China Secretly Supporting North Korea?

[EbonyMom]

What if China is secretly supporting/encouraging North Korea in efforts to achieve China's small "manageable" war? My suggestion is: China fakes indignation towards North Korean actions at every turn (while secretly supporting NK) and no one will publicly challenge her because no one wants a war with China. Obama and other world leaders can blame everything on NK, letting China off the hook--the American press will go along with it. All-the-while, Lil' Kim "unifies" the south into one Korea and gains prestige at home having full-filled his grand-fathers dreams. Mean-while, China moves forces into NK--that are already mobilized at the border--under the pretext of providing humanitarian aid for its' ally while NK sends most all of its' troops south. In the latter scenario China is well positioned to covertly provide logistical aid to NK forces in the south...

I'm suggesting China's incursions on territory owned by the Philippines, Japan and Vietnam maybe a diversion... It's been suggested the best target for China's "manageable" war would be Vietnam, but what, economically, is China to gain from dominating Vietnam? Take over South Korea and you have a second Hong Kong--and the bulk of your forces are safely in NK while Lil' Kim does the dirty work of policing after the take-over. The world knows what actually has happened, but the world's liberal media tows the line and blames it all on Lil' Kim...

In my scenario no nuclear weapons will actually be used--blunting America's response, but tons of Chinese/Korean made surface-to-surface/air missiles could be, as well as a ton of other Chinese made weaponry that may have already been delivered to NK. What if NK uses said weaponry to ONLY attack South Korean forces, not American bases--which might also blunt America's response?

It sounds ridiculous, but it might make sense. China, sort-of, did something similar in the 1950's using NK in a proxy war against America. And if the world press blamed it all on Lil' Kim then the other "monkeys" would fall in line knowing who was really behind this--and China is officially recognized as a regional power in the east because she showed a willingness to pull the trigger (covertly?). And they'd easily gain control of a few puny islands for more symbolism...

If my speculation is correct, then Lil' Kim is about to start a major war...

[gerald]

Hope this is not indicative of many in Japan ---

From http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-1 ... -front-war

"As recently an extreme japanese organization in Osaka mentioned during a protest to rape any Korean women in Japan, a Japanese middle-school girl does something shocking at a subway station in Tsruhashi."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4oOW6QJf ... 9OTTcIZeYA...

"We will start Tsuruhashi massacre like Nanking massacre"

nice - not

[Reality Check]

I believe it is obvious to most knowledgeable observers that North Korea can not even threaten war without the de-facto support of China.

All China would have to do to send a message is close the border to shipments of goods into North Korea. Without even saying one word - the North Koreans would be forced to dance to whatever tune China wants to play.

Exactly what China is trying to achieve here is less clear.

China's trade with south Korea is huge. If North Korea occupied South Korea, China would lose virtually all of that trade and have an even larger North Korean population to subsidize.

More likely China's goals are more modest. Make the U.S. loose face with it's allies in Asia is likely one, and it is working. The U.S. is going along with that plan by canceling long standing U.S. ballistic missile tests and promising to take only measured, limited military action in Korea, and promising only to take such action in response to actual North Korean aggression.

The United States government under Obama is also putting out statements that only China can stop North Korea and nobody else can. This of course is the same as the U.S. announcing that the United States is impotent in Asia and China is powerful.

Another limited goal of China might be to cause the U.S. to expose to the world how it will mobilize for a war in Asia.

On the other hand, China may be seeking to force the U.S. to commit most of the limited U.S. ground forces in the U.S. military to defend Soul in South Korea, or lose face by allowing North Korea to overrun Soul ( which is just across the border from North Korea ) and relying on U.S. air power to punish North Korea for it's aggression. North Korea would then be forced to withdraw by China leaving the U.S. to appear impotent and China strong.

Or this may be the opening gambit in a Chinese territorial expansion in Asia by military means. In which case this is just a part of a plan to draw U.S. Military assets into Asia where they would be vulnerable to a surprise military attack by China, similar to the Japanese attacks on Pearl harbor. A very poor and risky strategy on China's part, IMHO, but possible with the new generation in charge in China.

