Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.safehaven.com/article/32267/ ... rket-bears

I do not wish to see actual hair on fire or arms ripped in a bear market my self either.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMtry9OdJx8

Marc Faber So Many Warning Signs Of Stock Bubble It's Unbelievable

This video was only interesting in light of reading your link above. She challenged Faber a bit and said you've been looking for a crash for a year. What are your reasons for continuing to expect a crash? Faber basically said because everyone is now bullish. They were all bearish at the 2009 low and now they are all bullish.

In my opinion, that's only right in the sense of hitting the right side of the barn. When converted bears and bulls both get on the same side of the boat they can all make money for a little while. As for me, I go on doing the same thing because I agree more with the kind of stuff Dent is saying, which hasn't really changed in a long time. I vowed a long time ago not to get sucked in no matter what because if I do that will be near the top and I think we are just about there. I went 25% short the ES at the close today after pulling out for a 5 point loss and shorting again 5.5 points higher. That's in spite of saying the market can run 16-24 more days and another 8-12% from the last low if this is a final blowoff. Who really knows? But it is easier to know what it will do for the next 2 hours once it builds up a head of steam. Kind of like once a geyser blows its cork if you know that geyser you know about how long it will last. They don't do what they did this morning without keeping at it all day. Then after that it's a new day and there is some time for something to trigger. I think Dent forgot Fukushima and that one is at the top of my list.

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?G ... io+Gabelli
http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?G ... ussman&p=1

weighting is interesting also note Q/Q Turnover ratios of them.....

I think when someone is on the wrong side of the market they turn their portfolio or trades over a lot more. I talked above about being wrong and turning everything over today for 100% turnover in a day basically. But let's say I was right and the market tanked. I that case I would sit with whatever I had and maybe add. Then if I continued to be right I would do nothing more for a long time.

[aedens]

http://www.occupycorporatism.com/tepco- ... lting-now/

[aedens]

http://www.occupycorporatism.com/will-o ... populists/

Outsourcing, which was endorsed by NAFTA over a decade ago, would be enhanced under TPP, where manipulation of governments by mega-corporations could ensure profit margins increase exponentially.

Within TPP is an UN-like tribunal of attorneys that would govern legal disputes, enforce through international judgment complaints regarding governmental regulations and oversee adherence to corporate operations despite independent right of sovereign nations under international mandate.

Wake up

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.occupycorporatism.com/tepco- ... lting-now/

Just my thoughts, having said this is at the top of my list of triggers. Trigger may or may not be the right word. It may be strictly correct for Dent not to classify it as a trigger but he should have at least mentioned Fukushima and the distinction. Let's hypothesize that it is going critical now. Judging from history, TEPCO and the Japanese government may not even know it's going critical. And if they do know or suspect it is, they will lie about it. The two words that sum up the previous two sentences are incompetence and corruption, a disease that in my opinion affects every large corporate and governmental organization in the Western world.

We know that it took decades after Three Mile Island (Metropolitan Edison), Bhopal (Union Carbide), and to a lesser extent Love Canal (Hooker Chemical) to tell the horrifying tales of governmental and corporate incompetence and corruption. We can asume from a generational standpoint that with Generation X running the show things are monumentally worse, particularly in these specific kinds of situations. Anybody is capable of ripping people off or at least condoning it. The Boomers at least condoned it and they were in charge. But when it comes to matters that can involve the deaths of millions of people, Generation X or the Nomad generation in general has stood out as being the only generation that is callous and lethal. Moving forward in time, the Gulf Oil Spill (BP), though relatively minor, demonstrated a degree of incompetence and corruption that the earlier industrial accidents did not, in my opinion, as previously discussed, where BP had gone the route of deliberately converting themselves to financial operators at the expense of technical competence (and after having done so had been caught manipulating the propane market). Japan is in an advanced state of demographic and financial decay, maybe one or two decades more advanced than the US or Western Europe. After the Fukushima disaster hit, the possibility that Japan might artificially stimulate its economy through the rebuilding process, then crash it when the stimulus was removed, was discussed here. Now we see that, almost 3 years later, no rebuilding has taken place, all 52 nuclear reactors in the country are shut down, TEPCO and the Japanese government are too incompetent and corrupt to clean up and decommission the damaged plants (as are all of Japan's allies), and the only stimulus being put forth is fake monetary stimulus. If the situation only remains chronic and the world is lucky enough that it doesn't go critical via another earthquake or by some other disaster scenario, the reponse so far is a recipe for a slower but more certain long term failure of the Japanese and world economy. Absent a meltdown scenario, Fukushima is a lot like Obamacare in the sense that it can eventually be the straw that breaks the camel's back after decades of abuse.


https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity ... bmode=list&=
Line No. 001; potassium iodide tablet, 65mg, unit dose package of 20s; 700,000 packages (of 20s). Delivery is required on or before February 1, 2014.
http://www.dhhs.nh.gov/dphs/radiological/ki.htm
Appears to be part of an existing program not related to anything involving Fukushima.

