Financial topics

[aedens]

Never wanted the office but said if enough do that is another thing. Cleaned house and services rebid.

[Higgenbotham]

I'll post some examples of the inverse of the historical record as time permits. I'm noticing many, many important long term inversions at this time. Some go all the way back to the fall of the Roman Empire but of course those are only good within a few years. I have some decades long cycle inversions coming up soon that appear they may hit to the exact day. An example of one that has (so far) follows.

After the 1929 bubble, the stock market made a Great Depression low on July 8, 1932.

70 years, 3 months and 1 day later, after the 2000 Internet bubble, the stock market made a low on October 9, 2002.

Almost 10 years after the Great Depression low, the stock market made its low for the 1940s decade on June 13, 1942.

After exactly the same amount of time elapsed to the day, that being 70 years, 3 months and 1 day after the 1942 low, the major US indices reached their highest points since the 2009 low on September 14, 2012. On a closing basis, the September 14, 2012 high has not been exceeded since.

Enough data has come in to continue this theme from a couple months back.

The stock market struck the following lows 25 years apart:

August 9, 1982
October 23, 1957
July 8, 1932

All of these lows were very important lows that the stock market never returned to.

The average of these 3 dates is August 25, 1957.

25, 50, and 75 years after these dates, the stock market inverted into a high, double topping on July 19 and October 11, 2007.

The average of these 2 dates is August 30, 2007.

Therefore, these sets of lows and highs are 50 years and 5 days apart.

The stock market struck the following lows 25 years apart:

October 20, 1987 (1987 crash low)
October 24, 1962 (Cuban missile crisis low)
November 23, 1937 (1937 panic low)

While all of these lows were significant, they were not as significant as the prior group of lows listed. For example, November 23, 1937 was the panic low and the low of the year 1937, but the stock market made a lower low in March of 1938.

The average of these 3 dates is November 2, 1962.

25, 50, and 75 years after these dates, the stock market inverted into a high, double topping on September 14 and December 18, 2012.

The average of these 2 dates is November 1, 2012.

Therefore, these sets of lows and highs are 50 years less 1 day apart.

I would also add that, relative to the first set of dates, the low of the 1857 panic was October 13, 1857. Therefore, the low of the 1857 panic, a low that was also never returned to, is 150 years less 2 days from the October 11, 2007 high, a high which has now held for 5 years.

Note 1: I calculated the averages of the dates in my head and they may be off for that reason.
Note 2: Had the high of last week hit on the Mayan date, I believe the sets of lows and highs would have averaged exactly 50 years apart to the day.

[aedens]

Good stuff to ponder. I am working some points as conveyed early feb peak. Drift down to fall and mapping cone effects. Good thing its our money ; of course as John indicates Assad may be a event and it moves along. As we mapped here as many also a long time ago the Amos effect which includes Damascus being fullfilled as told. Brick by brick, stone by stone it is before our very eyes. I read even Moscow gets it now on this note. We had to smile somewhat that when what are these souls going to do when they wake up from the wreck they created with there face on fire here at home and there. We noted since we are here such a short time its his department anyway since only three issues are the facts anyways as Mr. Franklin properly conveyed. As noted when the blink, blink stuff abates I am still 80:20 from .33:33:33 We tire from avarice and affronts to our regard to compass issues. Pity wears thin on coveted thinking that we should regard opinions contrary to the natural economic of nature. What we discussed as we covered here was the red togas hubris and running riot on the backs of us. Now that they own it the third point on relationship to affairs it breaks it all down is what we consider relavent since they will not check the rabidity of there operatives and that is just what they are since they will not or cannot be value added. As now as stone cold fact and clay tablets the three mechanisms as constants of capital, labor, and the consumer. They have three differentials of acountablity. It is obvious to even a casual conversation they are firmly in control for welfare economics implosion we noted and they truly own it. We discussed the democrats are the one who decimated the countess untold in the transportation sectors with bobby and tip in control and never do they, or will they own up to the countless lives lost later from the dropping standards to licenses. Untold carnage the pressitutes would not touch. The consumer base was lambs to slaughter on just that effect alone with the sacred democrats deregulations. I do not know when as we say but its coming and they damn well can not avoid the cold reality. Never easy and as we note its to damn late now many convey. Day one we captured he would bent the trend. Ok we are still waiting on that one with the current gosplan.

