Financial topics

[aedens]

http://www.raymondibrahim.com/from-the- ... ypt-jizya/

Conquered grain colony pays jizya to there new slave masters.

[Higgenbotham]

This would be a specific thought. It was my thought that when the flash crash happened, that was an early sign that a dark age might be coming. That's not a universal opinion, though. Warren Buffett, if he was being honest, said something to the effect that the world is still operating, the stock market has value, and who really cares about a blip? Doesn't mean anything. I've made all sorts of posts to the contrary on that, which don't all mention the flash crash but talk about physical systems and what the early indications are that physical systems are in fact collapsing. The second indication we saw of that was the evening mini crash of December 2012 in the futures market, which was much shorter, but also faster. This is really scary stuff in my opinion but of course not much attention was paid to it because the market crashed 2% in under a minute, then bounced right back up. I would say specifically that if a dark age is really coming, there will be another flash crash that will take the market down even more than these 2 crashes, but next time it won't come back. It'll happen much quicker than the 1929 crash whereas if it's a run of the mill GD cycle it will look closer to 1929 than it will to a flash crash. It would be something on the order of a 20% crash in 10 minutes, but the market doesn't recover.

[aedens]

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... depositors

http://alfidicapitalblog.blogspot.be/20 ... tural.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21825981

No accidents in Politics just intent.

Math: ($3.72 / 1M BTU) x (1000 BTU / 1 cf) x (7 tcf) = $26.04B total present value

Choose to be free or be slaves.

http://prudentbear.com/index.php/featur ... t_id=10766

[Higgenbotham]

The problem is this isn't the 1920s or 1930s. Whether there was deflation as in the US or hyperinflation as in Weimar, the sole proprietor had nowhere to go and kept his business open with reduced throughputs and lower income. The large corporate retail businesses that exist today don't operate on that model. With reduced thoughputs they lay off and close units. When enough units are closed the fixed overheads are too high to make profit. A sole proprietor can survive a 50% contraction of throughput but a mega corporation can not make a profit at some percentage of contraction and the wealthy owners can be fine with closing the doors because they don't need the business to survive and have no incentive to keep losing money.

My prediction 2 years ago as you quoted was that some of the big box units would get recycled in this manner after a bankruptcy. Since then, a lot of damage has been done to the economy with QE2, etc. My initial reaction is to say it will be impossible to get a reconstitution of big box retail in most or all US metro areas due to the damage inflicted over the past 2 years. More likely is that most US cities will decay and crumble, and most big box structures will be abandoned.

No need I can see to change this view from October 14, 2011. The actions since have made this a certainty. This specifies the effect that mann described, which I would term the inability to reconstitute. The wasting process Bernanke has employed has had 4 effects - depletion of savings to reconstitute, depletion of time to reconstitute due to the aging of the population, depletion of knowledge to reconstitute, and depletion of opportunities to reconstitute as the general economy has become more unsound and unstable. But we need to remember too that the Senate didn't have to reconfirm Bernanke in 2010 and they were adequately warned.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/26/opini ... .html?_r=0

Another indication that a dark age is here will be when we see big box retail shut down. I'm once again projecting and have seen enough to be very sure that will happen, especially based on recent news about Wal-Mart that I posted. But it hasn't actually happened.

[Higgenbotham]

I could go on and on with this subject of linking old posts to what the actual evidence would be to confirm a dark age is here. I think this gives enough of the general idea. There's lots of information here in that regard; rarely are the words "dark age" used to describe it, but that is what I am describing, whether explicitly stated or not. Probably the first concrete evidence will be seen in the financial markets but I'm watching everything because Bernanke has been so stubborn about inflating stock prices that the real economy may collapse first, or many things may collapse almost simultaneously.

[aedens]

When the insured acounts run out of metered funds is my take then it gets real.
They can leverage the proven reserves to start anew IMO.

[vincecate]

The final point I would make is that if a dark age is really going to happen, then it might make sense to have a discussion about what the first concrete evidence of such a thing would be, what that might specifically look like, and what might also be concrete evidence that indicates that such a thing is not occurring. In my mind I've seen enough but I don't think it would hurt for most people to wait until they see more with the assumption that they will proceed normally or just devote limited time until more evidence surfaces.

