Higgenbotham wrote: I think the market can tank at any time now but I've been so wrong for so long it doesn't matter.
That is the way I feel. I think it should crash but I have been thinking this for a long time. If I did not already own my S&P puts I might not even buy any at this point, I am so unsure. Reminds me of the "when all the shorts have lost their nerve is when the market crashes". So maybe it is a good sign.
Many markets are like this. If everyone thinks the market is going to go up then they have already bought stocks, so with no more buyers, it can not go up.
Hyperinflation does not work this way. When everyone thinks the Yen is going to crash, it will crash.
vincecate wrote:Reminds me of the "when all the shorts have lost their nerve is when the market crashes". So maybe it is a good sign.
I think that's right in this case. There aren't going to be any bears to cover when it collapses for 2 reasons. The first reason is most of the bears are dead. The second reason is that any who are left won't cover. I don't plan to cover until the S&P goes to zero.
I told someone last week that I think the S&P can go to around 1485 by the end of this month. He said no way. This is the same guy who was uber bearish at 1050 and saying the market would crash from there. Now he is bullish. Many examples of this. Everyone now has an excuse as to why the market can go higher. "Advance decline line didn't diverge", etc. As an example, if a US city gets taken out with a suitcase nuke, it won't diverge, it will just collapse.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
I agree on the logic since varables build that, and yes things can and are uncertain.
We are noting the seams as we conveyed basically. I can pull up my best guess notes
for june and july from us and we are not that far off target on some noted relationships
and raise a eybrow on our own confirmation bias. It happens at time since no matter
what many will confirm luck is better than good in the kings with one eye in the percentages
who are blind as we know. I will scout up and down as we do here and share with friends and curse
the enemy of who deprive freedom to others to think and act for others first and themselves last.
My take would be that advance decline line divergence would be a natural free market process but Bernanke has run the market on steroids past the point where the divergence would have already been seen. So there will be no divergence of the advance decline line this time. 99% will be caught off guard by this or something else that they are looking for as a marker.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
True, they have tried, but their efforts have been cast in the pattern of an outworn tradition. Faced by failure of credit, they have proposed only the lending of more money. Stripped of the lure of profit by which to induce our people to follow their false leadership, they have resorted to exhortations, pleading tearfully for restored conditions. They know only the rules of a generation of self-seekers.
They have no vision, and when there is no vision the people perish.
It's an interesting article with interesting charts, but after reading
it I don't know whether he expects inflation or deflation in Japan.
Typical Mauldin.
However, he does say, "shorting the Japanese government is the trade
of the decade" which, I suppose, implies that he expects inflation.
On the other hand, he pushes hard on the demographics, which,
I suppose, implies that he expects deflation.
Every time I'm reminded of this interview, I laugh about the part where he said "Yes." I think we're moving into the "afterwards" stage. The way I'd phrase it is we're moving from "bad" to "worse" to "Oh, my God".
Ferdinand Lips
Transcription of Audio Interview, March 8, 2003
JIM: The Depression that plagued the United States and much of the world in the 1930s was a deflationary depression. There’s a big debate in the gold camp today about the outcome of this depression. Will it be deflationary, inflationary, or a bit of both?
Mr. LIPS: Yes.
JIM: Will we end up like Argentina and Germany, or will it be once again what is going on in Japan today and the U.S. in the 1930s in your opinion?
Mr. LIPS: I think we will see both, first an Argentinean situation and afterwards, if sound policies are not applied, it will be a repeat of Weimar Germany. We know what happened after that. For the immediate future, the U.S. will go through some kind of Japanese experience.
This is why there was hyperinflation – the complete collapse in CONFIDENCE in government. This is precisely what followed the fall of Rome where gold vanished and was not coined again in Europe until the 13th century. Japan also experience the complete collapse in trust of government and this is essential to creating a dark age.
This is one of the points I made to the poster mhrr in the other thread as to why we are entering into a dark age:
August 14, 2012
Congress Approval Ties All-Time Low at 10%
Americans' approval of Congress has been below 20% since June 2011
by Frank Newport
PRINCETON, NJ -- Ten percent of Americans in August approve of the job Congress is doing, tying last February's reading as the lowest in Gallup's 38-year history of this measure. Eighty-three percent disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job.
John wrote:
It's an interesting article with interesting charts, but after reading
it I don't know whether he expects inflation or deflation in Japan.
It is trivial to get both at the same time. If you define deflation as "total supply of money plus credit marked to market going down" and then inflation as "prices going up" you will find you get both at the start of every hyperinflation. Bond prices crash as interest rates start going up. This makes "credit marked to market" go down, so by that definition you have deflation. Prices start going up as the central bank monetizes bonds like crazy and there is far more cash in the system. If you define hyperinflation as 26% per year or 40% per year or something like that you can have hyperinflation and deflation at the same time.
Stress cracks induced from to many self licking ice cream cones parasites at the governments dinner table
as actual food disappers. People in our area are having problems buying gas to get to work or buy food.
Its real, its that bad and either taxes go down or we fall, these are honest people suffering in silence.
I will get his testamony and post it here since truth is oxygen. They are taxing us of course to save us from
ourself. We are really breaking down locally now and the Statists take more.
On another note it is safe to assume our Noske moment has arrived and Higg was correct on they will find
a way to chop you up for control. They take one piece at a time to preserve the ice cream supply.
The parasites are killing the host now and picking the bones clean as we noted before.
