Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Wednesday, November 3, 2010 (QE2 announced) to Friday, February 18, 2011 is 107 days.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010 (QE2 announced) to Friday, March 11, 2011 (Fukushima) is 128 days.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012 (QE4 announced) to Friday, March 29, 2013 is 107 days.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012 (QE4 announced) to Friday, April 19, 2013 is 128 days.

April 19 (which is 6 months opposite October 19 on the calendar -the date of the 1987 crash) is a date in history that is known for bad things happening. Some recent examples are:
April 19, 1993 Waco Branch Dividian
April 19, 1995 Oklahoma City
April 20, 1999 Columbine
April 20, 2010 BP Oil Spill

For some reason, when bad things are about to happen, I've observed that the masses will engage in similar patterns of behavior, and the stock market is the best record of this. It may be that this time the stock market will be the thing in which the tragedy occurs.

I love Higgy's "cyclic numerology" predictions, but they have not panned out. I am still completely committed to the coming generational collapse, but remain fully in the Taleb black swan camp.

Let's see how this one goes. In the 47 year cycle I noted awhile back, the harder selling began to hit the stock market in the second half of April 1966. The 1825 Panic occurred in April, and the collapse of the 1637 Tulip Mania ended on May 1, according to most accounts (1825 being 4 47 year cycles back and 1637 being 8 47 year cycles back).

I think cycles are probably valid, but the inaccuracy or misinterpretation is more attributable to those who are applying them. Knowing the importance of the Fed actions, the afore mentioned diagram and correlations should not have been missed, but I missed them.

Something else I mentioned awhile back was the 83.5 years between the major bubbles (Tulip and South Sea). The obvious answer is to go forward 83.5 years from September 3, 1929. The less obvious answer is that the market sold off, then made a lower peak on October 11, 1929 and 83.5 years from that day is April 11, 2013. If that were to line up with other cycles (it does), it might work, whereas March 3, 2013 doesn't line up with anything else that I am aware of. If the Fed is pushing this thing for all it's worth, the less obvious answers might be the right ones.

[aedens]

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/v ... p_03282013

They look starving Americans in the face and throw the food in the trash.
US Savings Rate Near Record Low, Per Capita Disposable Income Almost Back To December 2006 Level.

It never ceases to amaze me how disconnected it all is. Asked a person on what would you do when they take
your savings as what just happened in Cyprus? Answer was where is that? This Country is rotten to the core
and beyond any redemption of value as warned before.

hmmmm -- and the masses will do what? nothing G they are beyond help now.

The craziness on Wall Street, the reckless for-the-moment-only behavior that led to the Financial Crisis, is back. This time it’s Citigroup that is once again concocting “synthetic” securities, like those that had wreaked havoc five years ago. And once again, it’s using them to shuffle off risks through the filters of Wall Street to people who might never know. What bubbled to the surface is that Citigroup is selling synthetic securities that yield 13% to 15% annually—synthetic because they’re based on credit derivatives. Apparently, Citi has a bunch of shipping loans on its books, and it’s trying to protect itself against default. In return for succulent interest payments, investors will take on some of the risks of these loans. The first deal of this type was negotiated privately with Blackstone Group and closed last December. This second deal will be open to a broader group of institutional investors. Soon, similar synthetic securities will be offered to the treasurers of small towns in Norway. wolf

This time the 401k will be needed for bail ins and the Senate will do it since they are, well - owned.

As for a actual business http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-2 ... -zero-cash
Murdered

[aedens]

Lesson #1 Government agencies allocate capital better than the private sector
Lesson #2 Central banks should control asset prices and prevent them from falling
Lesson #3 Darwin & Schumpeter were wrong, creationists are right; there is such a thing as a free lunch
Lesson #4 Towards a new orthopraxy
Lesson #5 Wondrous tools used by the clergy to grow GDP
Lesson #6 How to finance infinite needs
Lesson#7 Snip the spinal cords of viable human being I have to pay for or be locked in a cage.
Lesson #8 Contacted Republicans who do not care that they do and Democrats who could even care less.

[gerald]

trust?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-29/oooops

[Higgenbotham]

Bernanke prints $85 billion per month supposedly to get 200,000 new jobs that pay about $30,000 per year on average.

OK, let's do the math. $85 billion divided by 200,000 is $425,000 per job. That's if the Fed actions create every single one of those jobs and it assumes job creation on the high end of what it's been over the past 3 years. Therefore, the best possible payback from QE is 14 years. Does anybody really believe he is printing all this money to create jobs? I don't; I think it's for the banks. a, I noticed in the video you linked SunTrust Bank made the decision to throw that food away. Figures.

[Higgenbotham]

Under conditions expected to be announced on Saturday, depositors in Bank of Cyprus will get shares in the bank worth 37.5 percent of their deposits over 100,000 euros, the source told Reuters, while the rest of their deposits may never be paid back.