A good place to start is the definition of a "dark age". What do you mean? I think of a dark age as something that goes on for generations, where civilization has regressed somehow. With the Internet it is hard for me to imagine any long term regression. Even with an all out nuclear war not that much knowledge would really be lost. I can well imagine a really really hard time coming, particularly for the USA, but it is hard to see how it would last for generations. Maybe if it becomes so easy to build nuclear bombs that all sorts of 2 bit terrorist organizations were making them. Or if designing viruses that killed different races off became easy enough for random terrorists to do. How do you see the trouble stopping economic progress for more than a few years?

Like the USSR, I think the US central government could collapse. But within a few years of federal taxes going away I think things would be growing fast, though maybe not past where we are now. I think I have high hopes that the individual states would survive and be forced to compete with each other for business and productive people.

[Reality Check]

I think I have high hopes that the individual states would survive and be forced to compete with each other for business and productive people.

The generation(s) that would cause a federal economic collapse, with the same lack of morals and the same lack of historic knowledge, are in charge of the states and the metropolitan areas, and the militarized metropolitan police forces and the sheriffs' offices.

The Republic of the United States was created by god fearing men who had just lived through a crisis war. The American economic empire was built by the men who lived through another crisis war ( World War II ). This collapse is not going to be limited to just the federal government. The hero generation must first survive a financial collapse and/or a crisis war before they can become the hero generation in charge of rebuilding.

[Higgenbotham]

A good place to start is the definition of a "dark age". What do you mean?

Probably best to look over this thread where it is defined and links are given.
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... uum#p16764

Some of the main idea is this:

"I'm going to make a novice attempt to define the difference between the beginning of a Dark Age and a typical fourth turning crisis era.
First attempt: A Dark Age is defined as the social and political breakdown of a regional or world hegemonic power which creates a power vacuum for which there is no clear and immediate successor."
(In simple words that means to me that Washington and New York collapse into chaos and there are no Western capitals to take their place and perform their functions of advancing and preserving Western civilization.)

and also the fact that permanent population reductions the order of 30% like we are trending toward in Japan, the former Soviet Union, and Europe is characteristic of dark ages but not generational crisis periods, which have population reductions on the order of 3%.

[Higgenbotham]

THE PHOENIX PRINCIPLE
AND THE COMING DARK AGE
Social catastrophes – human progress
3000 BC to AD 3000
Marc Widdowson

First published 2001 by Amarna Ltd, 35a Chaucer Road, Bedford, MK40 2AL, United Kingdom

pp. 140-143

Chapter 17 - Defining dark ages
Decline and collapse

It is now possible to provide a concise definition of a dark age.

DA1 A dark age is an extended period of significantly reduced integration, organisation and cohesion. (From an individual’s perspective, social bonds may become more intense in a dark age. However, overall cohesion is reduced because the social network extends much less far. See Figure 15-1.)

