Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

OLD1953 wrote:JP Morgan/Bear Stearns taken to court in New York. It's pretty much on track to the 30's timeline I alluded to a couple of months ago.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-b ... 1301.story

In a lawsuit filed in New York State Supreme Court late Monday, New York Atty. Gen. Eric. T. Schneiderman contends that JPMorgan should be held liable for widespread fraud related to the packaging and sale of securities backed by residential mortgages
Confirmation Link O
details all the illegal actions the NY AG was looking at re Bear's mtg team and you'll see how much he left out of his fraud suit against $JPM $BS. It starts on page two. Check out the double booking of loans as collateral in the short term paper market..

https://docs.google.com/file/d/12OSmDQC ... edit?pli=1
OLD1953
Posts: 946
Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2009 11:16 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by OLD1953 »

I'll presume you are speaking of Hero's steam engine, there was more than one early set of mechanical innovations, evidence of them is plentiful in Egypt, Greece and Rome have left written records of some experiments, and devices have been found from other innovators.

I'd say that part of the reason was the effort required for mining metals and limitations on fuel, and part was simply that the engines they did develop have no practical purpose. Hero's steam engine was a remarkably impractical device and there is little means to improve it, it takes a complete redesign and an entirely different mechanism. Also, the political/practical reason of "what do we do with a population that's heavily weighted to slaves" is not something they could have ignored even if they had a practical engine. The machine age started after the black death depopulated Europe and relieved pressure on food and fuel, while starving labor markets, there was little perceived need in Rome or Greece for a mechanical means of making workers more efficient. What the Romans needed desperately was a means of fast communications, and they never got it. They would have loved both telegraph and rail, but it takes several breakthroughs to reach that point, and they just never had the need for the early stages of those developments, just as Arabs never used electricity for anything but electroplating and possibly rust removal.

Aedens, prosecutors usually bring charges on what they believe will get a conviction in court. I'm simply delighted to see any of these guys going down. I did check the news, and there's a lot of movement of personnel in and out of the brokerages this last few weeks. Protecting their skins or deserting a sinking ship, I don't know which. A few upscale convictions and there will be a major influence from New York on national politics four years from now. People will want to see more of that type of action.
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

http://www.cavalloditroia.org/2012/05/c ... rillo.html

Summarized from http://www.cavalloditroia.org/2012/05/c ... rillo.html (who is behind Beppe Grillo?)

"Editor of Beppe Grillo is CASALEGGIO ASSOCIATI, members of which are high-ranked members of the ASPEN INSTITUTE, US think tank, members of which are politicians from both sides of the spectrum of italian politics (http://www.aspeninstitute.it/istituto/c ... -esecutivo, http://www.aspeninstitute.it/istituto/c ... -direttivi).
Plenty of "Old Boys" in those lists, ex-members of previous italian governments.
The Aspen Institute is financed by the CARNEGIE CORPORATION, THE ROCKFELLER BROTHERS FUND and the FORD FOUNDATION"
ht grateful
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

tightly clustered this year. To me this conveys red lipstick is wearing off and the girls are lets say, tired to be polite...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-0 ... sing-rally
The HY we noted some time ago are specific not clustered as such for us independant natured...
The only thing going down is the usual suspects, and cat herding the only thinking investors solvent...
"justice is the advantage of the stronger" as we noted earlier for well over 2500 cycles to avarice.
Trevor
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Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Financial topics

Post by Trevor »

Some might offer the idea that metal working wasn't advanced enough to hold the required pressures or some other technical reason, but I doubt that was the ultimate cause of the failure to advance. At certain times in history there seems to be movement in the direction of ignorance or darkness, as you say, and loss of permanence. This trend can be seen in money, record keeping, food, clothing, relationships, job tenure, how often people move, structures, or just about everything, where there is a loss of durability and a goal of just getting through the near term. That also speaks to T's observation about not preparing by getting out of the system - the mentality is to do something that works for a while.
Empires also had plenty of cheap labor at the time and their lives were considered worthless, so it didn't seem necessary to take the final steps in creating a steam engine. In Rome, something like 1/3 of the population were enslaved.
Marc
Posts: 263
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2010 10:49 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Marc »

Trevor wrote:
Some might offer the idea that metal working wasn't advanced enough to hold the required pressures or some other technical reason, but I doubt that was the ultimate cause of the failure to advance. At certain times in history there seems to be movement in the direction of ignorance or darkness, as you say, and loss of permanence. This trend can be seen in money, record keeping, food, clothing, relationships, job tenure, how often people move, structures, or just about everything, where there is a loss of durability and a goal of just getting through the near term. That also speaks to T's observation about not preparing by getting out of the system - the mentality is to do something that works for a while.
Empires also had plenty of cheap labor at the time and their lives were considered worthless, so it didn't seem necessary to take the final steps in creating a steam engine. In Rome, something like 1/3 of the population were enslaved.
Valid points, all. What I also respectfully believe helped Europe enter the Modern/Industrial Age was: a slow absorption of the fragments of Greco-Roman learning that took place during the Middle Ages, as well as translation/absorption of valuable learning coming in from the Eastern world; the creation of a "learning curiosity" that was likely at least significantly caused by the discovery of the aforementioned learning and the inheritance of Greco-Roman culture, and its melding with some Germanic traditions; and this learning curiosity also motivating Europeans in the Middle Ages to work very hard for small gains. Slow but sure mixtures of rationalism, curiosity, and passion seemed to come together to allow the early Western Modern Age to finally happen.

