Financial topics

[aedens]

In 1936, stock prices in Britain peaked out about 40% over their 1928 high. The chart is in an old book and not the best. I've never seen or read any corroboration, or anything to indicate it didn't happen.

We noticed the command and control elements in that era as others indeed seen. How ruthlessely pragmatic was FDR since
a generic sweep of the cabinet positions of finance tell the augmented reality of social silences and the freezing of developemental
formative capital pools. They knew this rentier mindset and proverbial paradox of thrift and we conveyed as twisting the towel
to renewed cartelizations pogoms. I find it typical as we match the theators of operations. Difficult and time consuming as it is
the seven sisters to the five pillars sums it up as did lincolns republicanism to meet the kaiser social services to make better soldiers.
How many consider the cotton gin and steam engine the end of forced servatude, and the book we linked on how the capital profiteers
condenscended they would rather live in windowless hovels as the hill folk died from condition even before the teens years ended.
I cannnot understand other than what we see today they cannot even define poor.

[aedens]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/first-tru ... 00832.html

[aedens]

http://www.investorvillage.com/uploads/ ... leBoom.pdf

[Reality Check]

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Obamacare Real World Example for Employer Based Health Care Changes

“As a business owner, we have to be viable first and then provide services,” he said. Lutz is not required to provide health insurance to workers, but has done so for 35 years.

The 41 employees of Extreme Dodge ( voted one of 100 best auto dealerships to work for in U.S. ) ... are very familiar with trade-ins, but this year they’re learning about trade-offs as they come face to face with the new realities of ( Obamacare era ) health care. A few workers say they’re getting a great deal, but most have a severe case of sticker shock.
...

The news was presented at the company’s annual benefits meeting earlier this month, when employees were told that the ( employer based ) health insurance plan that the auto dealership had provided its workers was canceled because it doesn’t comply with the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare.

Rather than officially sponsor a new policy, the company -- voted one of the 100 best car dealerships to work for in the country last year -- will instead provide its employees with $2,400 apiece to buy their own insurance, or to pocket and pay the new federal penalty if they elect to go without it.

small businesses, part of what’s known in the industry as the “small group market,” are used to seeing health insurance premiums climb about 10 percent a year, but it’s never before been this dramatic. For Extreme Dodge to have kept deductibles and out-of-pocket costs at last year’s levels, he said, would have cost the dealership almost 50 percent more than last year.

Harp says what is happening at this dealership is representative of the other small businesses he deals with. Businesses with 50 or fewer employees currently provide health insurance to about 17 million U.S. workers, according to the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.

He said the biggest surprise to him in how the law impacts small business clients is “how many people are losers versus winners. … There are some people who do come out ahead, but I would say the overwhelming majority, they’re paying much higher rates and they have lower benefits.”

Some small businesses have been able to extend their current policies and delay the deadline for complying with the new law until sometime next year.

Losers are all Participating in new group Plan - to minimize losses

New Group Plan - expected to cost more next year

Because younger, healthier winners - not participating

and, more importantly, the winners subsidies and stipends not participating


Losers Are:

Twenty-six of the dealership's workers had been covered this year under the old company plan ( employer traditional group plan ). Twenty-one have now decided to go with the new ( Obamacare compliant non-employer based, non-exchange based group plan ) group plan recommended by the company for next year, though they realize that they face sharply higher out-of-pocket costs ( under the new Obama-care compliant group plan that was recommended to them )...

Their deductibles will go from $1,125 this year to $3,000 next year, and maximum out-of-pocket costs jump from $2,250 to $6,350. And for families, those numbers double: to a $6,000 deductible and $12,700 out-of-pocket maximum.

Beyond higher out-of-pocket costs, some workers at the dealership face higher premiums ( under the new Obama-Care compliant group plan that was recommended to them) . Premiums vary because of age ... ( unlike traditional employer group plans ). Some end up paying slightly less or about the same for premiums. But older workers ... pay significantly more.

Beyond higher out-of-pocket costs, some workers at the dealership face higher premiums ( under the new Obama-Care compliant group plan that was recommended to them). Premiums vary because of ... family size ( unlike traditional employer group plans ). Some (single parents, very young parents, or very small families) end up paying slightly less or about the same for premiums. ... workers with ( larger ) families pay significantly more.