It is characteristic of current political thinking as Mises conveyed to welcome every suggestion which aims at enlarging the influence of government. Inflation can be pursued only so long as the public still does not believe it will continue. Once the people generally realize that the inflation will be continued on and on and that the value of the monetary unit will decline more and more, then the fate of the money is sealed. Only the belief, that the inflation will come to a stop, maintains the value of the notes. If the practice persists of covering government deficits with the issue of notes, then the day will come without fail, sooner or later, when the monetary systems of those nations pursuing this course will break down completely. The purchasing power of the monetary unit will decline more and more, until finally it disappears completely. The most serious dangers for American freedom and the American way of life do not come from without. What is needed to prevent any further credit expansion is to place the banking business under the general rules of commercial and civil laws compelling every individual and firm to fulfill all obligations in full compliance with the terms of the contract. If you have to convince a group of people who are not directly dependent on a solution of a problem, you will never succeed. Only to bureaucrats can the idea occur that establishing new offices, promulgating new decrees, and increasing the number of government employees alone can be described as positive and beneficial measures. The issue is always the same: the government or the market. There is no third solution. As a result, while attempts to clean up and recapitalize the US and European financial systems make sense, and are needed to support any eventual recovery, this will not immediately stop the process of financial contraction and economic decline. Fiscal stimulus similarly can soften the blow of the recession but will not directly address the underlying problems, and many countries are constrained by high debt levels.
Tue Mar 24, 2009
Failure to clarify by the Democrats own liberal agenda which is fact, and the bloggers dangerous ability to see ahead of the curve in my opinion to date.
Stated was bend the curve:
Goal: Regulatory Process
No Global currency as such:
Stiff Conditions:
Long term growth:
Derivatives are insurance contracts OTC so what is A. Taxpayer regard’s to currency puts.
And given that I respect the office of the President we looked to reason:
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=27&p=1922&hilit=aedens#p1922
By spring Obama's campaign promises will not produce miracles. He also cited the "vulnerable political set up," "lack of unified laws," and "divisions among the elite," which becomes clear in these crisis conditions.
Benjamin Disraeli, then a young novelist, If you establish a democracy, you must in due time reap the fruits of democracy. You will in due season have great impatience of the public burdens, combined in due season with great increase of public expenditure. You will in due season have wars entered into from passion and not from reason; and you will in due season submit to peace ignominiously sought and ignominiously obtained, which will diminish your authority and perhaps endanger your independence.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-2 ... -liberties
Locally we have done our duty under duress and we understand clearly we are runnin out of time.

[Higgenbotham]

a, I've been aware of these cycles for years but, let's face it, I never thought they could bring it back up to these dates and levels after the bubble burst and it got exposed to the public. I also have 2 fractals I created in 2004 that go back 5-6 centuries. One said the top could be near 2006 and the other near 2012. I never seriously considered it could be both. On the basis of these fractals, these would be multi decade or multi century highs.

I do think here that Bernanke is hitting the wall of diminishing and negative immediate returns. The long term returns should be all negative and there may be some of that already weighing too.

I also note the silver price and the ratio of gold to silver last week. At what seems to be a similar juncture back in 2007, silver prices continued to rise.

Last note, I've lost 62% of the gains made from the October high to the November low. The ferocity of these retraces astounds me.

[aedens]

The avarice indiced algo and latency of effect is my fulcrum thought and very early we conveyed the landscape here. We did not miss this aspect here.
The issuance of paper is the only regard they understand to fund a model of trajectory to be brief. When a slipstream "flash crash" is hit after february as I noted in itself the effect will be noted, and we must be serious to note that some are years ahead of these affairs. If I lose a hand or a eye as the book notes I may be injured but at what cost do they consider themselves to be in going forward. The office makes a decision and two thirds to modify a process.
Trutly i believe the public to be so far removed from reality they have no idea what is actually going on anyway. The futures flash noted the other day was
missed by a vast majority have no clue what it even was. We are a more than few dots ahead of some things and i was reminded dates are for eating and
estimating how much you do not know. Oh well I married my date so yea these times are indeed time to watch the nature of these parasites drain the
very essence of what they are on each other. The FEDS are finished and they have one thought. Slow, then all at once. look how Greece is being mangled.
I will direct the paper on what is up over there. It is the absolute "vampire state" as we noted the book long ago here going on there. All assets eliminated to the northern vampires who wish to torture them to compliance. We are not naive here and the course is a mental bent of evil that is rising and noted in some scholarly circles already to the net long term issue.

http://www.tovima.gr/files/1/2012/12/14 ... 122012.pdf <-------- abandone all hope we own you and your ox cart

[Reality Check]

I agree an end to the Free Lunch must come.

But it will come for some before others.

The government elites and the non-government elites who feed them ( feed the government elites ) power, money and praise, may be able to keep their free lunch going a few more years ( decades ?). Hell, they probably believe they can keep it going forever. After all, they know they are entitled to it.

The Federal Government has a lot of power that has not yet been fully used yet.

The power to tax, at one point the highest Marginal Federal Income Tax Rate in the United States was over 90% ( if my memory serves).

The power to confiscate, Gold was confiscated and guns can be confiscated.

