Financial topics

[aedens]

short swing window
http://warisacrime.org/content/us-hands-mali
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=nato+mali

[aedens]

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co ... owout.html
Jesse had a nice link.

[Higgenbotham]

Desperation setting in as the former Black African slaves try to grab a few crumbs of electronic printed money. Check out the comments for a taste of the future of this ship that is going down.

http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2013/01/12/ ... in-taylor/

[aedens]

Covers what you all have conveyed. These people think we are going to listen to them to turn in what very
well may protect our family. Good greif these people are retarded. Dear Citizen, we who are thousands of miles away
have decided that a toe tag will be ok for you since we solved all the problems on the planet for you.

[Higgenbotham]

It's pretty obvious what is going to happen when the flow of electronic printed money stops for whatever reason, the most likely as conveyed by the PLA in Unrestricted Warfare. If the US refuses to stop overspending, and it already has as of January 1, the Chinese have prepared themselves to flick off the switch.

The US leadership has 2 choices:

1. Close the budget and trade deficits
a. Stop giving electronic printed money to tens of millions of nonproductive people in the form of electronic benefits, Section 8, food stamps, energy assistance, etc. Instead, load the nonproductive on a bus at 6 am and make them earn their keep at a community garden or factory.
b. Stop giving electronic printed money to insolvent corporations in the form of subsidies, tax breaks, full payment for worthless securities, etc. Instead, take them through bankruptcy and jail the criminals who run them.

2. Have the Chinese stop the budget and trade deficits by attacking the US financial infrastructure and flicking off electronic printed money switch, then go to war, which will result in the nuclear annihilation of at least several US cities.

The US leadership will choose option 2. By default, they have already chosen it. I mean, does anybody really think the Chinese or any leadership outside the US are going to read that article out of Taylor, Michigan and believe they have an obligation to continue to pay for reparations to the former Black American slaves, either by eventual inflation or default?

[John]

> Desperation setting in as the former Black African slaves try to
> grab a few crumbs of electronic printed money. Check out the
> comments for a taste of the future of this ship that is going
> down.

> http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2013/01/12/ ... in-taylor/

I've mentioned this before, but things like this remind me of what my
immigrant father said at one point in the 1950s: That the rioting got
so bad in the 1930s that he thought the U.S. would not survive.
Unfortunately, I never asked him what he meant.

[Higgenbotham]

After crude futures received support on Thursday from news that top oil exporter Saudi Arabia had cut production in the last two months of 2012, those cuts helped pressure crude futures on Friday because they indicated a lack of demand and an effort to defend prices.

"Although the sharp Saudi production cuts last month toward 9 million barrels a day were widely mentioned as a bullish consideration, we viewed the reduction as further evidence of global demand weakening and consequently deserving of a bearish checkmark," said a research note from Jefferies Bache.

OPEC's top producer cut oil production by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 9 million bpd during the last two months of 2012, according to a source familiar with Saudi policy.

Major customers for Saudi crude said the cuts were driven by lower demand.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/ ... 3E20130111

Reading this, my suspicion is the global economy might be weaker than most suspect.

[Higgenbotham]

a, anyone who thinks November 16 was a Kitchin cycle bottom needs to get their head examined. Maybe a Wall 7 bottom if they're lucky.

[aedens]

Even those who practise it more than I do have had problems in the application of it. I think at times it is a vary handy thing to consider. I do consider we have a distortion and signaling issue as we noted a short time ago. Goes back to dunbars number of observation somewhat? Psychologist Dennis Fox proposed the same concept as it is applied to anarchy, politics, and the tragedy of the commons.

Or to be more direct how far is the nominal print since you are alot better on that stuff. We tracked some time ago
and came across the effect that I got off about 8 percent then and had to back track to when the effect took hold.
We were not that far off so on that we did just fine with that fit.

cycle decay in the stock market. I'll also show how I think that fits in with the flutter

I found that element fit the cycle also I seen. As you noted the rate of cycle decay, and how far it may actually be.
Goes back to what Faber noted on "effects". I will dig up what he seen or the essence of what he directed attention to.
it is not meant as a confirmation bias but a overlay to the rate of inventory cycle adjustment in supply chain management
which in its self is explainable. I think the energy curve is just as telling as trannies. The latency of effect and slack being reeled in
lately. Some sectors are doing ok so we will see at the margin anyway.

