Some may say or infer the new data pipeline is the new erie canal with any inferences found along the way lost to the haste to get it producing.
You can draw numerous conclusions along the way given the branches of knowledge ignored along the way. What we note over time is the avoidance, as in abrogated rights since as we already have directed comment to Cede and Co disposition to book entry acount you may interpet since Americans have billions of dollars worth of stock certificates stashed in safe-deposit boxes, attics, dresser drawers, closets. Last year was lost over $28 billion of them at least according to claims filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. As a person reported they had a generator online but the bankcard would not work and I could not buy food. As we note over time happy accidents appear to feed intent and we have numerous examples forumed. To note the effect I can only term the venturi effect and the after currents called economic history. We viewed our discussion to note spreading the distributive base to light switch markets further. For us country boy's we note to many eating the seed corn attitude and abrogated policy's but reminded x amount of revenue is generated on other soil so why are we targeted as a root issue as we forumed also on just 20 basic reasons alone.
I'm still short on my dime. As am I also since notes are a short we know here. This can be viewed as Fisher noted
the ravages of deflation. So easy the remnant can get it but they do not.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlcFn8Ua ... ure=relmfu never to be seen again
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nU7wGe2 ... re=related review and who defines a proper balance.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKlKGB3Y ... re=related We all know this or you are finished
Financial topics
Re: Financial topics
Last edited by aedens on Wed Nov 28, 2012 12:21 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Re: Financial topics
I have advised several people, buy a safe. Nothing stops a determined burglar, but 99% of robbers are not going to hang around to try to crack through a safe in a random house. Used commercial safes are available as well as gunsafes. Investigate what a safe is actually made of, there are some cheap junk things that can be penetrated in minutes, others would take forever. If you keep papers in it, it needs to be fireproof - and there are different degrees of "fireproof". Nothing most of us can actually afford is truly fireproof. I'd keep papers in a bank safety deposit box, emergency cash at home, and get a rider on the homeowners policy. If things cave in, you aren't leaving the house much in any event.
Protecting what you have is as important as gathering it in the first place, and it's odd how people will skimp on that.
A couple of decades ago, a friend told me he couldn't get home from work the day before because of a robbery. The thieves had stolen all the silver coins they could throw into a cardboard box and run with it - probably forty lbs worth or so, they left a trail to their vehicle as the box was leaking. So the police had required his neighbor to take inventory of everything in the house. It added up to about three million dollars total as nearly as I could estimate from his description, with cash (200K+ by actual count) with big boxes of silver and gold coins (counted and thats how I estimated the value) and an enormous amount of jewelry. There wasn't a safe in the place, and the cops pretty much ordered the neighbor to take the whole to a bank and rent large safe deposit boxes to store his stash. Cops cordoned off the entire neighborhood until an armored car could get there and transfer the stuff. This was in an itty bitty river town in Kentucky, where you'd swear nobody had any real money.
It may be the bullet has been dodged for a while, the unofficial problem bank list keeps getting smaller. http://cr4re.com/PBL11172012.html If that trend continues, then it is possible the FED will cut the cord in the near future. That and the results from the fiscal cliff meetings may show the US with some sunnier days in the near term. Europe OTOH, just keeps looking worse and worse. Any guesses as to what happens if the US floats while the EURO sinks? Can the US keep going with the EURO in the trash heap? Fuel prices would decline as would some other things. Trade numbers:
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0012.html
The problem is that we've still not rid ourselves of the systemic weaknesses that have to be abolished if we are to have any kind of stability. It seems likely to me that Europe will drag the world into the pit as it goes down.
Protecting what you have is as important as gathering it in the first place, and it's odd how people will skimp on that.
A couple of decades ago, a friend told me he couldn't get home from work the day before because of a robbery. The thieves had stolen all the silver coins they could throw into a cardboard box and run with it - probably forty lbs worth or so, they left a trail to their vehicle as the box was leaking. So the police had required his neighbor to take inventory of everything in the house. It added up to about three million dollars total as nearly as I could estimate from his description, with cash (200K+ by actual count) with big boxes of silver and gold coins (counted and thats how I estimated the value) and an enormous amount of jewelry. There wasn't a safe in the place, and the cops pretty much ordered the neighbor to take the whole to a bank and rent large safe deposit boxes to store his stash. Cops cordoned off the entire neighborhood until an armored car could get there and transfer the stuff. This was in an itty bitty river town in Kentucky, where you'd swear nobody had any real money.
