Financial topics

[aedens]

It was said the worst part was to live in the lie from Aleksandr Isayevich Solzhenitsyn.
As observed the left has no monopoly on cultural warfare so we may consider that the right has no
monopoly on the critique that tolerance, or to questions virtue since freedom is made possible
by letting things be. Jefferson warned to restrain men from injuring one another, [and which] shall
leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not
take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned.

[vincecate]

The situation may end up worse here than in the former Soviet Union or Europe for several reasons:
1. The collapse of the Soviet Union and Europe have masked how bad things are in the US, so when the US begins to collapse its fiscal situation will be relatively worse.
2. Americans are too arrogant and brainwashed to consider breaking the country up into manageable self-governing pieces.
3. There won't be any other area of the world that the US can rely on for aid when it collapses; in fact, China will probably cut the US off.

When other countries have had hyperinflation they could use US dollars as a sort of "plan B" and things were OK. But there is no such plan B for the US when the US dollar goes.

If the Arabs and Chines stop accepting new US paper money for their goods, they would end the "exorbitant privilege" that the US now has. They both must do this at some point or they will suffer the pain from the worthless money instead of the US. At some point the US must lose the ability to send pieces of paper with pictures of dead men on them and get huge ships full of real stuff in return. It is just too crazy to go on forever.

[Higgenbotham]

When other countries have had hyperinflation they could use US dollars as a sort of "plan B" and things were OK. But there is no such plan B for the US when the US dollar goes.

That's one reason why this time really is different. Not only does the US have no plan B for itself, it has no plan B for the rest of the world, or any valid explanation as to why it is unnecessarily, selfishly, and wantonly destroying the world reserve currency, thus creating worldwide hardship. Zimbabwe can inflate their currency and not cause any hardship in the rest of the world, but that's not true of the world reserve currency.

[aedens]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-day ... erty-level

Retail spending report we noted...
It was said the worst part was to live in the lie from Aleksandr Isayevich Solzhenitsyn.
Democrats win election. Over 70 million scared out of there mind. 2016-2018 poof
As we noted no comment on Korean FTA

That dismal outlook on the demand side is compounded by concerns over excess supply. Industry analysts say auto manufacturers in Europe maintain around 30% more production capacity than the market will bear. Like other dying industries of the past century, the global auto industry has entered decline after having fully embedded itself in the political complex. Regardless of political leaning, federal governments from Europe, to Japan, to the United States have and will continue to do everything possible to save the industry. US automakers received their first bailout in late 2008 from the Bush Administration. The bailouts continued in the Obama Administration. (Both presidencies that could hardly be more dissimilar, but were united in their assumption of an enduring future for cars). For Republicans -- a party that claims to adhere to free-market principles -- releasing a first payment of over $13 billion to the industry was a classic foxhole-conversion in the midst of the financial crisis. For Democrats -- a party that claims to be concerned with climate change, the environment, and public transport -- the enormous financial support to the industry was only one part of the current administration’s continued embrace of the auto-highway complex.

[OLD1953]

I don't doubt there will be a future for personal transportation, but I am not sure what it will look like. I can think of a number of ways to change the world, but the will to make any of these changes is absent. The idea of decentralized power production seems to be taboo in all circles, even though it's slowly happening. Now, here's a question, why can't there be a solar film over road surfaces, and allow cars to charge from the road? There's trillions of square feet of blacktop. It's obviously not impossible, any further discussion regards engineering details that nobody has studied, as yet.

Texas crude is down around 95, gold is about 1620, both way off the highs. One would think inflation would affect commodities first. Market is dead or slightly down. If Apple breaks downwards, it'll start a rout. I think this is pointing towards the deflation model, not the inflation one. (A year ago, gold was at 1900, silver near 45. If the market had dropped even as much as gold in proportion, then we'd be saying rout. Silver is down about 28, and we'd be calling that collapse. In proportion, that would be about 11,000 on the gold side, 8088 on the silver side, starting with a market of 13,000. I'd say its coming, with the solid commodities pointing the way. Copper is an oddity, the other base metals are right along with silver. I think China was into the copper stockpiling heavily enough to alter the copper picture.)