This thus fostered the first viable modern mechanical inventions, including firearms and later industrial achievements — a process which was surely also helped along by the thinning out of the European population via the Black Death. The glimmerings of modern nation-states arose, which could be held together by changes in military, transportation, and communications technology. And, as labor became more sought-after and higher-priced due to the Black Death, this surely empowered the common folk to have more say in how society was shaped — and the modern nation-state and "worker empowerment" likely worked together to create the modern saecula, and modern history, that Strauss and Howe wrote about in their seminal works.

This westernization process is, of course, still going on today, and is no doubt a key factor in much of the unrest we see today in parts of the non-Western world — places that are facing real tensions regarding the integration of their traditional non-Western cultures with fragments of modern Western culture.

Thanks, all, for sharing in this interesting discussion and debate. —Best regards, Marc
Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Marc wrote:This thus fostered the first viable modern mechanical inventions, including firearms and later industrial achievements — a process which was surely also helped along by the thinning out of the European population via the Black Death. The glimmerings of modern nation-states arose, which could be held together by changes in military, transportation, and communications technology. And, as labor became more sought-after and higher-priced due to the Black Death, this surely empowered the common folk to have more say in how society was shaped — and the modern nation-state and "worker empowerment" likely worked together to create the modern saecula, and modern history, that Strauss and Howe wrote about in their seminal works.
A few months ago I had mentioned Colin McEvedy's population studies. Probably a relevant aspect of these studies to what you mentioned related to learning curiosity and worker empowerment is the fact that, after the Black Death thinned the population out and the population of Europe stagnated at about 60 million for a few decades, there was net migration into cities. By contrast, when the population of the Roman Empire was similarly reduced, there was no similar net migration. I think your post is a great summary of the many factors that created the right environment for the Industrial Age to happen.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aedens
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Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/2 ... Investment
Guess who is not after Paper.

The Market Vane Bullishness index is at the high end of the range and as the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) data indicate, the net speculative long positions on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on the CME have already surged to record high levels. In other words, a lot of the buying power that pundits were expecting has already been... ht dave

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com ... kruptcies/

They want the sheep to double down on the current savings rate which has slipped in aggregate.
I would not leave any money on the table at the end of day. I was asked if I bury money in mason jars.
After some time as many also have concluded when they get it this time they have it coming.
Ask Carlyle if paper is the play of the day. At the end of the day I hold treasury notes.
As we understand here stocks are for rent. How hard is it for plain vanilla to get it and survive.
Last edited by aedens on Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Now I would have a question to ask of all.

In thinking about Hero's steam engine and the various other steam engines and mechanical devices of the Roman era, what is your estimate as to the technological progress the Romans had made? Let's say 0 is a blank slate with no conception of such a device and 100 is the modern industrial age. Approximately where did the Romans fall on that scale?

On a similar scale from 0 to 100, where is our computer and information age technology at present in relation to what computers and information age technology will ultimately become?

My answer to both is (approximately) 10.

One obvious rebuttal to that estimate can be made by looking at the relative application of industrial age inventions to the Roman economy versus the application of information age inventions to the present economy. So far as I know, the Romans didn't routinely apply any industrial age inventions to agricultural production. In the present economy, every factory has tied computers into the industrial production and distribution processes over the past 20-30 years.

Another way to look at making an estimate is to ask what it is that industrial age and information age technology ultimately accomplish. Industrial age technology performs work that humans or animals would have to perform using their muscle power, primarily movement of raw materials, production of goods, movement of goods, and human transport. Information age technology could be compared to this most obviously by saying the ultimate purpose of this technology would be in performing mental work that humans would have to perform using their own brains. Exactly what that mental work is comprised of may be the key question. Computations, drafting, proof reading and many other mental tasks are already being routinely performed by computers. If the ultimate mental work is comprised of discovering new knowledge, decision making, formulating policy, or things like that, then there haven't been many routine applications.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7999
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

aedens wrote:I would not leave any money on the table at the end of day.
Good advice I think. We got the September 26 turn as a low and now we'll see what early to mid October brings. Until then, I've been doing as you state.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
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