It may be the bullet has been dodged for a while, the unofficial problem bank list keeps getting smaller. http://cr4re.com/PBL11172012.html If that trend continues, then it is possible the FED will cut the cord in the near future. That and the results from the fiscal cliff meetings may show the US with some sunnier days in the near term. Europe OTOH, just keeps looking worse and worse. Any guesses as to what happens if the US floats while the EURO sinks? Can the US keep going with the EURO in the trash heap? Fuel prices would decline as would some other things. Trade numbers:
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0012.html
The problem is that we've still not rid ourselves of the systemic weaknesses that have to be abolished if we are to have any kind of stability. It seems likely to me that Europe will drag the world into the pit as it goes down.
Re: Financial topics
http://duckduckgo.com/?q=Thomas+Andrews+Drake The day the republicans died
The difference between the intelligent person and a conditioned person boasting 'vanity intelligence' is that the genuinely
intelligent person has the capacity to look at the facts and admit when when they're wrong and this is called learning.
The difference between the intelligent person and a conditioned person boasting 'vanity intelligence' is that the genuinely
intelligent person has the capacity to look at the facts and admit when when they're wrong and this is called learning.
Last edited by aedens on Sat Dec 01, 2012 7:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Financial topics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQf9JGxX-Xc
Ellsberg Paradox represents a class of choice situations in which an uncertainty is weighed against a known probability.
The proposed Basel III regulatory capital requirements are an immense and unnecessary burden that will actually threaten the existence of banks with under $1billion in assets. These new regulations will further drive consolidation into a few bigger banks. Some on Wall Street, like mergers and acquisitions expert John Slater, predict that Basel III’s compliance costs will lead to a merger boom, and that in the next 3-5 years 20-30 percent of all banks will merge, further consolidating wealth in fewer and fewer hands. That is the object – world bank/economic and hence political control by a handful of unelected, unaccountable, international bankers beholden to no one, many of whom have ethics only Machiavelli could admire.
Recall Keynes's erroneous prediction that within a century people's material wants would be satiated. When that happened, the demand for capital (to finance consumption) would plummet and rentiers (people who live on income from passive investments, such as stocks or bonds, and thus are hoarders) would be wiped out, a prospect that delighted Keynes, who looked forward to the euthanasia of the rentier.
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 2200#p4455
We hold under 42 months in personal view the demise of our current view.
Separate thread: Morsi stain of intent figures. http://www.prophetofdoom.net/Islamic_Cl ... n_SS.Islam
I never had any doubt on these kind and the trail of shattered lives I have watched for countless decades.
This ancient evil is burned into our family's history of this evil mindset .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSPFnrr ... re=related
Ellsberg Paradox represents a class of choice situations in which an uncertainty is weighed against a known probability.
The proposed Basel III regulatory capital requirements are an immense and unnecessary burden that will actually threaten the existence of banks with under $1billion in assets. These new regulations will further drive consolidation into a few bigger banks. Some on Wall Street, like mergers and acquisitions expert John Slater, predict that Basel III’s compliance costs will lead to a merger boom, and that in the next 3-5 years 20-30 percent of all banks will merge, further consolidating wealth in fewer and fewer hands. That is the object – world bank/economic and hence political control by a handful of unelected, unaccountable, international bankers beholden to no one, many of whom have ethics only Machiavelli could admire.
Recall Keynes's erroneous prediction that within a century people's material wants would be satiated. When that happened, the demand for capital (to finance consumption) would plummet and rentiers (people who live on income from passive investments, such as stocks or bonds, and thus are hoarders) would be wiped out, a prospect that delighted Keynes, who looked forward to the euthanasia of the rentier.
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 2200#p4455
We hold under 42 months in personal view the demise of our current view.
Separate thread: Morsi stain of intent figures. http://www.prophetofdoom.net/Islamic_Cl ... n_SS.Islam
I never had any doubt on these kind and the trail of shattered lives I have watched for countless decades.
This ancient evil is burned into our family's history of this evil mindset .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSPFnrr ... re=related
Last edited by aedens on Sat Dec 01, 2012 7:19 am, edited 4 times in total.
Re: Financial topics
The ability to predict outcomes in a complex system rests on a “sensitive dependence on initial conditions,” meaning an awareness of the presence
and strength of every factor that could affect the result. In other words, our efforts to describe or to prescribe those patterns of regularity we define
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... c_OvIPtUas “order” are limited by complexity itself.
http://blogs.r.ftdata.co.uk/brusselsblo ... e_MoU2.pdf
and strength of every factor that could affect the result. In other words, our efforts to describe or to prescribe those patterns of regularity we define
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... c_OvIPtUas “order” are limited by complexity itself.
http://blogs.r.ftdata.co.uk/brusselsblo ... e_MoU2.pdf
Last edited by aedens on Sat Dec 01, 2012 7:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Financial topics
A shape of things to come?