The power to compel, when you can force citizens with money to choose to either buy a product or pay an amount in tax that is equivalent to the gross price of the product, as Chief Justice Roberts says Congress can always do, then there are very few limits left on the Federal Government.

The FED is not the only player in this game.

There is still wealth in the small towns and rural states and frugal households of the United States that can be hollowed out.

[aedens]

Slow at first then all at once. They have enough village idiots to torture for decades so slow then all at once will be what we measure.
We are watching the burn rate and the smart money is already moved with nested capital interests and investments. We have noted this effect before
here on they ask x amount to relocate for y reason on z political calculas. Think eagles already gone theme song. Captial will utilize which
cardinal action of men? To covet, since capital is tolerated by state for what exclusive elusive merit?
These ambitious men were not naive; they were overconfident about their ability to manipulate. Culture change is inclusive to attributes
and enumerated facts that swallow the common man whole devoid of knowlewdge not from a defect of the nature but design.

[Higgenbotham]

We are a more than few dots ahead of some things and i was reminded dates are for eating and estimating how much you do not know.

My philosophy on that is find one that works and if it works don't argue with it. Cycle dates or otherwise, but it can't be the only factor to observe. Another thing I'm attuned to at this time is sentiment, forum and otherwise. There was a time here when the bears dominated the discussion on this forum and the debate was Dow 1000 or Dow 3000. Those folks have vacated the board. Prices convince by definition. The peak activity in the inflation thread occurred the week silver topped and all the posts moved from here over to there for 7 days. I forgot to note that ISEE reached its 2007 high of 192 on October 29, 2 days ahead of the rebound high. Similarly, ISEE reached 208 on December 17 and so far the following day's high has held. For now, I won't argue with that because sentiment can overule other factors, but combined with a good long term date, I'll keep it until proven otherwise.

[aedens]

We are a more than few dots ahead of some things and i was reminded dates are for eating and estimating how much you do not know.

My philosophy on that is find one that works and if it works don't argue with it. Cycle dates or otherwise, but it can't be the only factor to observe. Another thing I'm attuned to at this time is sentiment, forum and otherwise. There was a time here when the bears dominated the discussion on this forum and the debate was Dow 1000 or Dow 3000. Those folks have vacated the board. Prices convince by definition. The peak activity in the inflation thread occurred the week silver topped and all the posts moved from here over to there for 7 days. I forgot to note that ISEE reached its 2007 high of 192 on October 29, 2 days ahead of the rebound high. Similarly, ISEE reached 208 on December 17 and so far the following day's high has held. For now, I won't argue with that because sentiment can overule other factors, but combined with a good long term date, I'll keep it until proven otherwise.

I agree on the if it works human algo effect but they use us a snacks for there pleasure now or plain kill switches for some to enamored in there network. Those ventures are already progessing under documents we have provided given ante view connections. The study captured in the forums provided is 1378 clusters of innovated supply chain in context to contractual and property rights. Under that guise there shock analysis from the Fed rings true on that bell alone and the mechanism for dislocation. We did mentioned orphan structures from funds that under scrutiny the statists are obligated for public dissemination. I now resemble that comment second quarter H. We are talking four deep interlineated contructs and the appearance of fractal events are not correlation but infered causation to events in definition.

[Higgenbotham]

I agree on the if it works human algo effect but they use us a snacks for there pleasure now or plain kill switches for some to enamored in there network. Those ventures are already progessing under documents we have provided given ante view connections. The study captured in the forums provided is 1378 clusters of innovated supply chain in context to contractual and property rights. Under that guise there shock analysis from the Fed rings true on that bell alone and the mechanism for dislocation. We did mentioned orphan structures from funds that under scrutiny the statists are obligated for public dissemination. I now resemble that comment second quarter H. We are talking four deep interlineated contructs and the appearance of fractal events are not correlation but infered causation to events in definition.

I typically see the market get driven down 1-3 days after the bullishness gets lopsided, where ISEE is a measure, if the market is moving into a bear trend. If not, the sentiment can stay lopsided for some time as prices move higher. That can also be seen at the September 14 ISEE peak, which is near the December 17 peak, and both are the highest points in the past year, similar to the October 8 and 29 points in 2007. Another interesting thing to note is the time delay comparison of 2-3 days in 2007 for sentiment to evaporate versus 0-1 days in 2012, along with the higher ISEE numbers in 2012 versus 2007. This may differentiate to the beginning of a wave 1 versus the beginning of a wave 3 in Elliott definitions. Near as I can tell, the fractal events show that the inevitable can be altered to within a 3 year time window by human action and that is all the wiggle room that nature makes available. If the collapse of the Bardi came early in that timeline, it would be my guess that the latest a banking collapse can be held off is 2014.