Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&hilit=whitehall&start=4130#p10168
H seeing some full circle and prisoner dilemma again, sprinkle in some nash for fun.

On it rolls. Today's news falls under the heading in the Whitehall post defined as "Monitoring":

Fed officials have long fought the audit bill, arguing it would compromise their independence. Chairman Ben Bernanke told House lawmakers last week it would open the door to a "nightmare scenario" of political meddling in monetary policy decisions.

Meanwhile, we see weakness in tech/strength in late stage companies like Caterpillar with the HGX turning over and moving out of its recent 3 week range and 4 year high in the index. In the past month, we may have seen a process of rolling over that took all of 2005 to 2008 to complete when the HGX first rolled over on July 27, 2005 to when Sandisk conveyed consumer related weakness on May 19, 2008, while that day Caterpillar and Honeywell, etc., continued to show strength as the market made its final gasp.

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... lar#p12963

[OLD1953]

I think Congress will agree on both cuts and increases but only after the election. They won't pass anything until they can blame "those guys" in the outgoing Congress for it.

I will point out that at this time, according to a CNN poll, 27% of the country has moved to my side, saying the tax cuts should simply expire with no further meddling. Nearly 50% are saying they want middle class cuts to remain but the persons making over 250K to increase. So you are essentially arguing that Congress will go against 3/4 of the people to preserve tax cuts, which seems unlikely to me. Of course, much will depend on the makeup of Congress after the election, I doubt it will change much, just as I expect Obama to be reelected.

Can Congress actually act now to alleviate the coming pain? Yes, there is much they COULD do, but they lack the political will to do it. Therefore, they will not take the bitter pills, they'll wait until the patient collapses and then try to act.

A reminder here, tax increases spent inside the US are generally neither a plus or negative on the economy per se at the time they are spent, what they are spent on may improve things in the future (dams, power plants, roads) or not (food stamps, etc) but any negative coming from taxing 10$ from Joe will be countered by the 10$ spent by Jill. (Arguements about the percentage reaching Jill are moot, the money is still spent, 100% of it.) The sole negative would be if they tried to pay off the national debt in some accelerated form, which I'll expect to see happen the day flying pigs start crapping gold coins outside my windows.

My point about growth in US manufacturing seems to be misunderstood, there was a net loss of 6 million jobs in that sector over the ten years from 2000 to 2010. Even a reduction of losses would be good news, that it appears to have bottomed out and actually seeing growth in the sector is excellent news indeed. Curves plunge to a nadir, then they TURN AROUND and start back up. We appear to have passed the worst for the manufacturing sector in the US. I doubt manufacturing will somehow "save us" and I doubt anything can or will, but actual good news about any part of the economy is a rare thing these days, so cherish it.

[Matt J]

And they kicked the can again in Europe... enough to drive the US market up. Continuing the funneling of Taxpayer assets (future payers that is) into the hands of the wall street banksters.

how much longer will the promise to print money in Europe work to keep the market afloat?

[Reality Check]

My point about growth in US manufacturing seems to be misunderstood, there was a net loss of 6 million jobs in that sector over the ten years from 2000 to 2010. Even a reduction of losses would be good news, that it appears to have bottomed out and actually seeing growth in the sector is excellent news indeed. Curves plunge to a nadir, then they TURN AROUND and start back up. We appear to have passed the worst for the manufacturing sector in the US. I doubt manufacturing will somehow "save us" and I doubt anything can or will, but actual good news about any part of the economy is a rare thing these days, so cherish it.

The above information would be significant if it were a full picture of what has been happening over that past 40 years, the reasons it has been happening, and there was evidence that a true NADIR had been reached and a strong rebound was truly in progress.

For example:

My point about growth in US manufacturing seems to be misunderstood, there was a net loss of 6 million jobs in that sector over the ten years from 2000 to 2010.

The substantial loss of manufacturing jobs began in the 1970s and has continued in every decade since then. There are many fundamental reasons for these huge job losses , and if those fundamental reasons had been reversed, that would indeed be important new. But the opposite is true.

Huge manufacturing wage differentials remain between the U.S. and China, India and other asian manufacturing giants still exist. Health care costs paid by manufacturing companies in the U.S. remains a huge burden for U.S. manufacturing and it does not hinder the large manufacturing companies in Asia. Obama care fails to fix that problem and instead makes it worse. Mining, a key United States economic sector needed to support manufacturing, has also left the United States over that same 40 year period. High U.S. taxes on manufacturing corporations and double taxation on manufacturing dividends in the United States has pushed, and continues to push, U.S. manufacturing jobs out of the United States. Strict, and unnecessarily burdensome to comply with, Environmental laws in the United States make both mining and manufacturing in the United States vastly more expensive in the United States than many other locations these activities can be done.