Among the hardest hit is Campbell, a salesman with a wife and three young children, all of whom are active in athletics. The premium payments currently deducted weekly from his paycheck will increase ( from $624 to $957 a month, or increase weekly by ) $77 per week. ( All for a policy where the deductibles and also the maximum annual out of pockets double/triple ) “That’s a huge part of the budget,” he ( Campbell ) said. “We feel betrayed, lied to, and we're pissed off.”

Winners are not Participating in the new group Plan with the losers

Winners Are:

A handful of the Extreme Dodge workers came out winners -- mostly low-wage earners ( and younger and healthier employees ) who qualify for subsidies and therefore pay very little for insurance.

The biggest winner is Brandon Chisholm, a detailer with two daughters, who will get health insurance ( through the Obama-care exchange as required to receive a subsidy ) ... will have to pay virtually nothing for it because he qualifies for a big government subsidy. That means he can bank the ( 2,400 dollar a year ) $200 a month the company is giving workers to replace the health insurance it previously provided.

( Brandon never participated in the previous dealership sponsored employer based group policy - but he will still get the $2,400 dollar stipend the company would have contributed if he did participate ).

Four younger ( healthier ) workers ( who had previously participated in the employer group plan ) opted not to sign up for any health insurance at all , according to a company official. ( Instead they will pocket the $2,400 stipend the company provides them )

Losers are all Participating in new group Plan - to minimize losses

New Group Plan - expected to cost more next year

Because younger, healthier winners - not participating

and, more importantly, the winners subsidies and stipends not participating

http://investigations.nbcnews.com/_news ... -offs?lite

[aedens]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1921831 ... ore_button

I liked the view he had but check the first comment section if you have time.
thread note: non-zero beta function tells us that the classical scale invariance is anomalous.
Anyways a div table http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=MVO&a=0 ... f=2013&g=v

And we we left off earlier the term is used to imply that a system satisfies the ergodic hypothesis some ignore for ante reasons.
Back to the earlier renormalization group thought for those who remember some moved to a coordinate grid prior to a special
conformal transformation and render the same grid after a special conformal transformation..
Most leave alot paper only these days indeed. Pay to decay, or constant scaling factor some follow.

[aedens]

http://www.americanprogress.org/about/s ... -zeke/bio/ Here it is RC as we noted in there Fabian rabble and LSE wet dreams on the road to serfdom.

Puerto Rico - Low Income Taxpayer Clinics (LITCs) The "blueprint " just as before on the sticky wages forumed as was our area was also before. Welcome to what we seen when we watched countless who lost half benefits and one third wages as the taxpayer blindly subsidized the blue prints of plant closing.

Locals note: They are fleeing Puerto Rico for the same reason that everyone else is - decades of dependence on US welfare has destroyed the island's economy and culture. Only criminals and the poor are seen on most streets. This is what "social programs" accomplish.

Hopefully the taxpayer can flush out this refuse and balance per capita with sanitys since we needed sane tort reform and catastrophic coverages
since medical bankruptsy and brain dead immigration policy has decimated the cost structures for gerrymandering. Like we just noted 130 very highly trained medical people just got wiped out locally. The wrecking ball arbiters can and do exist plus managers must mantain budgets unlike the morons sent to the swamp as these creatures in the beltway swamp called bureaucratic government bleed us pale as sign and then read the bill need to be fired. As for the kill switch notes we had pegged early, we took our lumps from you retards and political dullards since we knew better as we sipped our tea in patience and caring for others actual community needs called work. Red and Blue does not exist in discussions past the welcome mat which is still open to all thinking souls in forbearance since as reminded they will be known by the fruit they bear.

Dimmcrats at work since 1993 and from 1963 we will get then #*&^%$ voting for us for 200 years and they HAVE no reply other than the other arbiters who we already know as red crayons with the blue crayons. Taxpayers are just as I was until 1979 as I watched these locusts and took the time to understand what was and is. As for those who understand bootleggers and babtist observations the branches of government must balance since the wasting is unabated. The best government is the one chained and muzzled and of the least amount simply imagined. Simply put as long ago so goes the morals so does a nation. The enclaves are simply gaming all and as the music stop all over again so who truly wins. I can think of 130 recently who cover all groups who will joing the the rising tide of serfs unless providence intercedes and we are coldy reminded to help yourself understand since we see the seasons and not the signs. Some have simply planned ahead for some years and hope endures more wake up to the nature of true economy. IMO

