8-Jan-13 World View -- China quadruples rice imports

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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8-Jan-13 World View -- China quadruples rice imports

Post by John »

8-Jan-13 World View -- China quadruples rice imports for no apparent reason


Obamacare causes health insurance rates to surge

** 8-Jan-13 World View -- China quadruples rice imports for no apparent reason
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 08#e130108




Contents:
China quadruples rice imports for no apparent reason
Obamacare causes health insurance rates to surge
2013 versus 1913, the year before the start of the Great War


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, rice, Obamacare,
Aetna, Richard Nixon, wage-price controls,
Great Leap Forward, Mao Zedong, World War I
Reality Check
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Re: 8-Jan-13 World View -- China quadruples rice imports

Post by Reality Check »

John wrote:United Nations agricultural experts are reporting confusion, after figures show that China imported 2.6 million tons of rice in 2012, substantially more than a four-fold increase over the 575,000 tons imported in 2011. The confusion stems from the fact that there is no obvious reason for vastly increased imports, since there has been no rice shortage in China. The speculation is that Chinese importers are taking advantage of low international prices, but all that means is that China's own vast supplies of domestically grown rice are being stockpiled. Why would China suddenly be stockpiling millions of tons of rice for no apparent reason? Perhaps it's related to China's aggressive military buildup and war preparations in the Pacific and in central Asia.
This is interesting.

China's conventional military strategic superiority to the degree it has any, is in it's manufacturing capacity and it's population.

Both must be fed. War Industry requires Copper, Aluminum and Iron. Workers and soldiers require food.

Immediately after the Financial Crisis hit China went on a multi-year buying spree of copper while commodity prices were low. At the time there was speculation that China was trying to turn copper into a monetary reserve such a the United States did with Gold during the Great Depression.

I am not aware of a similar buying spree with regard to Aluminum and Iron.

To ramp up military production of ships and airplanes to world record production levels and maintain production at those levels for years will require huge stock piles of commodities like Iron, Copper and Aluminum.

I am not sure China has stock piled those levels of Iron, Copper and Aluminum.

In a country where foreign currency reserves are a closely guarded state secret it might be impossible to know how much stock piling has gone on over the past six years.

But it would seem perishable food stocks would be something you wait until the end to stock up on.
Last edited by Reality Check on Tue Jan 08, 2013 2:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reality Check
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Re: 8-Jan-13 World View -- China quadruples rice imports

Post by Reality Check »

On the opposite side of these indicators China has been spending Billions upon Billions of U.S. dollars buying natural resource companies in North America, South America, Africa and Australia. All of these resouces might become unavailale during a Crisis War where China did not have control of the Seas outside the Western Pacific.
Reality Check
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Re: 8-Jan-13 World View -- China quadruples rice imports

Post by Reality Check »

The interesting thing about the Rice Import story is that the imports of rice were a side effect of the Chinese Government Policy to provide price supports to Chinese farmers to encourage additional rice plantings for next year.

The government also allowed processors to import cheaper foreign rice which would have a secondary effect, intended or not, to leave more home grown rice in storage for carry over to next year.

At the expense of spending Chinese Government Cash this would have four effects:

1. Cheaper rice to consumers this year.
2. More rice in storage.
3. More rice harvested next year.
4. Higher prices to farmers this year.

All things a government would want if anticipating a war that might cut off imports. Most imports have been from Thailand historically, but more recently ( 2012, 2013 ) from Vietnam.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-1 ... es-1-.html
Trevor
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Re: 8-Jan-13 World View -- China quadruples rice imports

Post by Trevor »

I'm wondering: have the Chinese followed through on their threat to seize neutral ships in the South China Sea? It doesn't appear to be the case and I was wondering if they're still slightly hesitant to take that step or if their neighbors are just avoiding what China has essentially annexed.
solomani
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Re: 8-Jan-13 World View -- China quadruples rice imports

Post by solomani »

Trevor, not I am aware of. They have also offered an olive branch to the Philippines.
John
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Re: 8-Jan-13 World View -- China quadruples rice imports

Post by John »

Trevor, they said they would do it in 2013, and it's still pretty early in 2013.

A web site reader has reminded me that China is also hoarding rare
earth minerals.
solomani
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Re: 8-Jan-13 World View -- China quadruples rice imports

Post by solomani »

John wrote:Heaven knows that I'm not a paranoid person, but it was just three days ago that I reported that Australians are running short of powdered milk formula because Chinese tourists are visiting Australia, buying large quantities of the formula in bulk, and taking it back to China. There's no apparent reason for that, either.
There is a reason actually. HK is also out of stock and constantly out of stock as well. Mainlanders dont trust any Chinese made or sold brand of baby powder so they consistently ransack HK for it. This was due to the baby powder poison fiasco last year (?). And I assume some industrious mainlanders/Honkies felt it was profitable enough to go to Australia and empty Sydney stores to resell at a premium on the gray market in China proper or even in HK.
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