These underlying reasons manufacturing jobs left have not reversed in the last year, or last 2 years, or last 3 years, or the last decade.

Even a reduction of losses would be good news, that it appears to have bottomed out and actually seeing growth in the sector is excellent news indeed. Curves plunge to a nadir, then they TURN AROUND and start back up. We appear to have passed the worst for the manufacturing sector in the US.

The number of manufacturing jobs have declined substantially for every decade, for the past four decades. There is no solid evidence we have reached the true NADIR nor is there any evidence at all that the up side of a V shaped up curve has been reached. Indeed the evidence than any up curve at all has been reached, regardless how short and weak it is, is also being put in question by the constant revision of the few very slightly positive months that appeared to exist before the revisions.

actual good news about any part of the economy is a rare thing these days, so cherish it.

The number of jobs as a percentage of working age people has been declining for at least four years now. Nothing in the manufacturing jobs numbers, which have, after decades of manufacturing jobs moving out of the United States, become an almost insignificant portion of the United States economy, has changed that.


Even if one believes the reported declining estimates of illegal immigration by the Obama administration the official records of births indicate the United States is unable to even begin a recovery capable of generating enough jobs for the increase in population. People getting out of college and people in their fifties are dropping out of the work force due to the current economy. As a result both the absolute number of people working and the official unemployment rate are dropping at the same time for the first time in history.

There is nothing to celebrate in the manufacturing jobs number, or any other numbers related to so-called "job increases" in this economy.

[aedens]

This wave formation H has me concerned. You refocused what we have been seeing on the progression of it.
As we have noted on the narrative the wasting process overwhelmes more and IT targeting has transfered to capital raids.
Olds observation on Laws being enforced, fines being levied - maybe there is a trend, was noted by the DOJ
on expert networks but vanilla knows point blank ever since we had been targeted for annilalation from repressionary Statist design.

I mused back then "I think fear is motive. Vanilla is pissed and the latency of effect is kicking in. Also, I understand these are complex cases so we must temper our response also. Hard to do at times but we can only hope we are making the transition in this market cycle. Blind trust is just that, we sorta know better how this works out since Brooksley Born! Countless members asked them to stop the nonsence. You must truly, as I do enjoy the meme we are here to serve the taxpayer! Ok, go away and take half with you! " So we can collaspe and sort out the dead wood quicker. Look around and see who and what is going on around you. I have, nothing is moving in around us. I will truly look harder as you spend us into oblivion Sam, thanks for asking!

Guys like Gramm and countless others are laughing at us all the way to the bank. If you follow the money these bucket shops that are alive and well you can see the legislative footsteps and the actual end of the Republic before most even drew breath anyway in this Nation is fact.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline ... emise.html
Many years ago I was witness to what I was warned of then. Between the hands all things are done. The left and the right hand have done there works. Both have taken more than they can see and there defence will be sized to meet the scope of the issue on things under the Sun. They have evolved to tyrants on both sides on there purity of intent. One for land on the right and the other for education with the left and the people payed more than they even can concieve.

It was said then he believe the future lies with,
1.State trading for commodities;
2.International cartels for necessary manufactures; and
3.Quantitive import restrictions for nonessential manufactures.
Yet all these future instrumentalities for orderly economic life in the future you seek to outlaw.

Everybody know's what is going on.
No you cheerfull and usefull are at the mercy of civilized people. That is the problem I guess. Problem is a third party just may not
be needed at all since there may not be anything left and only then some may realize we truly have reaped what was sown. We shall see...

Nietzsche even before his mental breakdown was so sickly that the only climate he could stand was that of the Engadin valley and of some Italian districts. He would not have been in a position to accomplish his work if civilized society had not protected his delicate nerves against the roughness of life. The apostles of violence wrote their books under the sheltering roof of "bourgeois security" which they derided and disparaged. They were free to publish their incendiary sermons because the liberalism which they scorned safeguarded freedom of the press. LVM

[Higgenbotham]

This wave formation H has me concerned. You refocused what we have been seeing on the progression of it.

This is like a horror movie. The economy is clearly rolling over. There's nothing left. Apparently, having realized that, the response is to douse everything in gasoline and light a match.

