Financial topics

[aedens]

08/24/2012 As the chart below shows, volatilities tend to trough in August and peak in October into a November election - only to fall once again from two-weeks before to one week after the election. The pattern is clear. TY TD and we posted it also pre election...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oz7oguguIZE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKVnur5D ... re=related

Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. Albert Einstein, as quoted in Viereck, George Sylvester (26 October 1929)

[OLD1953]

I'm fairly certain you guys are going to get a number of shocks from directions you aren't expecting. If Obama doesn't concentrate on reducing the deficit as a major item in his second term, I'll be the one surprised. Right now one of the biggest items causing out of control deficits is the extension of unemployment payments, and that ends December 29 if Congress doesn't take action to extend it again. (Don't allow the media to confuse you on this, individual states move in and out of the extension program as their unemployment figures change, the entire program is what I'm talking about.) This is going to cause a lot of problems if it happens, and I think it is highly likely to happen. This will lead to more bankruptcies and so forth, just for starters.

The nub of the matter is this, the bulk of the news media now is simply directed towards getting money to flow into the corporate coffers. These are the people who are directing the polling companies as to how they want the polls taken. Focus groups are everywhere, and the whole purpose of all this is to manipulate the public. What we get fed from those media is whatever the media moguls believe will line their own pockets and make for a great quarterly report. The whole OMG what happened to the election thing is due to this manipulation, these jokers saw a prime target in fat wallets that didn't want to see Obama in office, so they spun up a fairy tale. I knew it was a fairy tale and said so. And now the story is being spun around some more, again to get more money. The more anguish and angst are created among conservatives, the more cash will flow to fight Obama. The more fear is generated on the left, the more cash will flow to fight the conservatives. It's about making money off fear. I finally understand what Roosevelt meant by "that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror".

And sometimes I know how Cassandra felt, telling people what they don't want to hear and committing the sin of being right.

The exit polls - bah. Agree on a way to slice the data and I'll talk about them. The statements "14% of the people who voted for Obama were Latino" and "80% of Latinos voted for Obama" are neither one untrue, as far as I know, but they certainly have a different impact.

Yes John, it is exciting. The demographics are shifting rapidly now as people age. Either the parties will battle over the center, or we'll see that reach over I mentioned a few days ago. But it's going to be a lot harder to push someone out of the center than to take something away where they aren't expecting it.

[shoshin]

interesting commentary on social conflict and possible loss of "revolutionary spirit" in China...

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... revolution

[OLD1953]

So the CEO of Papa John's has finally spoken up and said he's going to reduce hours to prevent his company from being thrust into beggary by the horrible Obamacare law.

Figured I'd just do the math.

Executive compensation took me about a second to look up, it's about 8.3 million. OFC, the employee salary is ULTIMATE TOP SECRET, so I went here to check it out.

http://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/Papa-Jo ... -E2363.htm

As assumed, it hits the 7$ an hour mark pretty well, with yearly workers reporting 17k per year.

Don't even need a calculator, CEO compensation at Papa John's is equal to about 1.15 million hours of the actual labor force. Yup, they really are feeling a pinch.

Sarcasm aside, this is a worldwide food chain. There are darn few countries they can operate in and not pay for health care in one form or another, certainly nothing in Europe, China, Japan or the old USSR countries, so what's the problem they have in the USA? I will point out the CEO is an early GenX b.1961 and is having the typical reaction that he'll just not play by the rules, laws aren't for him. I'll also point out that he's not in charge of employees at franchises, only at corporate stores. They claim 16,500 employees, but they don't say whether or not this includes franchises. (EDIT:was sleepy, obviously they have more than 4.5 employees per store.)

It's also rather boastfully stated that they do not pay dividends and have no plans to do so in the future.
(EDIT:)
Forbes did a better analysis, I was awake in the middle of the night here when I posted that.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/calebmelby/ ... care-math/
***
So how much would prices go up, under these 50/50 conditions, if they were to fairly reflect the increased cost of doing business onset by Obamacare? Roughly 3.4 to 4.6 cents a pie.
***

Any of us who have worked the resturant biz know that basic ingredient prices cause considerably larger price swings. Plus, they charge 2$ for delivery. A nickel price increase is not TEOTWAWKI. Honestly, I don't believe I have ever sat down and compared pizza prices a single time in my life trying to save a buck. I was already wasting money by ordering food, and I knew that. Once that decision is made, I did not try to find some place cheaper than another one, I either chose the most convienent place or I ordered from the guy who could get it there fastest. Has anyone here ever actually collected menus for the purpose of saving a buck? Personally I have never done that. Coupons yes, hard nosed price comparisons of basic prices, no.