Romney winning is the same situation in reverse, 70 million people will be screaming in fear of his policies. I seriously doubt he can win, any more than a bishop in the Catholic Church could win. As I said a few months ago, the RP threw in the towel when they confirmed Obama's judicial appointments, instead of holding them till after the election. That was more than enough evidence for me, appointment of judges has been held in the RP since Reagan expanded the judiciary back in the 80's, making over 80% of the judges appointed to the federal bench Republican appointees at the end of the first Bush term. Think the figure was 86%, but won't swear to it. And that was why Clinton's appointments ran into trouble, gaining control of appointment to the third branch was a very big deal, and the RP was loathe to let it go. Power is the thing for both parties and all the leaders, and pretending it isn't is foolish. If they didn't want power over the rest of us, they'd be doing something else.

Would an attack on Iran spark WWIII? I don't know, and where I'm sitting right now I'm on the front lines if that happens. I'm seriously considering moving to a new job just because of that, I've been mortared and rocketed quite enough for my taste. For those interested in Israel, I suggest reading haaretz.com, quite a few of the headlines shock me, and I'm used to the MidEast. Israel is in its own "Arab Spring", just not as obviously as the Arab countries.

I doubt the US "breaking up", but it could happen. I'd think it more likely to pull together after a crash leading into WWIII, but who knows? I don't have a crystal ball, all I have are guesses, like everyone else. I do see a LOT of "prepare for doom" websites, and that's a hopeful sign, because the more people who are fearful of financial collapse, the less destructive the collapse will be, assuming they save money, cut excess spending, etc.

There is an awful lot of trying to run away from the changes and challenges of the future, instead of meeting them head on, but that's just human nature to avoid the hard work. It will come upon us anyhow, and we'd just as soon start to get it done as constantly putting it off. Putting off hard work is another signature political move.

[Higgenbotham]

I doubt the US "breaking up", but it could happen. I'd think it more likely to pull together after a crash leading into WWIII, but who knows? I don't have a crystal ball, all I have are guesses, like everyone else.

The implicit assumption in my statement was that the deterioration in the fiscal condition of a geographic area on the periphery of Europe or the US will eventually lead to a breakup, similar to the breakup of the Soviet Union. That alone isn't a sufficient cause or reason; it's only a symptom. I'll try to go into the common causes at a later date.

After reading your post, I started searching for some references. I ran across this article for starters. I think these guys are on the right track in their thinking. I'm not familiar with any methods that can be used to quantify or project that precisely. All I would really say is that the municipal bankruptcies, if they begin to worsen at an increasing rate, would indicate that the US will need to restructure, and quickly. The conditions that are leading to the bankruptcy of these municipalities can't be cured if the US remains as is, but can only get worse is what I mean. If restructured proactively, it could lead to the preservation of the US as a stable political entity. I'm not sure there's enough time or will to do that. In making that statement, I'm not thinking about 2018 as being a drop dead date. If you'd asked me before reading the article, I'd have said and still would say that it could be as far out as 2022.
http://www.ontonix.com/index.php?page=3 ... &IDDOC=735

[aedens]

OLD get the hell out of there. As we all could convey we have numerous friends and family over there and thank God
there home now. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSIw09oq ... re=related
I was reminded to never let facts get in the way of decimated people.
They will have no choice but to disconnect H as the left coast and right coast suck the marrow out of productive left standing.
Spending trillions to blow up a few assholes and goat farmers who got in the way. I have had many in the military who tell it like it is.
Do not get me wrong we all want the military prepared. Our point was a few hundred step out we locate and anything with wings
is all sent and finish it since we served notice. The first time in Iraq the people pointed which direction to go.
The second time there arms were crossed in contempt. Any body that can think knew what was coming then.
Europe did what they do - Nothing - http://i-am-kurd.tumblr.com/ We sent two from my family. One for the second time
and one for the first. As conveyed both are retired and have friends in the ME. Do not even pretend from the press or
so called official edicts what was or was not done. After that the same old hearts and mind bullshit as our children
are slaughtered for Washingtons lets try this again think tanks. I call Bullshit point blank, we just buried two more
from Michigan for these assholes. Brillant statesmanship from these educated myopic short stains.
So we are concentrated, so we can micro cluster elsewhere to dazzle the taxpayers to save the planet.
Problem is the taxpayers and the rest of the planet know this also. You cannot kill all these idiots.
They told us point blank from the middle east what had to be done and you all know what that was.
Mali as we speak is now over. You watch the liberal news and all they bleat as sheep
is they need more money "right away". I will get to the point, half of the senate should be voter fired to get the point across
and eliminate the other twenty five percent of these NPD insane water walkers. What point do these educated fools
fail to understand. You will see by the end of the year what Corporations are doing.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... macare.png
As far as the people I know convey those math inhibited pricks can all post there tax returns and shut the hell up.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-pos ... depression