[Reality Check]

The biggest threats to China dominating Asia are the countries of Japan, Australia and Vietnam in that order.

Japan and Australia could have nuclear weapons in two years, if they believed their very existence depended on them.

China's biggest risk in all this is those three countries developing nuclear weapons on a crisis schedule.

What ever game China is playing, it must include keeping those countries ant-Nuke and helpless against a growing nuclear power like China with the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world.

The U.S. is in the process of rapidly disarming itself in regards to both Nuclear and Conventional forces.

Obama plans to accelerate that disarmament and make the cost of reversing it prohibitively high in the future.

[Reality Check]

I'm suggesting China's incursions on territory owned by the Philippines, Japan and Vietnam maybe a diversion... It's been suggested the best target for China's "manageable" war would be Vietnam, but what, economically, is China to gain from dominating Vietnam? Take over South Korea and you have a second Hong Kong--and the bulk of your forces are safely in NK while Lil' Kim does the dirty work of policing after the take-over. The world knows what actually has happened, but the world's liberal media tows the line and blames it all on Lil' Kim...

A South Korea occupied by North Korean troops, not "protected" by Chinese troops as Hong Kong is under the British-China agreement returning Hong Kong to China, is not an economic win for China, it is an economic disaster.

South Korea is one of China's largest trading partners, and that would end with the exodus of the rich and skilled South Koreans after Seoul was occupied. North Korea could capture Seoul quickly if the U.S. infantry soldiers were ordered not to stand and die defending it, side by side, with the South Korean Infantry, such a stand would only buy time for U.S. ground re-enforcements to arrive. But the price would be thousands, likely tens of thousands, U.S. soldiers killed, wounded or captured.

U.S. air power is most effective when the enemy is forced to mass for an assault against large numbers of dug in infantry. U.S. soldiers would have to stand, fight and die between the North Korean border and Seoul to make U.S. air power effective before Seoul was occupied. After Seoul was occupied the U.S. Air Force would have to destroy Seoul to save it.

The largest economic gain for China would come for having exclusive control of the South China Sea; and more than half of the Seas and Oceans between China and Japan; for oil, gas and fishing exploitation. Invading Vietnam might achieve that if it were a success. Invading South Korea might also achieve that if it were a success. But the U.S. has forces in South Korea and there is a much bigger risk of a war between China on the one hand, and the U.S., Japan and Australia on the other, if North Korea tried to occupy Seoul and required Chinese troops to avoid defeat at the hands of the combined U.S., Japan, Australia and the South Korean Navies, Air Forces and armies.

China is obviously giving North Korea the green light to threaten Japan and the U.S. with nuclear attack - but what exactly China's goals are here is not clear.

[EbonyMom]

The "rich and skilled" did not flee Hong Kong when China took over. A few maybe, but most stayed and Hong Kong thrives today. If NK unified Korea life would go on. South Koreans would not automatically stop working and eating...

[Reality Check]

China did not invade Hong Kong. China did not change the form of government in Hong Kong. China did not change the economic system in Hong Kong. The military garrison in Hong Kong just went from being British to Chinese.

North Korea's ideas of government, economics and servitude by the workers to the party elite would drive anyone with the economic means to leave South Korea, to do so.

North Korea might be able to invade and occupy Soul, South Korea, but South Korea's trading partners would find new suppliers long before the entire country of South Korea became secure enough to actually resume trade with the outside world under North Korean occupation. The southern tip of Korea could remain under the South Korean governments control for years after the invasion, supplied by allied navies. Only direct military intervention by China would have any chance of occupying the entire peninsula in a period of a few months - and even that is an open question militarily.

Even if the rest of the world did not politically impose a trade embargo on the occupied portion of South Korea, the free market would have moved on to other countries as suppliers long before South Korean slaves in Soul were able to resume producing goods for their new communist slave masters.

[thomasglee]

Koreans are Koreans whether they live in the north or the south. Don't underestimate their penchant for grandiose actions in an effort to make themselves seem larger than life. I love how people think the norKs won't do this or that because of China. The Koreans are Koreans first and foremost and they WILL do stupid acts to prove their "independence". China does not have nearly the control over the north that many seem to think.