This is not going to be the little annoyance that it would have been two years ago. This is going to be bigger than that. This is exactly equivalent in GD terms to Marie Antionette and the reported statement of "If the masses have no bread, then let them eat cake".

If I was going to make a rule about this kind of thing, it would go something like this:
*It's always a bad idea to beat your employees.
*If you must break this rule, never beat your employees in public
*Never ever beat your employees in public to attempt to punish a third party

Not too businesslike, IMHO.

There are points where I disagree with John, points where we agree, and points where everything is up in the air and neither of us can really decide. But I 100% agree with him that the President is not and seldom is a free actor. The pressure of events is what drives major actions by the President. So look for a moment at what drove the last three Presidents to meddle with health care and insurance.

Fact: Health care was solidly on track to become the biggest item in the US budget, and may already have been, given the costs of health care are spread over every government department. Health care costs paid by government is not just Medicare and Medicaid, there is also VA, health insurance for direct employees, health care for contractors (yup, it's a cost), TriCare, military doctors and medical facilities, retired government elected officials health care - and all that's just off the top of my head, there are plenty I'm leaving out.

Fact: The libertarian notion of "we'll just quit paying" was not going to happen and never would happen. At no level was this kind of thing ever seriously discussed by either party. Ron Paul is not the Republican Party.

Fact: Plans very similar to the one passed were suggested by the "conservative" side. Notably, the Obama plan was from one of the Heritage Foundation leaders, the whole "insurance pool" business is totally a neoconservative idea.

Fact: Romney passed the same kind of plan in Mass. Until he started running in the primaries, it was hailed as a major item on his resume.

Fact: You pay for indigent health care because they get treated at the emergency room. State law in every state I know of says the hospital must treat anyone who shows up, irregardless of payment history. Until the USA is a nation that has no regard for any of the Abrahamic religious traditions, this is not going to change. Be it Jews, Muslims or Christians running the show, they will not change this. Hospitals will recoup those costs in other charges, which will in turn be recouped from the insurance payments, which will come from your pocket. There is no road to free here.

Screaming that you don't like the facts and it should not be that way will not change a single fact.

Given those facts, there was no chance whatsoever the USA would not have some form of Obamacare passed shortly, and it would not matter which party was running things. Clinton meddled in health care, Bush meddled in health care, Obama meddled in health care and if he hadn't and Romney had been elected instead or John McCain, they'd have meddled in health care. This was a forced issue, and nothing else.

Put the politics aside and look at the facts for a minute. This isn't the end of the USA, this isn't the end of freedom, this level of breastbeating has gotten out of hand. While I expect a lot of sounding off about the election, the same identical thing happened to Roosevelt, it's all part of the trend, and it's all going in the expected direction, I haven't had a surprise out of US politics in ages. You've got probably another 20 years of this kind of thing, then the next generation after the Millenials will start pulling in the opposite direction and burning their panties or shaving their heads, whatever they do to get attention.

The rights of business and the wealthy is not and will not be a major concern of government for the next generation. We've got 20 years in which markets aren't going to be happy places. And that's what needs to be on the agenda here.

[aedens]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lV19wkdg ... re=related

We will never fail with these leaders.

[OLD1953]

Aedens my friend, we don't have leaders, we have reactors. If we had leaders, there would be planning.

[aedens]

As a friend conveyed "I was awake in the middle of the night here when I posted that."
Times like these we cannot rest. Betty called tonight and Gordon is not expected
to enjoy our Company much longer. I will ask Betty later to convey a few thoughts
on a good man who served. I am not worthy to do it so will post Her words later...
Sometimes we lose more than words.

[aedens]

Aedens my friend, we don't have leaders, we have reactors. If we had leaders, there would be planning.

