.thunderbolts.info/tpod/2006/ ... gofire.htm

[Reality Check]

Which reminds me, the Chernobyl disaster of April 26, 1986 preceded the US stock market pre-crash high of August 25, 1987 by 16 months (minus a day). I guess a better way to put it is significant weakness in the US stock market began to show up about 16 months after the Chernobyl disaster. And as of now it's been just a bit over 16 months since the Fukushima disaster.

Got it.

The markets are driven by sentiments as much as by fundamentals. The timing of a bubble bursting may result from an abrupt change in sentiments. The scope of the market move will be driven by the fundamentals of how big the bubble is and how much the risk is leveraged.

The CNBC video is interesting in that it speaks so honestly about if, how, and for how long, if at all, government policies of printing money and attempting to re-inflate bubbles can delay what some ( including myself ) believe is an inevitable collapsing of the bubble.

The straight talk, by multiple people, during this video is unusual.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48193471

[Higgenbotham]

The markets are driven by sentiments as much as by fundamentals. The timing of a bubble bursting may result from an abrupt change in sentiments. The scope of the market move will be driven by the fundamentals of how big the bubble is and how much the risk is leveraged.

With a disasater like Fukushima, fundamentally, there can be some substitution activity and some rebuilding activity which at first makes it seem on the surface that the economy is doing quite well. So, for example, while auto parts manufacturers or semiconductor manufacturers around the world may have been tooling up and replacing Japan's lost production, at the same time, insurance payouts may be coming into the Japanese companies as they rebuild their facilities.

And I think that fits in with the psychological aspects, which (though it can't be proven) societies that experience disasters that result from technological failure first go through a period of denial as individuals typically do. Not only that, but there are coverups, which are another form of denial. And all the activity that follows the disaster reinforces the denial as it makes it appear on the surface that things are still normal. Like the bezzle, the losses show up later. For example, an insurance company that has to make a huge payout isn't going to announce that right away. They may push the accounting off to the end of the next quarter and it gets reported the quarter after that, etc. But as time goes on, the facts come out and the denial lifts and the redundant activity ceases. People lose faith and it might be like a grieving process where denial is then replaced by anger and then acceptance that the society has experience a technological failure and the leadership is a bunch of incompetent liars (I don't know the exact steps of the grieving process).

Another aspect with how these disasters tie together is part of the delusion and denial of the West after Chernobyl and the collapse of the Soviet Union (and Gorbachev has attributed Chernobyl as being a cause of the collapse - Read his essay Turning Point at Chernobyl) was to believe the West was superior and immune to any sort of similar disaster and collapse. Exactly a quarter century later, that delusion is being put to rest and people are realizing that all of humanity is incompetent and susceptible. The Fukushima reactors were built by GE, which is run by incompetents who probably wouldn't even still be in business without subsidies and bailouts. If one were to want to date a possible time frame for the collapse of the West, a quarter century after the collapse of the Berlin Wall may be as good as any - November 2014.

The nuclear meltdown at Chernobyl 20 years ago this month, even more than my launch of perestroika, was perhaps the real cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union five years later. Indeed, the Chernobyl catastrophe was an historic turning point: there was the era before the disaster, and there is the very different era that has followed.

Turning Point at Chernobyl
Mikhail Gorbachev

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commen ... -chernobyl