[Higgenbotham]

It's pretty much unanimous that the stock market will head to higher highs in 2014. Odds favor that but it's not always the case.

In 1953, 1977 and 2008, after a few good years, stocks made their high of the year on the second session of 1953 and on the opening sessions of 1977 and 2008.

The January 5, 1953 high was the high after the rise from the June 1949 low and it held until early 1954.

The absolute high of the 1974 to 1976 advance in the Dow wasn't on December 31, 1976 but it was pretty close, within 10 points of the high (Dow 1014).

By 2008, the stock market had already been heading down for almost 3 months and sold off right from the opening session of 2008.

The absolute high of the bubble in Tokyo was December 29, 1989.

The stock market has made significant highs about 24 years apart - 1929, 1953, 1977 and 2000. It's been 24 years from the top of the gigantic bubble in Tokyo. I doubt this is a meaningful observation; at least, I know no theoretical reason a cycle would be 24 years.

[Higgenbotham]

24 Year Cycle?

April 1942 Major Low
February 1966 Major high
October 1990 Low
2014?

Maybe there's something to it.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40008.html

[aedens]

Outstanding comments on affairs H as few stood firm to resolve pressing issues. On a global scale we lost 26 men in one year in our small association of free men as process safety management was promulgated and still they resisted as internalized circles for the simple need of basic regulation. More called it unwarranted as sectors off shored with taxpayers future claim to labor called debt later distilled to best practice which is wrapped in a layer of many pretenses in technological and co opted efficiency of gains. Segments of a economy with the guise of free markets which have never walked with reality for over a century as the wall fell. It is impossible to convey and suggest what we do know as they grope into the future few ever understood then also. Just as before as always the situation will suggest segments are unable or flexible enough to be reachable. Simply put we had to fail, and did so to appear reconstructed as a proper solutions of sector to survive. I can list multiple disconnects to factional inflicted venerabilities and issues of this last iteration forwarded as percentages of change that was welcomed as other efforts have fell as some opinions from old cloud accounts. Painful steps others have made and for some the fact it took decades to escape into something they may never fathom called time and the indifferences to what effectiveness going forward ever was anyways. I consider today again the fact since Government pay was doubled the Conduit to and from Business as a revolving door that needs to be severed. As we know the Senate has been relegated for decades to local affairs and the true issue is the bureaucratized conduit unabated. When they sign to see what is in Legislative Bill indeed the hour is plainly late to thinking people of a Republic. When the Supreme Court justice has to halt birth control mandate of the Affordable Care Act or draconian fines ensue or else they abandon their religious convictions the Executive branch is beyond and for that matter has been beyond the scope of any polite words to describe this as a Nation. It shows the very nature and intent as a blue and red crayon pagan death cult. Simply put they are as others governments already are.

I checked the futures contract LNG and you conveyed what I seen also on multiple levels of those energy constructs also. Also have noted e peens on what balance sheets should appear to be
and the factional disconnects of life at the margin and net working capital. I will leave it a DCF for now and RSI with ROC and as noted before 200 MA regards for now. I will stick to light switch baskets and consider small positions in others segments as warranted. Leverage is not my friend not should it be in granular analysis going forward I feel. My anecdotal thought is the markets is stirring up products rendered to dust and thus dust explosions in select segments as we have already noted. If I read another risk definitions in a winners and losers rent seeking economy it hits he round file.

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockbullbear.pdf

[aedens]

The English Common Law is a system of law that is based on court precedent. Laws and statutes are interpreted, and the ruling of one judge may influence or even control the ruling of another judge.

The Code Napoleon takes the civilian law approach. Civilian law is based on scholarly research and the drafting of legal code which is passed into law by the legislative branch. It is then the judge's job to interpret that intent more than to follow judicial precedent.

Erosion rate and no man status. Confidence and Jevons Paradox