Having defined dark ages by DA1, the model of integration, organisation and cohesion immediately indicates the specific features that one would expect dark ages to display. For example, disintegration implies conflict and disorder (P2), which are clearly aspects of dark ages. The classical Greek poet Hesiod deplored the post-Mycenaean age as an era of futility and violence. Disintegration also implies the removal of protection (P1). Certainly, Britain’s dark age followed the withdrawal of the Roman legions, whereupon public safety evaporated and villas everywhere were looted and abandoned. Some other dark age characteristics that ensue from the present model are as follows:
• Less centralised control (=disintegration).
• Less trade (=disorganisation).
• Less social differentiation (follows from loss of political hierarchy and economic specialism (E1)).
• Lack of grand projects (P7).
• Smaller territories (P3, P8).
• Loss of specialised knowledge (E3).
• Proliferation of styles in art (S1, S4).
Few things are more characteristic of a descendant society than the emergence of a squatter mentality. This also follows from DA1. When disorganisation forces people to be self sufficient, they can at best erect only crude shelters, in which there will be few refinements or utilities. If people continue to live within fine old buildings then it is inevitably in a degraded fashion. State societies as a whole are no longer viable during a dark age, since such a high-scale ensemble can be maintained only with high levels of integration and organisation. Hence, a dark age must also result in the loss of characteristic state institutions. Without writing and education, though, few records are produced and much knowledge is simply lost. This is why dark ages are dark. They leave no account of themselves. They are blank pages in the historical record. Thanks to the loss of monumental architecture and the general breakdown of the economy, the material culture of such periods is also sparse and non-durable. Archaeologists are in the dark almost as much as historians.
DA2 Dark ages leave few records and they are periods of obscurity in historical retrospect. The characteristic features of a dark age add up to a time of poverty, low aspirations and low achievement. There is endless petty violence and a moral free-for-all. In this sense, the descent into a dark age can be described quite fairly as a process of cultural degradation. When people from still ascendant societies contemplate one that is verging towards a dark age, or already in a dark age, they are bound to regard it as hopeless and dire. Administrators sent to Greece from Constantinople, during Europe’s barbarian era, described it as a god-forsaken hole that offered none of the rudiments of civilisation to which it had formerly contributed so much.1476 Those who experience a dark age develop attitudes to match. To reduce cognitive dissonance, they tailor their expectations to what their means can afford. There is a harder, less self-indulgent outlook on life. People renounce material comforts and rely more heavily on other-worldly fulfillment. At the same time, devoid of rulers, they develop habits of freedom. They have little to lose from conflict and are quite willing to participate in and perpetuate the troubles. Hence, a dark age will seem to be a time that emphasises asceticism, spiritual values, fierce independence, and the martial spirit. This complex of attitudes is bound up with the prevailing social conditions to form a logical ensemble.1477 Life must be simple when people are poor, and naturally people will then value the simple life. During a period of decline, before the arrival of a dark age proper, the processes of disintegration, disorganisation and discohesion, which have already occurred in reality, begin filtering through into perceptions. There is a growing popular consciousness of social deterioration, and this also provokes certain characteristic attitudes. At one extreme, there are those who actively endorse the way that old habits and old symbols lose legitimacy (S6). For them, whatever was fine or heroic about the old order no longer appears as such and instead approval is extended to things that were formerly regarded as common, debased, uncouth and immoral. The Cynic school, which was spawned by the decay of classical Greece, typifies these philosophies that enshrine disdain and positively uphold depraved behaviour. Diogenes declared that he was a citizen of no state, expressed contempt for patriotism and asserted the naturalness of sexual activity by masturbating in public.
An opposing reaction is typified by the Stoic school. This was also spawned by the decay of classical Greece and became popular again in Rome as the empire’s troubles mounted. It emphasises a resigned attitude to the difficulties of life and the need to maintain personal standards of conduct in an imperfect world. This philosophy provides solace to those who continue to cherish the old legitimacies and for whom the negation of these legitimacies is disorienting and depressing. As perceptions catch up with the reality, people comment on their problems at length and many of them may deplore the direction in which they see things moving. Such concern implies not so much conviction about the shape of the future, as fear for it. People can find it hard to believe that their former advantages are really lost forever, and they cling to the notion that the decline may be reversed. In a letter preserved from fifth century Roman Gaul, the author writes about mounting chaos but nevertheless expresses the hope that it will be a passing phase. The concern with decline is symptomatic of it. As G K Chesterton observed, fit people do not worry about their health.1478 If perceptions were to remain positive and confident, the reality might indeed recover from a decline. However, when there is more wringing of hands than any practical attempt to seize the initiative and overcome the problems, a society is essentially doomed. Reflexivity (TC11) also implies that negative perceptions may only further corrode the real situation. The entrenchment of pessimistic expectations is a sign that distinguishes an incipient dark age from more transient dips in a society’s fortunes.
