9-Jan-13 World View -- New fighting in Kashmir

[John]

9-Jan-13 World View -- New fighting between India and Pakistan in Kashmir

Three scenarios for an accidental South China Sea war

** 9-Jan-13 World View -- New fighting between India and Pakistan in Kashmir
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 09#e130109



Contents:
New fighting between India and Pakistan in Kashmir
Switzerland's Wegelin bank to close after U.S. indictment
Three scenarios for an accidental South China Sea war


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Switzerland, Wegelin & Co.,
Credit Suisse, HSBC Holdings, China, South China Sea,
Philippines, Vietnam, India, Pakistan, Kashmir,
Line of Control

[Reality Check]

9-Jan-13 World View

Three scenarios for an accidental South China Sea war
...

Scenario Number Two ( 2 )

Under contract from the Philippines, a UK-based energy firm plans to start drilling for gas in Reed Bank this year. Reed Bank is clearly in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone (EEZ), but China has harassed and threatened Philippine surveillance ships in Reed Bank in the past. If there's a conflict between China and the Philippines, the U.S. could be drawn in because of a 1951 mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, which says:

"Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific Area on either of the Parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes."

China could use police powers and violence, or the threat of violence, to prevent such commercial drilling, if China chose to.

China or the Philippines or both could use such a use of violence, or threat of violence, by China to start a war between China and the Philippines.

But it is less than clear, at least to me, that if China's goal was merely to coerce a "UK-based Energy Firm" and other private companies not to develop natural resources in the South China Sea, based on a claim, disputed by China, that the Philippines had a sovereign right to develop such resources, that the Philippines could force the U.S. to join them in a war with China over such coercion.

If China repeatedly refused to be provoked into a war with the Philippines, but only intimidated private companies with "Police Powers", and the actual use of armed police and the credible threat of lethal violence by armed police, it is hard to see the U.S. being drawn into a war planned and executed by the Philippines.

Obama has repeatedly said that the United States does not take sides in the disputes between the "regional countries" as to competing claims in the South China Sea.

Of course if Obama or China wanted to use such "police actions" by China as an excuse for war either of them could make it happen.

China, however, can achieve a more limited objective of reserving the vast resources of the South China Sea for themselves to exploit at a later date when they are militarily stronger, without starting a war today to do so.

Do not get me wrong, in order to exploit those resources in the "Reed Bank" part of the South China Sea, some military power is going to have make the decision, and successfully execute the decision, to gain unchallenged military control over that portion of the South China Sea. China does not need to do so at this time, they can wait, and it is hard to see another military power, with the might to make it stick, to choose to do so at this time.

A tie, without any development at this time is a win for China.

A tie without any development, and no war at this time, is a win-win for China.

[Reality Check]

Accidental War.

Obama, mister lead from behind, limited war against powerless Libya,
would bow any bow, threaten any friend, and abandon any ally to avoid a war that would threaten Obama's domestic agenda.

Just ask the leaders of Egypt, Poland, the Czech Republic, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Great Britain.

[Reality Check]

Who really believes Obama will go to war to help a "UK-based Energy Firm" ?

Who really believes Obama will go to war to ensure rapid economic development of the South China Sea by western interests ?

Obama might go to war if the Philippines were attacked and invaded, but that would require a decision to go to war by China.

Obama might prefer a "negotiated solution" if the "Philippines started it" by sending war ships ( and proved they were a loser by losing those war ships ) rather than using the World Court and the United Nations to decide "police matters".