Officials had previously spoken of a loss to big depositors of 30 to 40 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/ ... 3I20130329

[aedens]

DC and Wall Street, are clearly going after one another now. Someone needs to take the blame for a destroyed economy. The finger pointing war became quite clear for all to see during the so called fiscal cliff clash. There, Wall Street lay in wait for the Senate to make the mistake of shutting off the perpetual spending/funding machine of our broke government. DC, sensing a trap, sidestepped and Wall Street was forced to rally on the "good news" that the spending machine did not have its plug pulled. Surely, had DC contemplated halting insane debt accumulation, Wall Street would have crashed the market and blamed a "dysfunctional congress." Onward then to the "debt ceiling" issue, where DC announced NO DEBT CEILING, and Wall Street was forced to rally further, again creating the allusion that perpetual spending to infinity was a positive thing, while in reality, removing its short positions again causing the market to rise. "Blast!" exclaimed Wall Street, missing another chance to send the market reeling on political failure. Wall Street has answered, of course, with Ben Bernanke QE4eva...which keeps interest rates from rising when they otherwise surely would, not wanting to be blamed by Chucky Schumer for not "getting to work" and shutting down "the only game in town" and causing a market wide panic. Ben obliges, taking quantitative easing to the level of obscenity, once again stalling the market's eventual recognition that it is doomed. Now, DC strikes back once more, insider trading, one of the largest hedge fund managers in the business. Surely, it is his fault. Surely, the eventual market decline will be because of corrupt money managers...yes...yes. After all, everyone knows that you could cast a two block wide net in NY, NY and catch a dozen of those guys. Back and forth, all while the debt skyrockets, and now with a market bubble passing all time highs. The canalization is well engaged. Which of these two absurd players will take the fall for what literally has to happen? Stay tuned...cdad

[Higgenbotham]

Another interesting cycle, coincidence, or observation.

From the March 6, 2009 stock market low to the March 11, 2011 Fukushima disaster was 2 years and 5 days. From the March 11, 2011 Fukushima disaster to the March 16, 2013 shutting of the Cyprus banks was also 2 years and 5 days.

Here's another interesting factor related to that. After the Fukushima disaster, the stock market fell about 60 points and made a low 5 days later on March 16, 2011. But after the Cyprus news hit, the stock market opened on Monday, March 18, 2013 and made a high 10 days later on March 28, 2013. So the March 6, 2009 low, the March 16, 2011 low and the March 28, 2013 high are also about equidistant, especially when trading sessions are considered versus calendar days.

Of course, I can't say for sure whether these events are related. But we know that Abe is printing money like mad in Japan and I suspect that may be roiling the world financial system enough to set problems off in places that appear unrelated.

If for some reason the stock market gaps down from that Thursday high and doesn't come back up to it next week, it would be my thought that Japan is destabilizing the world financial system, there are more problems to come, and the top is likely in on the stock market.

[Higgenbotham]

a, I think that guy has laid out another important factor. It's sort of like when the Hunt Brothers cornered the silver market but this situation is a lot more serious. Bernanke and the banks have put a corner on the stock and bond markets and he's damned if he is going to take the blame for it, and the politicians are damned if they are going to take the blame for what he's done. Meanwhile, the bubble grows and grows; everyone knows it's a corner and it's going to crash and they are trying to figure out what the hell to do. They are screaming and beating their chests like a bunch of monkeys throwing feces in a zoo cage to get the public to buy and the public is not buying. The new person on the Fed, Esther George, has voted no from day 1, I think because she doesn't want to be tainted. It's not out of the question to think the military or a dictator could briefly take over and execute every one of them after this thing collapses.

[aedens]

We made it known early the seen and unseen to affairs and the encyclical nature to todays natural economics of moral hazzard and scope.
I helped set the budget in our district and know what and who was helping and why the others set us up to fail since the affairs was apalling. It was easier to fix the problem than seek a solution to the outgoing problem to protect the taxpayer. The other members on the board remember why and as I conveyed we prayed that we would be relieved of the civil service to the community. Thank the lord others relieved us duty since we knew it was correct going forward to preserve the taxpayers in the district. I was looking at some other districts travails today and they are to the point we seen coming anyways. Many misunderstand the current process and this was noted here on the affairs to protect the taxpayer from predatory litigations soon to be on contractual covenants. It is a no win issue but we did it early since we seen what it was to protect the public from injury. Complicated process to some very narrow people.

The Russians conveyed what took then out in 1989 point blank and it was not the ship yard strike. I consider that a viable thought to the problem they
created. Nobody wishes them ill but they did not care to listen anyway from the reports I have read in crisis management reality's. We wish to be incorrect but the science of hard facts trumps opinions given if you have separate interests no proper solution can be attained since as it is put the improbable is the greastest amount of damage in risk management. I have noted this true fact point blank because it does happen. I was told one time it was easier to remove the problem of observation than fix the actual problem. Time it got to the proper level of discernment both problems got nuetralized and we made progress on many levels to viable solutions. Your flutter analogy fits to the affairs of the day and also it could be noted on a few other analogys found to be true in the GD context.