More than they can poison the well we are moving forward in some areas...
As we are reminded a narrative is governed by vanity rather than by objectivity for the future
some never seen.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEHWsdim ... re=related glean some notes is the point

[Higgenbotham]

Health care, education, banking and government are net losses to an economy, and they are now all huge parts of the economy, whereas that was not the case in the Roosevelt era. Granted, the productive part of the economy is now more efficient (more accurately, requires less percentage of workforce to produce the output), but the evidence of growing net losses are growing debts, and the debt is a higher fraction of GDP than during the Roosevelt era. Meanwhile, GDP is not sound because it is based on the bloated costs of the above mentioned "industries". Obama has chosen to allow Bernanke to try to hide the growing debt by quarantining part of the US Treasury and mortage debt, hopefully manipulating interest rates lower. That's a temporary fix that has probably seen the end of its useful life.

About 18 months ago Vin and I were observing that based on the Fed flow of funds report, it appeared that there might be enough sources of money to sustain US government borrowing for awhile longer, maybe another year or two. And I was thinking even as little as 3 months ago that might still be the case for another year, and the 30 year US Treasury is still holding near its all time high today. It's a judgement call as always, but I would say that if the US government bond market sees that a large amount of unexpected US government spending will be necessary for whatever reason or there will be a loss of part of the phony GDP, it seems at this point that the bond market could unravel abruptly, shooting interest rates up faster and further than anyone could imagine right now. My take is we're somewhere closer to "Those who can will not, and those who will cannot" than we are to the Roosevelt era. Doesn't matter what I think but if the US government bond market agrees that could be enough to set off a crisis that makes the Great Depression look minor in comparison.

Vin and a, point is I am coming around to the view that the bond bubble is at its peak. You two guys know I have voiced opposition to that idea for a long time here. The Obama reelection, I feel, can contribute to a turning point in the confidence and psychology of the bond market.

[aedens]

As we noted that some missed when we see fins we put our feet back in the life raft.

We conveyed it is not showing up on reports. Also fact is a irreconciliable division is growing. They will have to crucify us
since we are walking away by the millions. We are not stupid and they cannot be trusted, period.
The Nation is too far gone to salvage any form of limited Constitutional government. The majority have now chosen to vote
themselves the largess of the national treasury and to live off the labors of the now minority productive portion of the nation.
Legacy Business is being split off wholesale as the percieved effective change in the air. No, sectors will be and are being chosen
to survive is all that is going on. Ignore at your peril. In the Depression when this ceased later to inflate asset prices the second
wave ensued. The FED seen this also so we will see soon enough. Later noted as when M&A ceased the the market slipped.
We have noted and forumed this so all here are aware who have followed the narrative on the FDR effect.
As a view more right calls than not. When we missed one we understood the dynamic why so we stayed within our
statistical deviation on the lower and upper contol to acount.

Bureaucracy destroys initiative. Herbert
No recovery
Beltway elites and country-club establishment was conveyed. They will never see the light ever again until the pain is so intense
even the actual true liberals get it on both sides to what they both done. They have both kindled a flame beyond description.
Inflated issues so that the commons cannot participate and it is just that simple even on a monetary note.
The majority will do and say what they wish. Fine, so be it. A Hand up for friends, yes, hand outs for any one else, no.

We all know when the epidemic hit the coffers would be depleted and they the wait how long to effectively say we
have a issue on health care decades later? We did not miss the boat nor did torte law insanity's either. People bemoaning
facts as a latency of effect has no place in a public dialog since facts never meant a thing did they?
The majority of idiots for decades calling the kettle black wears thin. Wasting process has not abated just as those
who know the difference going forward. The gulf between us cannot be legislated.

Total U.S. corn production this year is estimated at a six-year low of 10.725 billion bushels, 27 percent less than the U.S. Department of Agriculture's initial estimate last spring. Elk Mound Seed Co in Wisconsin signed contracts to buy roughly 20 percent more corn seed from the 2012 harvest than it did in 2011, in hopes of avoiding a crunch. However, the increased acres under contract were offset by yields that missed expectations by about 20 to 25 percent.

For the uninterested this means procure a line.
Further context: http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... fdr#p14996
FDR had a few things correct on no accidents just intent. Also the drift years some can note as fact on transitional routes
to commericial and commodity induced property rights. Singled out which made sense to what was coming and ignored
after he was gone. I was lucky to know some old time minds to what actually transpired.

We've got 20 years in which markets aren't going to be happy places. The past is the future O