This discussion has highlighted something that hadn't occurred to me
before: That an attack on Vietnam is the "logical" choice for China.
From China's point of view, these would be the advantages:
- It would raise far less nationalism in the United States than
would attacks on Japan or the Philippines.
- China has a score to settle with Vietnam, following the 1979
China-Vietnam war.
- The motive would be "kill a chicken to scare the monkeys."
- It would assert complete control over the South China Sea.
- China claims that America has been a troublemaker in the South
China Sea, because these coutries have been confronting China in the
confident belief that they would be defended by the U.S. If the
U.S. does not defend Vietnam, then the other countries would no longer
feel confident, and would no longer challenge China.
- It would scare Japan, so that China could take control of the
Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, and Japan would retreat.
(The last reason, of course, is sheer fantasy, but it's possible that
Chinese hawks believe it.)
The following is a very interesting pictorial summary of the 1979
China-Vietnam war:
http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0 ... 49,00.html
That was an Recovery/Awakening era war, which ended very quickly, as
one would expect. China made some serious mistakes in that war.
Those mistakes would not be repeated in this crisis era. Vietnam
would be crushed, probably very quickly.
(Note: Vietnam was entering a Recovery era in 1979, and is currently
in an Awakening era.)
It's possible that a Chinese invasion of Vietnam would lead to
President Obama's "Neville Chamberlain moment." But, as in that case,
any further aggressive action by China would lead to full-scale war.