Financial topics

[aedens]

Pointless attitudes going forward. As we noted debt overhang is like a consumer with cement boots on.
Doctor Koo is worth reading but painfull to note going forward. Modern does not mean lucid Subjects.
Reggy points this out rather well.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... ake-tough-

[aedens]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-0 ... uity-bulls
Bureaucracy destroys initiative. Herbert

[OLD1953]

Again,

Can we at least agree that if Obama now has the ability to re-write laws without Congress, then Obama no longer has to work with Congress to implement changes to existing law ???

Only in the sense that every President has that power. All Presidents have been able to direct the regulatory agencies as to how to do their job, Obama is no exception. Reagan and Bush (Sr) did quite a bit of that with the IRS. Lyndon Johnson directed the FBI and Justice Dept. to focus attention on the activities of the KKK and cut back on looking for hidden commies, which caused a good bit of excitement in Congress at the time.

I've not seen or heard of anything out of line in those respects that Obama has done, there's the usual hand wringing but that's normal. What in particular are you talking about that he has done in this regards that is out of line with things done by the last three Presidents before him?

Bureaucracy is a drag on everything.

There is one thing about debt here that is a brighter note, US corporations have refinanced everything at very low rates. So they are in better shape effectively due to lower debt service costs. How much of a stimulus to business this is, I truly do not know, it's less of a negative, but how much less? Debt overhang on consumers is terrible though.

Looking ahead a bit, I think I can see what is coming, it's not very pretty. What will actually come out of the "fiscal cliff" meetings will be tax increases, budget cuts and an agreement for some sort of sanctions against trade. This sanction will doubtless be given a cheerful patriotic name but it will simply be a tariff against China primarily, and other countries to a lessor degree. If I was naming a bill like that it would be called something like the "Fair and Free trade Patriotic All American jobs and training act", and have Congress make a big fuss about a few bucks in the bill for training workers. But the real meat will be in allowing the President to slap a sizeable penalty on any country with a variety of offenses against US trade, most especially to include currency ties or manipulation in their favor. That may not happen as part of the fiscal cliff meetings, but I'll be surprised if it takes more than another year or two. This could be done in a beneficial way, but given history, that's not likely to happen.

My market prediction came off exactly, election over, market drops. Always a winner!

[aedens]

http://reformed-theology.org/html/books ... index.html

recap http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-pos ... depression

Beltway elites and country-club establishment was conveyed. GOP will never see the light ever again until the pain is so intense
even the actual true liberals get it on both sides to what they both done. Many independants seen that the RINO's seen the writing on
the wall to actual demographics. Hardline conveyed well we will spend them into corner so they do not dare raise the debt.
He said he would cut the debt in half and the reality was it was doubled. Plainly both are clearly certified and sown with us as road kill.
Never in plain english will we ever, and we mean ever trust either again as we live out our measured days. This pandered blather of we all this
or all that is evil nonsense. Those of the silent subjects abhore murdered innocense. We know what, and who, and why the Republic will reap
what is sown from the timeless as before and after we are dust.

http://www.greenchipstocks.com/reports/ ... a-mine.pdf

Evidence from public opinion polls and corporate bond markets shows that FDR’s policies prevented a robust recovery of long-term private investment by significantly reducing investors’ confidence in the durability of private property rights. Not until the New Deal/war economy ended and resources became available for peacetime production did private investment—and the nation’s economic health—fully recover.

Carlyle teamed up with Bain to take $500 million out of another takeover target

Ask Carlyle if paper is the play of the day at the end of the day.
Context: http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 207#p16207
As we understand here stocks are for rent. How hard is it for plain vanilla to get it and survive.
The Carlyle Group Purchases 55% Stake in Commodities Investment Manager Vermillion Asset Management
And they said you are this and that when we seen this Kill switch coming.
If you think blue or red you are an idiot.

I was mindfull to view the life boat we are in to cover all views.
http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/108 ... r?page=0,1
The exercise is to view the total recourse of events we are seeing from the left and the right.
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... oal#p16227

Still trending: As we noted here also Democrats are defecting since the green mask radicals wish to
impose measures that even have awaken liberals to the imposed threat which in fact are real.
Those still functioning in the substitution reactionary technology's of scale are aware and not removed
from the realities of your day either. You simply cannnot genearate waste streams without compliances
and then decimate the base acounts to buy your solutions as you once again deplete your base acounts customers.
Point being pushed into ditches are red and blue realities we face. Some cannot dangle there feet over the side of the life raft
either. The photo below is a inside joke from some outside the box and we need more...

[Reality Check]

All Presidents have been able to direct the regulatory agencies as to how to do their job, Obama is no exception. Reagan and Bush (Sr) did quite a bit of that with the IRS. Lyndon Johnson directed the FBI and Justice Dept. to focus attention on the activities of the KKK and cut back on looking for hidden commies, which caused a good bit of excitement in Congress at the time.

I've not seen or heard of anything out of line in those respects that Obama has done, there's the usual hand wringing but that's normal. What in particular are you talking about that he has done in this regards that is out of line with things done by the last three Presidents before him?

One could re-state your above conclusions another way, if one assumes your facts above to be correct.

One could say all U.S. Presidents, and the modern U.S. Government's executive branch they control, have the innate power to dictate what the entire federal government of the United States does.

