18-Jan-13 WV-Did France kick a hornet's nest with Mali?

[John]

18-Jan-13 World View -- Did France kick a hornet's nest with military intervention in Mali?


Greece concerned about outbreak of violence

** 18-Jan-13 World View -- Did France kick a hornet's nest with military intervention in Mali?
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 18#e130118


Contents:
David Cameron postpones a critical speech on Britain's EU membership
Algeria ends hostage siege violence, embroiling self in Mali war
Questions arise of France's sudden military actions in Africa
Greece concerned about outbreak of violence


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Britain, David Cameron, Algeria, BP,
Ain Amenas, Mali, France, Somalia, Ansar al-Dine,
Israel, Hizbollah, Russia, China, UN Security Council,
Greece, Militant Minority-Lovers of Lawlessness

[Trevor]

Question: does anyone know something about where Mali might be on the generational timeline? I haven't found anything in their recent history that reads remotely like a crisis war and I was wondering if this could end up being one. I've found protests and coups throughout the past several decades of their history, but no crisis war. Is there anyone who can shed some light on this?

[Raynote]

Some analyst on a French radio said that the Touaregs from Northern Mali had, for a short time, allied themselves to Ansar-al-Dine terrorists (or similar ones) moved by their desire to secede from the rest of Mali (taking advantage of the present weakness of the government in Bamako) but that they are not so keen now to maintain that alliance. The analyst added that these Touaregs are very different ethnically and culturally from both the terrorists and the other Malians.

[John]

Dear Trevor,

> Question: does anyone know something about where Mali might be on
> the generational timeline? I haven't found anything in their
> recent history that reads remotely like a crisis war and I was
> wondering if this could end up being one. I've found protests and
> coups throughout the past several decades of their history, but no
> crisis war. Is there anyone who can shed some light on
> this?

Apparently the preceding crisis war was the Tuareg rebellion in
1963, which was brutally crushed by the Malian army.

Low-level violence restarted with a 1990 awakening era Tuareg
rebellion, which quickly fragmented along inter-ethnic conflicts
among the Tuaregs themselves. Since then, there has been a familiar
pattern of periods of low-level violence separated by failing
peace agreements.

The Tuaregs are still split today among those who oppose AQIM and
those aligning themselves with AQIM. However, I would not expect
another crisis civil war until approximately 1963+58 = 2021.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... i-1962.htm

http://kourouma-k-nomadic-conflict-mali.doc