[jcsok]

Great post Aedens. Permit me to add one more request: Provide certified copies of birth certificates.

[OLD1953]

Are you asking for Ryans, Romneys or Bidens? Now, McCain's would be interesting, but nobody ever asked for it.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/bi ... ficate.asp

Myself, I just wish there was a real choice, because there isn't. There's no difference in past practice. Do you really believe all this last minute conversion to "really radical conservative stuff"? Because I don't, and anyhow, the RP doesn't support any of that, they just play it to shore up the base, just like Dems play the old "we're for unions and women and public workers" to shore up the base. Yeah, and what did either side do when they had control? Neither Dems nor Repubs moved to enact ANY of these "dreams". (If you think Obamacare is in any way related to "socialized medicine", dream on. Socialized anything does NOT give money and power to private insurance entities.) The DLC has ensured that actual differences between the parties are nonexistent. Gridlock is due to simple intransigence and playing politics, not difference in goals or beliefs. Why else do you think BOTH sides have people demonstrating against their own "leaders".

Anyhow, given that, the election will make no difference whatsoever in actual policy, none, nada, forget it, whoever wins will "tearfully" continue the policies as they sit. Obama will claim Congress is forcing him (what, the veto pen ran out of ink? get a stamp!) and Romney will claim the Democrats are just too powerful (LOL). Anyone want to bet against it? It will go that way until we get a crash and burn that can't be glossed over by the Fed, which could happen before the election, and that would be interesting indeed. With luck, we'll get a different Fed or no Fed at all. (I admit it, I'm a dreamer!) The primary purpose of the Fed has become dispensation of favors from on high. This is not legitimate, they have no business picking winners.

Oh well, time to stop grumbling about government and look at reality for a minute or two.

The market took a decent drop today, we have likely seen the high. Its entirely possible we've seen the high for the decade. Time will tell. I can't see how Apple can maintain its high valuation. If they've got a new product in the wings that might be totally popular on the level of the iPad or iPhone, they've not said anything about it that I've seen. Playing in the television markets won't cut it. As has been noted before, Apple is a huge percentage of the market now. If Apple dropped to a more normal valuation, it would be the same as California housing dropping to normal levels, the whole market would look like the bottom fell out, even if nothing else changed at all.

Solar energy stocks are in the news, and that's interesting. When I managed to get to the states for a while recently, I noted some new solar installations going in. Solar just keeps getting cheaper. I always heard that when prices for solar went below a dollar a watt, solar would take off. Electricity was a lot cheaper then too.
http://www.wholesalesolar.com/products. ... P-240.html

SEC issued the first whistleblower award under Dodd-Frank. That might send a chill through the finance houses.

Hope all that makes sense, I'm sitting up in the middle of the night trying to stay awake to catch a military flight in a few hours. IOW, I'm a bit out of it.

[aedens]

http://www.todayszaman.com/news-290032- ... syria.html

Nasty bar fight as always with the left and right usefull and cheerfull it was said. Genocidal maniacs and not a bar fight as we all know. As we mentioned the left has the wheel we will see them eat themselves at there own dinnner table soon. Another round of housing tax seisures came out today I was told. Oh, the M2 velocity since Democrats just love ignoring your own projections. Go ahead and scream more taxes as our neighbors are being evicted just before the election to your loving utopian embrace hope and changy thingy. Even the wife looked at me like are we staying in the State when we retire...
Red and Blue and that is not rain water on your back. They do not even pretend now.