Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Ukraine&src=hash

Europe’s new battlefield

I'm wondering how bad this is going to get. The cycle of violence that hits about every 220 years has been held off for a few years. Roughly 1350 to 1570 to 1790 is what I think we are looking at here. These would be the really severe incidents of mob violence which result in massive deaths. At least that's what I'm thinking can be coming over the horizon. I'm wondering if a repeat of 1571 is in the cards. Some of our recent discussion reminds me of comments from last August.

Also I would reiterate that when the periphery is looted out and the money pissed away at the center I dont know how this doesn't happen circa 1351, 1571 or 1789. But this time the looting is on an absolutely massive and worldwide scale, there's the mobility factor whereby humans can mobilize and move much more quickly and easily, and there are 7 billion versus maybe a few hundred million.

The biggest error in my thinking was that I did not believe Germany would play along until 2013 or later. Or that a lot of other key players would play along. Almost everybody has been very agreeable and civil for far longer than seemed plausible to me. In the good old USA, not even an assassination or a riot Watts or LA style. And the people are much worse off today. Is it because big brother is watching? Or is it because people understand what such a thing could trigger?

It's totally beyond my ability to comprehend why this has happened. I guess soon we will see what the consequences are for all the children who played so nicely together for so long.

It's possible that once things get rolling, massive violence will erupt "all at once". History shows this is not uncommon and I've posted examples previously.

[aedens]

Coin flip H on the feeds I see. It is a culture issue and no amount of slogans and propaganda will change this sick man syndrome.
Rumors of this, that, and another are already written also by more quality sources before us anyways.
No clue on which way the cork is pointing when it pops out of this bottle.

thread: http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

[Higgenbotham]

Moscow took over the Ukraine and starved (basically executed by starvation) 7 million Ukrainians in the 1930s. So that's what I see as the basic underlying driver of any violence that may occur. An eye for an eye would be a lot of eyes. 14 million and the way Gen X usually figures it is you want to multiply by at least 2-3 to get your just payback. Gen X believes in getting compound interest. I knew an Xer who said when he gets ripped off he figures the damage he wants to do to compensate should be 10 fold. He picked a guy up and threw him down the stairs for stealing a cassette tape.

The Holodomor (Ukrainian: Голодомор, "Extermination by hunger" or "Hunger-extermination"; derived from 'Морити голодом', "Killing by Starvation" was a man-made famine in the Ukrainian SSR in 1932 and 1933. During the famine, which is also known as the "Terror-Famine in Ukraine" and "Famine-Genocide in Ukraine", millions of citizens of Ukrainian SSR, the majority of whom were Ukrainians, died of starvation in a peacetime catastrophe unprecedented in the history of Ukraine. Since 2006, the Holodomor has been recognized by Ukraine and several other countries as a genocide of the Ukrainian people.

According to the decision of Kyiv Appellation Court, the demographic losses due to the famine amounted to 10 million, with 3.9 million famine deaths, and a 6.1 million birth deficit.

Gen X multiplying by 2-3 again.

Scholars disagree on the relative importance of natural factors and bad economic policies as causes of the famine and the degree to which the destruction of the Ukrainian peasantry was premeditated on the part of Joseph Stalin.

Doesn't matter what scholars think. All that matters is what the folks think who are going to get their revenge.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

[at99sy]

The Holodomor and Ukraine i general are fascinating topics. Ukraine had a large and devoted membership in the NAZI party and many of its citizens aided the "removal" of its then large Jewish population. The Soviets crafted the starvation of the Kulaks, in order to provide food for the true Soviets. The Ukrainians were being punished for daring to resist the collectivism orders of the Soviets. All of their harvest were confiscated and nothing was left. The starvation was blamed on poor harvests and droughts. This in partly true as the Soviets demanded certain quotas of the harvest as tribute and these quotas were raised to levels impossible to meet. End result was the removal of everything edible from the regions without a Russian population majority.

Very much like the Potato famine in Ireland. The Irish had grown plenty of food, only it was ALL sent to England. The punishment was death for any Irish who was seen or simply accused of eating the English food. Barges full of food left Ireland daily loaded down with food the Irish were not allowed to eat. Starving your enemy is far more efficient than fighting them.

http://www.thenewamerican.com/culture/h ... in-ukraine

sy

[Higgenbotham]

Taper versus No Taper...

...and how the market reacted to the decision. If the 2 previous incidents are followed, the market would be due to reach a high about now.

I won't try to explain why the market reacted this way because what do I know, really? But it did what it did, and so far it's been remarkably consistent in its reaction.