Context of above: Sep 22, 2012 5:40 pm
Thanks H I will check it out. I started noting the channels in 1974 because some friends who survived the domino theory.
I was online then and noted so called reality of the secular mind with still fresh stench of burning city's in my nostrils of thought.
They convey The conclusion is that we are headed into a crisis and I hate to remind them of the obvious we are in it since
the tech bubble massacre and before also. Numerous never made it back as they lost 1/3 wages and 1/2 benefits then. I remind them
of this because the relationships still apply to purchasing power now even more debased and they will target as inflation IT "have" as
we covered here point blank from the meetings of verbiage now at any means of resolve. PI product inflation targets which are separate
from stock basket pushed separate since Input targeting is offsets in the supply chain unacounted for but as you noted the CFO report
which was not different from our 2009 view as we did very early on to net working capital. Capex is stream controlled better now for node
supply chains but cluster control is what the FED is. Not that it is good, or bad but is, therefore we know the trail to the Letter dismissed
of consequences of moral hazzard.

Notes of effect: Mon Sep 17, 2012 5:46 pm
i) the inventory of the world's credible assets is literally evaporating in absence of technological efficiency and CapEx spending (which is also the reason for the ECB's endless lowering of collateral requirements) and ii) illegal rehypothecation of assets, which infinitely dilutes claims on real assets, can and will lead to total losses even for investors who thought they had strong collateral backing. Or, in other words, lose-lose. This may be possible tyler

This we know to be ongoing and tier market rehypothecation of assets just may be ending so Ben covered "maybe also" net loss haircut since beta is just that, beta risk assets and the settled base will ensue. As we manage assets over time even Marx noted the earnings offsets and why. ChiComs just maybe are Auditing the books. As mentioned when supply is impeded in the market cycle which is not a bad reality since as we know the seen and unseen market do interact as we understand. Lets call it as it is because the invisible hand can also give you rope and does. Warned was rope burn here also in the forums.
They will remove obstructions in the river bed of supply since the rivers current does lower. We call it opportunity in the real since I work for the Customer. October to end of the year will be textbook to some and judgement to the path forward. They warned also it does not matter what color the cat is to catch mice. This means no safety stock, no inventory stored for use in smoothing production requirements, and so forth. If it can't be used right now it is considered waste. A number of concepts are central to this idea of waste elimination. Instead of building a large manufacturing plant that does everything, the Japanese tend to build small plants that are highly specialized and form them into focused factory networks. It is difficult to manage a large facility; the bigger it is the more bureaucratic it tends to be. Bureaucracy is not conducive to the best style of management. Also, a specialized plant can be more economically constructed and operated. We stock only when quality lot numbers are essential in controlled Atmosperes.
Opportunity costs must be realized.
Jidoka is a quality concept that means "stop everything" whenever an error occurs. It is controlling quality at the source. Instead of using inspectors to find problems someone else created, the worker is his own inspector, responsible for his/her own quality. When an error or defect is discovered, the worker has the authority and the responsibility to halt the production process. Some of us have been at this a long time H. The ChiComs are waking up maybe. This American was reading Demming as others ignored Him. It took our group time to awake also. I did read that the Best standards have traveled to Groups in Provinces and quality circles misunderstood. We shall see. As Forumed noted before, the 20th was my second window because the first was a surprise to a few for sure and that was me also on the first window and Fate blows direct at times I found as Ella was sent free.
Keiretsu member firms act with considerably greater independence than subsidiary firms. Patience is not found in a whirlwind.

[Higgenbotham]

In the last Kitchin Cycle, the Wall 7 bottom was probably August 16, 2007, the Wall 8 bottom November 21, 2008, and the Wall 9 bottom March 6, 2009.

When the Fed does the interventions, those distort the cycles by lengthening them because the panic is either delayed or it morphs into a buying panic, which turns a whole cycle into a half cycle.

The cycle we are in now is very comparable to the front half of the last Wall 8 which began on August 16, 2007. I wouldn't say for sure that it is a Wall 8 because the expectation would be that any Wall 8 in a later Kitchin Cycle should be weaker the further it is into a long wave. So I'm not trying to figure all that out just yet, but a reasonable expectation would be that this is no further than the front half of a Wall 8, and maybe less than that. If this is the front half of a Wall 8 the expectation would be for a low sometime in 2013. I think there might be one, but would also be looking for a long extension, similar to the extension from the November 2008 low to the March 2009 low except a lot longer, like maybe 1-3 years longer, where the stock indexes could collapse to zero as I've stated. The cycle theory reason for that would be that the overshoot on the upside will then be countered with a mean reversion below zero or really in practical terms to zero. Or another way to think about it is what happens when you jump from the 20th floor all at once instead of taking the stairs down from the 5th floor (where you should have been to begin with) to the 3rd floor.

That would have to do with whether hard limits to profits apply or whether it is possible to extend the larger picture by stagflating an industrial economy. History shows that it is possible to stagflate an agricultural economy but there are a lot of reasons for me to expect that when people have to eat they don't close up shop versus when they have an unprofitable business they do close up shop.