"Fattest Finger Ever Slams Stockholm Stock Exchange With $70 Trillion Buy Order"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-2 ... -buy-order
from comments ---
CPL
Problem with letting any digital life operate without simulus it starts to run it's own numbers to match the environment given. So obviously somewhere the Algo found a piece of information and acted on it. University of Arizona had a study to the effect, without researcher inputs the bots went apeshit and started designing their own controls.
Considering the morons that bought the Algo/HFT systems never stopped to think once about the term "life", these bot or built creatures are designed to learn and recompile themselves to survive. Their food is real data. So somewhere there really is 460 trillion in exposure somewhere.
Most agencies that use AI fail to set security boundries to their bots. The executives are more throughly managed by ACL's and given less information and access to information than a bot is given. A bot will always reflect it's known reality with the information is finds and acts on.
http://ai.arizona.edu/research/dl/
"Fattest Finger Ever Slams Stockholm Stock Exchange With $70 Trillion Buy Order"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-2 ... -buy-order
from comments ---
CPL
Problem with letting any digital life operate without simulus it starts to run it's own numbers to match the environment given. So obviously somewhere the Algo found a piece of information and acted on it. University of Arizona had a study to the effect, without researcher inputs the bots went apeshit and started designing their own controls.
Considering the morons that bought the Algo/HFT systems never stopped to think once about the term "life", these bot or built creatures are designed to learn and recompile themselves to survive. Their food is real data. So somewhere there really is 460 trillion in exposure somewhere.
Most agencies that use AI fail to set security boundries to their bots. The executives are more throughly managed by ACL's and given less information and access to information than a bot is given. A bot will always reflect it's known reality with the information is finds and acts on.
http://ai.arizona.edu/research/dl/
Re: Financial topics
That's why I keep on saying my crystal ball is broken, in many different items of interest there are simply too many factors to determine an outcome with any degree of meaning. A count with limits of +- 40 trillion is acceptable in astronomy, in some circumstances, but not in most applications relevant to daily life on this planet.
http://news.discovery.com/space/comets- ... 21130.html
The discreet screen between the public and the machinations behind the screen is beginning to show tatters. Re my complaints about doctors preventing the creation of new doctors and artificial shortages:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/01/busin ... wanted=all
Seems straightforward enough, create a shortage, demand higher prices, yell about government interference when the DA asks questions about collusion and monopolies and restraint of trade. A very common business plan in the medical profession.
http://news.discovery.com/space/comets- ... 21130.html
The discreet screen between the public and the machinations behind the screen is beginning to show tatters. Re my complaints about doctors preventing the creation of new doctors and artificial shortages:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/01/busin ... wanted=all
Seems straightforward enough, create a shortage, demand higher prices, yell about government interference when the DA asks questions about collusion and monopolies and restraint of trade. A very common business plan in the medical profession.
-
Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7990
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformati ... septvt.pdf
http://prod.semi.org/en/sites/semi.org/ ... 033815.pdf
http://www.restaurant.org/pressroom/pre ... e/?ID=2349
http://www.manheim.com/products/consulting
The above 4 links give what in my opinion is some of the best unbiased leading information available about the general state of the US economy. I used to post a diesel fuel usage based trucking index, but it has been discontinued; http://www.ceridianindex.com/index.php
Starting with the first link, September 2012 traffic volume was down in 44 states compared with a year ago, and down 1.5% nationally. September 2011 traffic volume was relatively weak after the debt downgrade panic that occurred in August 2011. Also, page 10 shows that traffic volume on urban highways was the lowest in 3 years for any month between March and December. Going to the second link, with both semiconductor equipment bookings and billings under $1 billion last month, and the ratio at 0.75, that is a solid indicator high tech is slumping. The third and fourth links have charts at the bottom of the data. The Restaurant Performance Index looks close to signalling recession; my read would be without further increases in Central Bank intervention a fall under 99 would be a signal. Finally, the Mannheim Used Vehicle Index has been falling for several months and the chart at the bottom of the page shows similar activity to the 2006/2007 period before the recession hit.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO
While this ratio has not turned down, it has not been able to rise much either, in spite of the huge drop during the recession. Normally, the employment to population ratio rises a lot after a recession ends.
http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html
The gasoline demand numbers gave a false signal earlier in the year, when these numbers fell to multi year lows without a corresponding drop in traffic volume. Now that traffic volume is at lower levels year on year, the reported gasoline numbers are not confirming. I've found the traffic volume numbers to be accurate over time and, as posted maybe a year back, traffic volume correlates about 95% with GDP.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-3 ... ahead.html
He says something to the effect that when the economy drops off the cliff this time there will be little warning, and I agree.
http://home.comcast.net/~RoyAshworth/Mu ... Levels.htm
I haven't posted this link before so far as I can recall. It gives very powerful confirmation of many things John has stated on this site:
1. There was a generational change in financial behavior after 1995, and risk taking increased. The chart confirms this by showing that after 1995, mutual fund cash levels dropped to less than 7% and have never returned to 7%, even during the panics. Before 1995, mutual fund cash levels were over 7% for decades.