I guess I should be specific. Anyone can open up the Reuters news archives and read about how the economic cycle progresses and what happened first and last, then extrapolate as to how that may change this particular time. As a general rule we know the semiconductor equipment manufacturers will exhibit weakness early on as the cycle rolls over. I had noted the different role of the homebuilders previously and now, and perhaps why. The large industrial equipment manufacturers and other Dow components will show strength at the end on days where high tech does not. And so on.

As that happens you know the stock market is losing value. It will come down eventually. Now why in the hell would anyone want to threaten hyperinflation and get the herd in a panic to indiscriminately buy stocks or cover shorts when the inevitable end point of this is toward less value and there is nothing anyone can do to stop that. That's a guaranteed recipe for a worse crash than 2008, and probably the worst crash in history. At the very least we can say he (Draghi) has only made things worse.

Also, you may have read or seen the Buffett interview 2 or 3 weeks back where he noted that out of the companies and industries he monitors, only housing was still in growth mode.

I'm seeing a crash pattern in the stock chart from June 19 to today's close, so we shall see how that plays out.

[aedens]

Yea I caught up, I agree and a few stable segments may be washed over is what we are watching. Housing here is in a slowing spiral and dead on the hoof.
Democrats indeed did pour fuel on exactly the wrong time.
Other than that http://www.businessinsider.com/goldmans ... -2012-7#-1
I have noted basket beta seams for limited opportunity on selects with given head winds.

Noted before; The laboratory is being used to recruit and train junior traders and to provide continuous learning and
development for their more senior colleagues. markit Beta drag queens IMO

I guess the term basket case for the beta runners is the play for the day.
Nevertheless beta is useless when legislation changes are made.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb3WTqfG ... re=related 03 08:09 "Any Major Dude Will Tell You"

2009 positive correlation between equities and money markets was purely driven as a result of cheap leverage.
2009 The only motive the households would have to invest more freely in the markets is if their underlying debt were to decline.
And as the Z.1 indicates it has been flat at $13 trillion for over 2 years now.
2012 However, instead of going into equities as the Group of 30 and other central planners had hoped, the hundreds of billions of euros merely shifted into already negative nominal rate fixed income instruments. And who can blame them: money market capital does not seek return on capital but return of capital. So while U.S. consumers and U.S. banks are stuck in this vicious loop, it is foolish to make any judgments that the money on the
sidelines will spark any additional rallies.
Obviously, attempts to push capital out of MMs have succeeded: after peaking at $3.9 trillion, currently money markets hold a two year low of $3.27 trillion. Furthermore, the number of actual money market fund operations has been substantially hit: from 2,078 in the days after the Lehman implosion, this is now down to 1,828, a 12% reduction. tyler
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFpG0391 ... re=related 29:06 Listening Wind

Increased transportation is a sign of a healing economy, as noted.
As we posited time can and will heal some. Latency of repair is another and that to date cannot be denied in the local context of area.
Beaten down, and wasting. Demographical wastings for more than not a few. PPI -15 to -20 as noted with another inflation burst will
blow it all to hell once and for all IMO.

[aedens]

xxxxxx April stock offering was managed by Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and other premiere Wall Street underwriters. All of the stock sold in the offering was sold by xxxxx insiders. None of the cash raised in the offering went to the company. The xxxxx underwriters were paid ~$15 million of fees to arrange this cash-out. xxxxx, the company, also paid $1 million in expenses to facilitate the cash-out (legal fees, private jet rental, etc.)
And, thanks to the offering, the xxxxx insiders took $516 million off the table just before the stock crashed.

It will never end until you stop buying with these predators.

[John]

Facebook was never more than a fad. Its myspace time is coming.

[Marc]

Facebook was never more than a fad. Its "myspace time" is coming.

Interesting perspective on Facebook — and there's been, as we know, plenty of debate about its future fortunes. Facebook, in my humble opinion, may prove to have significant staying power if it is able to perform, somewhat akin to Google, as a valuable utility for the long haul.

Facebook already seems to have a good niche as a "comment utility" that can be plugged into various websites to provide a comment-board forum. Perhaps another area it may show promise in is as an office-communications utility that is used as a virtual platform to augment face-to-face communications in offices/organizations. And, with better graphic embellishments, Facebook may even do an improved and more-admired job of connecting communities — not only schools and such, but apartment complexes, military units, and other physical arrangements of people. By the way, I don't work for Facebook or own any stock in the venture, but I feel that if Facebook can prove itself as an online utility of sorts, it may prove to have more staying power than frequently thought. Others' opinions are welcome on this if anyone has anything to add. Thanks, John, for sharing. —Best regards, Marc