DA3 Belief in decline is a component of it.
Creativity and continuity
To say that dark ages involve cultural degradation presents a negative impression, which would probably accord with most people’s picture of what a dark age involves. However, the optimistic side of a dark age is that, by restoring perceptions to the reality, it forces the members of a social group to arrive at a more realistic picture of the world and their position within it. This is helpful since it provides a firm foundation for future progress. The breaking down of old certainties presents an opportunity for new ways of doing things to emerge. Conservatism is replaced with radical inventiveness, and diverse ideas may be able to flourish. At the same time, the dark age serves as a kind of testing ground. Nothing is ruled out solely on principle, although only the most successful ideas will persist and be developed. Hence, the dark age yields not only new ideas, but also better ones. During the last days of the second world war, German planners were considering the re-building of Berlin after the war had ended. They thought about moving the capital to a new site. It soon became clear, however, that this would be prohibitively difficult because of the way that road, rail, gas and electricity networks all converged on the existing capital. Even if Berlin were removed, its image would be visible in the rest of Germany’s infrastructure.1479 This illustrates the way that a society’s entrenched institutions can inhibit its freedom to evolve and advance. Very far-reaching destruction may be needed before it becomes worthwhile to consider a wholly new direction, so that people can build things up from scratch. Yet without such destruction the society may be trapped down some sub-optimal developmental route or cul-de-sac. Hence, a dark age is a time of great creativity and progress. Innovation is always in some ways inherently destructive. Edward Gibbon made this need to destroy in order to advance a central theme of his study of Rome’s decline and fall.1480 The economist Joseph Schumpeter characterised economic depressions as periods of creative destruction that are essential to economic progress.1481 Sweeping away outmoded firms and industries is painful but it has to be done to make way for the next major advance. A dark age is the same phenomenon writ large. It is a time when society is thrown back into the melting pot. Wornout institutions are broken down and obstacles to social progress are removed. Fantastic opportunities then emerge as people re-build integration, organisation and cohesion. A dark age is certainly not a sombre time for everybody.1482 For those who have talent and initiative, the dark age offers many rewards.
DA4 A dark age is a time of creativity. Old and inappropriate institutions or ideas are replaced with new, more realistic ones. It follows that a dark age should not be regarded simply as an accident into which societies fall by misfortune. Rather dark ages are an absolutely necessary and integral part of the historical process. They deliver long run benefits. Without dark ages, human societies would have stagnated long ago. Traditional policies of preventing forest fires have similarly been recognised as counterproductive. Preventing fires only causes undergrowth and dead wood to build up and clog the forest, which not only harms its ecology but also provides a growing supply of combustible material. Periodic fires, often set by lightning, are essential to the health of the forest. Some tree species even require a fire so that their cones will open and they can complete their lifecycles. This is not surprising really. Forests existed for a long timebefore humans became involved in managing them.1483 A forest fire is a good analogy for a dark age. It clears out dead wood. It consumes the old institutions that have become harmful to progress but are so ingrained they are virtually impossible to change smoothly. This seems to be a very general process in nature, and history is just one illustration of it. Another example is found in the fact that damming rivers, and thus preventing flash floods, means that they become clogged with debris to the detriment of their flora and fauna. Floods are necessary to restore a river’s health. Similarly, in biological evolution, mass extinction events have been followed by bursts of speciation as life rushes into the many niches that have been created. This logic of destruction followed by creative recovery is a general feature of complex systems. Dark ages imply renewal and growth. After a dark age, the old civilisation is never simply revived. There is a qualitatively new configuration, and this is largely discontinuous with what went before.1484 The longer and deeper the dark age, the more radical the new configuration. That is to say, significant change requires a significant dark age. The place where destruction begins and proceeds the furthest is likely to make the earliest and most complete recovery.1485 This is the phoenix principle. Catastrophe comes before progress. One cannot occur without the other and the greater the catastrophe, the greater the progress. On the other hand, the old ways seldom die out completely. There is continuity in some cultural elements.1486 For instance, Roman language, law and other institutions survived in barbarian Europe, albeit transformed. On the broadest view, world history shows obvious progress despite the many setbacks.1487 Few major technologies were lost when Rome collapsed,1488 or at least they were easily re-invented. Superimposed on the ferment of integration, organisation and cohesion, therefore, there is an overall improvement in technology and in human institutions.