2. Stocks are in a bubble and when they revert to the mean, the Dow will fall to very low levels. The chart would seem to imply that if mutual fund cash levels once again exceed 7%, as is normal, that stocks will fall below their 2009 lows.
3. Stocks are still in a bubble, despite insistence by CNBC guests that PEs are reasonable and the worst is over. Mutual fund cash levels dropped to even lower levels in the past 2 years than they reached at the peaks of the 2000 and 2007 bubbles.
http://prod.semi.org/en/sites/semi.org/ ... 033815.pdf
http://www.restaurant.org/pressroom/pre ... e/?ID=2349
http://www.manheim.com/products/consulting
The above 4 links give what in my opinion is some of the best unbiased leading information available about the general state of the US economy. I used to post a diesel fuel usage based trucking index, but it has been discontinued; http://www.ceridianindex.com/index.php
Starting with the first link, September 2012 traffic volume was down in 44 states compared with a year ago, and down 1.5% nationally. September 2011 traffic volume was relatively weak after the debt downgrade panic that occurred in August 2011. Also, page 10 shows that traffic volume on urban highways was the lowest in 3 years for any month between March and December. Going to the second link, with both semiconductor equipment bookings and billings under $1 billion last month, and the ratio at 0.75, that is a solid indicator high tech is slumping. The third and fourth links have charts at the bottom of the data. The Restaurant Performance Index looks close to signalling recession; my read would be without further increases in Central Bank intervention a fall under 99 would be a signal. Finally, the Mannheim Used Vehicle Index has been falling for several months and the chart at the bottom of the page shows similar activity to the 2006/2007 period before the recession hit.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO
While this ratio has not turned down, it has not been able to rise much either, in spite of the huge drop during the recession. Normally, the employment to population ratio rises a lot after a recession ends.
http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html
The gasoline demand numbers gave a false signal earlier in the year, when these numbers fell to multi year lows without a corresponding drop in traffic volume. Now that traffic volume is at lower levels year on year, the reported gasoline numbers are not confirming. I've found the traffic volume numbers to be accurate over time and, as posted maybe a year back, traffic volume correlates about 95% with GDP.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-3 ... ahead.html
He says something to the effect that when the economy drops off the cliff this time there will be little warning, and I agree.
http://home.comcast.net/~RoyAshworth/Mu ... Levels.htm
I haven't posted this link before so far as I can recall. It gives very powerful confirmation of many things John has stated on this site:
1. There was a generational change in financial behavior after 1995, and risk taking increased. The chart confirms this by showing that after 1995, mutual fund cash levels dropped to less than 7% and have never returned to 7%, even during the panics. Before 1995, mutual fund cash levels were over 7% for decades.
2. Stocks are in a bubble and when they revert to the mean, the Dow will fall to very low levels. The chart would seem to imply that if mutual fund cash levels once again exceed 7%, as is normal, that stocks will fall below their 2009 lows.
3. Stocks are still in a bubble, despite insistence by CNBC guests that PEs are reasonable and the worst is over. Mutual fund cash levels dropped to even lower levels in the past 2 years than they reached at the peaks of the 2000 and 2007 bubbles.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
-
Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7990
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
http://home.comcast.net/~RoyAshworth/Ma ... Timing.htm
http://home.comcast.net/~RoyAshworth/Do ... 00_Yrs.htm
The first link may be timely. The second link shows his opinion of mean reversion potential.
I just happen to think a little differently because the assumption that you can debase your way to higher lows of 8000 in 2016 assumes the profit potential of the economy is intact and can be self-correcting with ongoing debasement. I think in the current case ongoing debasement will have the result of collapsing the economy by disconnecting the self-correcting mechanisms.
http://home.comcast.net/~RoyAshworth/Do ... 00_Yrs.htm
The first link may be timely. The second link shows his opinion of mean reversion potential.
I just happen to think a little differently because the assumption that you can debase your way to higher lows of 8000 in 2016 assumes the profit potential of the economy is intact and can be self-correcting with ongoing debasement. I think in the current case ongoing debasement will have the result of collapsing the economy by disconnecting the self-correcting mechanisms.
Last edited by Higgenbotham on Sat Dec 01, 2012 8:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
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