Financial topics

[gerald]

Here g you will just love our tax dollars at work. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwRTN2pp ... e=youtu.be

Trying to Repay The Department of Education

Nice --That is a little worse than trying to get a refund from Peoples Gas -- a privately owned Chicago utility.

[at99sy]

will break 15,000 before the great fall. Probably will go to 15,200 just to bring in as much as possible. Very little market reaction to the Marathon bombing. All feel good story now. Heading into spring shoppers are out, gas is cheap again....check that gas is expensive? fresh crop of college grads getting ready to move home with mom and dad, minimum wage jobs......If the Boston bombers were working alone, unlikely, were good for at least 2 months, if part of an active cell and they escalate, 2-5 weeks. The fed will not stop what they are doing and will up the ante in their favor to keep the ball rolling. Although, things seem mighty quiet in the news all things considered lately. Maybe the big black bird did fly Monday.

cheers

sy

Dow past 15,000 SP past 1600. Getting closer to the minimum top I called.

cheers

[Higgenbotham]

Yeah, I think it must be close. Though I wouldn't be surprised to see another 1 or 2 weeks if this thing is inverting into a generational upcrash, which is what it appears to be doing.

The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximise the suffering, and also ensure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune. The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and more urgent one, and if he met that there would still be another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost. The man with the smart money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came, naturally went back in to pick up bargains. (Not only were a record 12,894,650 shares sold on 25 October; precisely the same number were bought.) The bargains then suffered a ruinous fall. Even the man who waited out all of October and all of November, who saw the volume of trading return to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce market, and who then bought common stocks would see their value drop to a third or a fourth of the purchase price within the next twenty-four months. The Coolidge bull market was a remarkable phenomenon. The ruthlessness of its liquidation was, in its own way, equally remarkable.

The current situation looks like the above Galbraith quote in reverse.

I've mentioned a Boomer with 40 years of trading experience who was short and recommending shorts in January. He traded for one of the big brokerages, then went off on his own. Today he finally gave up on being short. He seemed almost incoherent. He asked why his methods which have always worked have failed to work. That's the first time he's asked. Before that, he completely ignored every caution I gave him and latched onto anything that supported his view.

So as of now I'm the only person I know of who is still short and solvent. I'm not saying that's a good thing or anything to take pride in. I talked last week about needing to make a margin call and today I made it. Though the broker hadn't asked for any additional margin I knew the request would come on Monday.

Also, people I know of who have more or less accurately called tops in the past have all failed this time.

[Higgenbotham]

I've read 2 guys who are in the running for getting the top of the stock market called right. They can't both be right though.

The first is an anonymous forum contributor who uses astrology and what he calls proprietary geometric methods. He said months ago the S&P would top out at 1610 on May 5, 2013. That would be one hell of a call if it drops from right here. The reason he had a Sunday instead of a weekday is that's where his calculations hit so he just used that day.

The second is a pattern/wave recognition guy who has a forecasting service, which I get. He has been right on every twist and turn in the stock market for months. Now he is saying the S&P will do one final parabolic blowoff to at least 1660 and likely 1700 by the end of May.

[Higgenbotham]

If we're following the inverse of 1929 my dates for the top of the upcrash would be May 6 with a possible dip from there and extension to a slightly higher high on May 21.

[jcsok]

The addage of "Sell in May, go away" will probably kill the remaining bears as Bernanke continues to feed the bulls. As so many bears have discussed, this market is irrational, and the bears continue to be slaughtered by the FED. As the market implodes upward, the "Sell in May" crowd will be forced out of short positions; the next full moon is May 25; sell into the full moon as the bears are forced to cover on that rally. The "Sell in May" bears that were forced to cover will then be kicking themselves with the typical "I was right, I just couldn't stay." Once again "The markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

[at99sy]

If we're following the inverse of 1929 my dates for the top of the upcrash would be May 6 with a possible dip from there and extension to a slightly higher high on May 21.

In agreement. As there is nothing of substance in this fantasy market to shake it out right now.
A pattern of small and large drops will be exceeded by still larger up trends. I like the up crash verbiage, fits rather nicely.
Imagining a volcano with a massive pressure dome that builds up, shrinks, builds ,shrinks, then goes all out in one final
heave. Think St. Helens and Pinatubo.

cheers
sy

[gerald]

An interesting video on the Japanese carry trade and possible impact on US bond, and gold markets -- and by implication US stock markets
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/05/m ... es-of.html

[aedens]

http://books.google.be/books?id=yJ74V1a ... &q&f=false

[aedens]

Buy stocks for the long run
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