One thing that does come to mind. FInding what the "herd" finds almost never works. Finding what they don't find at least has half a chance, and they haven't found this. When I think I've thought of everything, I know I had better think harder.

TAPER VERSUS NO TAPER.gif (31.04 KiB) Viewed 3166 times

[John]

> I'm wondering how bad this is going to get. The cycle of violence
> that hits about every 220 years has been held off for a few years.
> Roughly 1350 to 1570 to 1790 is what I think we are looking at
> here. These would be the really severe incidents of mob violence
> which result in massive deaths. At least that's what I'm thinking
> can be coming over the horizon. I'm wondering if a repeat of 1571
> is in the cards. Some of our recent discussion reminds me of
> comments from last August.

Weren't the 30 Years War and the War of the Spanish Succession just as
bad?

Note: 220 = 3 * 73.

John

[Higgenbotham]

> I'm wondering how bad this is going to get. The cycle of violence
> that hits about every 220 years has been held off for a few years.
> Roughly 1350 to 1570 to 1790 is what I think we are looking at
> here. These would be the really severe incidents of mob violence
> which result in massive deaths. At least that's what I'm thinking
> can be coming over the horizon. I'm wondering if a repeat of 1571
> is in the cards. Some of our recent discussion reminds me of
> comments from last August.

Weren't the 30 Years War and the War of the Spanish Succession just as
bad?

Note: 220 = 3 * 73.

John

I think in terms of loss of population in the whole of Europe the 30 years war was a lot worse. My thought has been spontaneous mob violence that erupted in various places around those times. We seems to be on that cycle again. Maybe like you indicated, it happens every third turn of the wheel. As we've also discussed, the leaders seem very hesitant to go to war on the normal cycle. As well, they are very cozy with each other, at the expense of their populations. So mob violence might be how it manifests. Trevor had noted that when the Crimean Tatars looted and burned Moscow to the ground in 1571, that was thought to be part of an organized war. I would grant that is true, but if something similar happens now, it will be called something war related, most likely. The slaughter of several thousands of Huguenots also occurred around that time. If the Russian government slaughters the protestors, maybe that would be considered just a massacre and not part of a war.

[Higgenbotham]

With violence growing in Ukraine, and the country becoming increasing lawless and ungovernable, foreign ministers from Poland, France and Germany brokered a Ukraine peace agreement between president Viktor Yanukovych and the leaders of the opposition. Whether the agreement will get fully implemented remains to be seen, and it leaves Yanukovych in power, at least for the time being, in defiance of the key demand of the opposition that he step down. Instead, the agreement calls for new elections by December, which opposition leaders say is far too late. However, the opposition signed because European leaders warned them that the alternative was martial law.

From page 7, "Authorities were alarmed at the harrowing plans the group laid - sabotage against dams, water supplies, utility and communications lines - all designed to transform American cities into Beirut. They stopped Mathews only four months short of attempting the shutdown of a major US city through terrorism."

"The Order" understood the logistics of how to combat modern day authorities. "Authorities were alarmed" is an absolutely key phrase - you bet they were.

Occupy Wall Street and the other more recent protest groups haven't tried to strike the control infrastructure and mechanisms of the authorities, so are destined to fail in my opinion, until they do understand this. "The Order" understood this from the start. From the book, "Around noon on Monday, April 23, the crew headed north on the freeway to Northgate. As they passed through downtown Seattle, Kemp tosed boxes of roofing nails onto the highway where it passes through the freeway park underpass, hoping to create a massive traffic jam caused by flat tires to add to the confusion." They then went on to rob an armored truck of $230,000 in cash to finance further operations. If the opposition in the Ukraine or anywhere else is to have success they will need to anticipate and dismantle the control mechanisms of the authorities beforehand. Another option they would have is to bring to the table solid evidence that they are capable of doing so in multiple ways, revealing only one way and then implementing it immediately. Such as, "If you don't agree to what we are demanding, the power grid in central Kiev is going to go down for an hour. If you continue to fail to understand what we are demanding it is going to go down and never come back up." This is how you have to talk to psychopaths in order to get them to take you seriously. As time goes on, this is likely how the game is going to be played.

[John]

I don't know why you're quoting me. After today's events, there's
barely a bit of it that's still true.

[Higgenbotham]

I don't know why you're quoting me. After today's events, there's
barely a bit of it that's still true.

I wasn't aware the President had vacated his residence in Kiev and has established himself in eastern Ukraine. What did the opposition do to force this change? Have you found any news that indicates that? The news I am reading says that he left but doesn't say why or what changed in the past 12 hours.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/world ... world&_r=0