I think Vlad INC. and the thinking arc countrys as we know them understand clear enough for now ever since the beyond massive screw up when the swamp parked some things on border that did not need to be there anyway. The Bear watched the numb skulls dance as they knew they would. I think disappointment on other levels of relationships are clear enough for open navigational recourses to work hopefully in civilizations better nature.
As we seen from decades past they had no issue tossing million under the bus in the middle east and I still cannot wrap my head around that when I read it long ago. It still passes through me as like the artic front that just moved in today and the news we see today. Others would convey the script runs pure so why question affairs as they course. I think we already know that answer. http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... ket-reaper

[aedens]

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/12/22/busin ... stock.html

I remember a few things on birds.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/32267/ ... rket-bears

I do not wish to see actual hair on fire or arms ripped in a bear market my self either.
Just to remember P/E then.....

http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=14

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.investorvillage.com/uploads/ ... leBoom.pdf

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... mic-crisis
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/20 ... ying-power

The 3 economic unknowns here are: pricing of oil and natural gas (they need to be higher), cost of debt (an interest rate spike would be problematic but we know it is possible), and lagging wages (which don't keep up with extraction costs) to pay for the cost of oil and natural gas, which need to be higher. These articles, to my surprise, tackle the first 2 issues and many others head on.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... -recession

Dr. Miller, who prepared annual in-house projections of future oil supply for BP from 2000 to 2007...

[aedens]

http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?G ... io+Gabelli
http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?G ... ussman&p=1

weighting is interesting also note Q/Q Turnover ratios of them.....

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Atm-8s8UWE4

The 13 Triggers for the Next Financial Crisis by Harry Dent
Posted September 10, 2013

This is my cliff notes version.

Starting to see signs of a top. Fed tapering will have an impact but the markets have already reacted to that. The big impacts from tapering will come a few months down the road. The question is what will be the trigger, like subprime in 2008. In 2008, four states triggered a worldwide crisis because debt was overstretched and slowing demographics put strain on that debt.

01. Southern Europe is still in a Depression. Unemployment is out of control.
02. Greece needing a new bailout. The bailout was supposed to last until 2020 and they already need another bailout. How much can they keep doing this before realizing you can't turn these countries around. They are uncompetitive and have bad demographics.
03. Key trigger, most important. Spain blowing up. Real estate prices are still going down and bad loans are still going up. Too big to bail out. Likely major trigger in Europe.
04. Commodity prices are going down, emerging countries export these things and they get into trouble. Emerging market stocks keep going down.
05. This creates a vicious cycle with China. China now exports more to emerging countries than they do to developing. If their exports to emerging countries go down they buy less commodities and it's a vicious cycle.
06. China. The greatest real estate bubble in the world. Shadow banking system is growing beyond the government. China has moved 2-300 million people just in the last decade from rural areas to urban areas. Highly unskilled people with very tentative jobs. They can't even afford apartments there. If the economy slows down all of these people will be the first to lose their jobs and they will go back to rural areas. The excess housing because there is so much speculation and overbuilding will cause a collapse of housing and cities to empty. This is the worst thing that can happen and will be the biggest disaster of our lifetime.
07. US real estate recovery is bogus, mostly speculators. As house prices go up that looks less attractive to renters and as interest rates go up it hurts the new buyers even more.
08. Interest rates go up.
09. 40% of earnings gains have come from stock buybacks. With interest rates going up, this will slow.
10. Earnings accelerated with all this stimulus. Now they are decelerating.
11. In July, durable goods and new home sales dropped sharply unexpectedly. We've been looking for this with rising rates and speculators backing off. This is not a trend yet but if this continues this is the beginning of the end.
12. The Fed eventually gets checkmated with all this stimulus. They're at the point now, and the markets know this, that if the economy gets a little bit too good they're going to have to taper and back off the stimulus and we know the stock market and economy will dive within 6-12 months of that. But on the flip side if the economy doesn't show improvement it is showing that the stimulus is losing its impact and all stimulus does. Every time there is a QE we get 3-4 quarters growth and then it slows down near zero and they have to do the next stimulus, so this is another sign.
13. The Middle East. We're seeing signs of civil wars everywhere.

PE ratios based on longer term earnings are as high as they've ever been aside from 2000 to 2002. These are the same kind of valuations we had in late 2007. Same kind of good but not great growth. So we're looking for triggers and we see them building.