The question you raise could then be restated as to what makes Obama different than LBJ, GHWB, Reagan, Clinton, Nixon, Carter and GWB ???

[Reality Check]

Obama is Generation X.

The other Presidents mentioned above were not.

The other President's believed themselves to be restrained by rules of some type.

The rules might have been moral rules they learned in Church or growing up in their family, or the rules of the U.S. Constitution, or the rules of Political consequences, or the rules of social consequences.

But Obama is Generation X. As a group Generation X has learned that the rules do not apply to them.

Generation X, as a group, were latch key kid's abandoned by their parents.

Generation X, as a group, were the product of divorce, growing up in homes that lacked fathers because of divorce, and Mothers because the mothers worked.

Obama's father abandoned him at birth, Obama's mother was a child herself and lived her own childhood, she did not live for Obama.

Obama was not held accountable for the mistakes of his first term by the Media, nor by the voters, nor by his political opponents who controlled the House of Representatives, nor by the U.S. Supreme Court Justices appointed by his political opponents, nor by criminal prosecutors, nor by the leaders of the church communities.

Obama believes, correctly by the way, the rules do not apply to him.

[OLD1953]

The mountains labored and brought forth a mouse.

Passing a budget is totally the power of Congress. Any failure to pass a budget is at the feet of Congress and nobody else. Many Congresses in the past have torn up the President's proposal and started over, but this current intransigence is not exactly unprecedented, but certainly of historical scope.

Uncertainty in federal spending is the cause of a great deal of the current reluctance to commit to any expansion or investment. A great deal of federal money is being sent to the states directly, and without it about half the states would be bankrupt, and the other half would be in trouble.

http://www.governing.com/columns/public ... ities.html

http://www.governing.com/blogs/fedwatch ... -on-states

Understanding that, you understand that even simply cutting federal spending WILL RAISE TAXES AT THE STATE LEVEL. Any cuts in federal spending will be thrown right back in your face by the states who cannot run deficits. Everyone is begging for some pain, and that pain is going to come shortly. Buffet has the right of it, if there are any breaks given to the wealthy during this process, then the wealthy will become the most unpopular group in the country. And I think this is nearly inevitable at this point. This will be a social change the US hasn't seen in my lifetime, and the results will be huge over time. Another big push for special treatment is going to put the cap on this trend. The "welfare rich" is starting to be used to refer to the money thrown at banks and financial institutions, and that's getting terribly unpopular with the public at large.

Budget tricks are common, like this mess, which is actually theft.

http://www.statebudgetsolutions.org/pub ... c-pensions

And so it goes. I expect more cuts than tax increases, though I think the taxes will likely be less painful in the long run, due to the way things are set up, as I said above. We'll know in a month now.

RC, it's not possible to deny the Presidency to all members of a generation. Your objections to Obama apply to a great many GenX citizens.

[Reality Check]

From a financial perspective, one might wish to anticipate what Obama will do as President.

The answer is:

Anything Obama wishes to do, which is limited only by the limits of the power of the entire United States Government, which Obama now controls.

Suggestions in the press, and on this forum, that a politically divided U.S. government, is the primary power that limits what President Obama can do are greatly exaggerated. The power of the other branches of the U.S. government are dependent on following the rules laid out in the constitution, and tradition, and morality. The power of actually spending money, and the power of actually using a sovereign government's monopoly on using violence, to kill and imprison, are solely controlled by Obama.

In a political and historical and generational environment when rules, which are never enforced, do not limit the power of the President, then,

Obama's personal desires and the absolute limits on the power of the entire U.S. federal government are the true primary restraints on Obama.

[Reality Check]

Passing a budget is totally the power of Congress

Even the rules do not say that, and the rules are no longer being enforced anyway.

The rules, that are not being enforced, actually say:

The President and a majority of each of the two houses of Congress must agree on a budget,
or, Two thirds of each house of Congress must agree on a budget, or,
or, the U.S. government will still exist and operate without a budget.

The President can still write checks without a budget.
The President can still borrow money without a budget.
The President can still collect taxes without a budget.
The President can still imprison anyone who does not pay taxes without a budget.
Clinton did all of those things without a budget.

The rules have not applied since President Clinton broke the power of the Congress over the purse strings.

This was again proven when the Tea Party victories put Republicans in control of the U.S. House of Representatives with a mandate to control spending and they were powerless to exercise any power of the purse. Republicans have even less power after the most recent election and they still do not exercise control of the purse strings.

[Reality Check]

Obama's political enemies do not control two thirds of both the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House.
Obama's political enemies do not even control a simple majority in the Senate.

But even if Obama's political enemies controlled a super majority of two thirds of the both the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House,

Even, IF Obama's political enemies could pass a budget over the objection of the President with two thirds majorities in both the Senate and the House.

The budget is just a law, a budget law regarding spending by the executive branch.

According to "OLD1953" the President can and does, have the power to direct the agencies of the U.S. Government's Executive branch on how to interpret laws.

Since the U.S. Government's executive branch does all the spending, and they can interpret the spending rules anyway the President directs ( according to OLD1953 ) then the U.S. Congress's power to pass a budget, even if they had a two thirds majority in both houses of Congress to allow them to pass a budget the President did not agree to, is a power without true power ( according to "OLD1953"'s interpretation of Obama's power to direct the interpretation of laws ).