21-Feb-14 World View -- World fears of China's military

[Guest]

I think you fail to understand ho emotional Asians can be (even he apparently emotionless Japanese). I think this is where things will get tricky. China seizes the Senkaku Islands and Japan panics. Korea panics. Taiwan panics. Vietnam Panics...Emotions run high. Anger. Then people will have to decide if they want to be free or be kowtow to the Chinese. They will choose to fight. Perhaps you don't realize how other Asians look down on mainlanders?

[Reality Check]

I think you fail to understand ho emotional Asians can be (even he apparently emotionless Japanese). I think this is where things will get tricky. China seizes the Senkaku Islands and Japan panics. Korea panics. Taiwan panics. Vietnam Panics...Emotions run high. Anger. Then people will have to decide if they want to be free or be kowtow to the Chinese. They will choose to fight. Perhaps you don't realize how other Asians look down on mainlanders?

My crystal ball is not that great. The obvious question is, what does it mean to choose to fight ?

Take back the islands ? Attack the Chinese mainland ? Capture Chinese merchant ships on the high seas away from China ?

Without the help of the U.S. what could they realistically do ?

Capturing Chinese merchant ships on the High Seas away from China appears to be the easiest response.

Taking back the islands and attacking the mainland seem to have more risk of losing your fleet if you are Japan, Korea or Vietnam...

[Guest]

A lot of these islands are right off the coast of these rival nations. The Chinese would have to engage all of these countries. I doubt they would sit quietly while China hopscotched country to country attacking occupying everything. The Chinese are the ones far away from the mainland.

And with resources at stake, these conflicts would be ones of national survival. A nation stripped of its fish stocks, oil, etc. would die.

What could they Chinese do if South Korea or Japan pushed back? Nuke them? I think the South Koreans, Japanese, etc. are taking all of these things into account.

Asians are extremely nationalistic. I have lived all over the world, and I have spent half my life in Asia. I have never seen people as nationalistic as Asians. People will be fighting their children's future. Being enslaved to the mainland Chinese would worse than death for most.

China has already boxed itself in.

[gerald]

A lot of these islands are right off the coast of these rival nations. The Chinese would have to engage all of these countries. I doubt they would sit quietly while China hopscotched country to country attacking occupying everything. The Chinese are the ones far away from the mainland.

And with resources at stake, these conflicts would be ones of national survival. A nation stripped of its fish stocks, oil, etc. would die.

What could they Chinese do if South Korea or Japan pushed back? Nuke them? I think the South Koreans, Japanese, etc. are taking all of these things into account.

Asians are extremely nationalistic. I have lived all over the world, and I have spent half my life in Asia. I have never seen people as nationalistic as Asians. People ill be fighting their children's future. Being enslaved to the mainland Chinese would worse than death for most.

China has already boxed itself in.

It seems as though China is trying to do what it did before in its history. Such as when it "looted" the teak forests of Vietnam in the 1400's.

Things like that do get people riled up.

[Reality Check]

A lot of these islands are right off the coast of these rival nations. The Chinese would have to engage all of these countries. I doubt they would sit quietly while China hopscotched country to country attacking occupying everything.

And yet, that is exactly what has been happening. China already occupied most of the Islands right off the Vietnam coast. The Island China took from the Philippines recently was accepted by both The Philippine Islands and the United States.

The new military challenge zone created by China in the East China Sea includes the Japanese island inside of it. The United States has accepted that.

China has created a new province ( Chinese political subdivision ) with it's capital in the South West corner of the South China sea.

China has a real blue water navy now, and long range bombers carrying modern anti-ship missiles.

Vietnam is going to attack the Chinese navy in the South China sea with Vietnam's navy in the South China sea ?

The Philippines ?

Malaysia ?

Singapore ?

Being riled up, is different than fighting a symmetrical war on terms the other side will win.

[gerald]

the strong crush the weak

[Guest]

The Chinese navy might not be as good as it pretends (or even itself believes). Japan and Korea have state of the art militaries. The average Japanese and Korean soldier is a fairly well educated and well trained soldier. Can the same be said of Chinese recruits? How good are China's submarines and weapon systems? Compare those systems to the what the Japanese and Koreans have. How do they really stack up? I think you overestimating China's capabilities. (Yeah, yeah, I know. Maybe I'm underestimating the Reds...)

What do you suggest? The rest of Asia just surrender? Not everyone in Asia is afraid to die. Not everyone in Asia wants their children to live at any cost-including them having to live as slaves.

What if these countries go nuclear? What will China do then?

Has anyone here actually been to China? I have. It's a train wreck. (On every level.) Water you can't drink. Air you can't breathe. Food you can't eat. Medication you can't trust. Police you don't even bother to call. Civil servants who just want to steal everything you have. And a judicial system that is nothing but a façade. There aren't enough women for the shrinking male population to marry. The list goes on.

[NoOneImportant]

Guest wrote:

The Chinese navy might not be as good as it pretends (or even itself believes). Japan and Korea have state of the art militaries. The average Japanese and Korean soldier is a fairly well educated and well trained soldier. Can the same be said of Chinese recruits? How good are China's submarines and weapon systems? Compare those systems to the what the Japanese and Koreans have. How do they really stack up? I think you overestimating China's capabilities. (Yeah, yeah, I know. Maybe I'm underestimating the Reds...)...

...Has anyone here actually been to China? I have. It's a train wreck. (On every level.) Water you can't drink. Air you can't breathe. Food you can't eat. Medication you can't trust. Police you don't even bother to call. Civil servants who just want to steal everything you have. And a judicial system that is nothing but a façade. There aren't enough women for the shrinking male population to marry. The list goes on.

All true, but there are 1.3 billion of them. To get a feel for the problem visualize, if you will, the singularly unimpressive subterranean termite - something so insignificant should present little to no problem, correct? While individually the termite is not all that impressive, put twenty or thirty thousand of them together, and any home owner has a real problem.

Another analogy might be the AK47 vs the AR15. There is little quality comparison between the two; one is polished, machined, and accurate, the other is made of stamped metal, with loose tolerances, but it fires all day, every day, rain, or shine, wet or dry, dirty or clean.

To underestimate an effective Chinese threat is a mistake. All of the issues you cited are reasons for the Chinese to look outward so that they might redirect internal discontent against an enemy of their making. The Chinese spend more for internal security than they do for defense. China's external policy of confronting its neighbors is as much about the internal survival of their communist system, as it is about the acquisition of land.

China has an enormous demographic male/female problem - they will realize, because of their one child policy, a 60 million female deficit over the upcoming decade, or two. That translates into 60 million men with no effective marriageable women - 60 million Chinese men with no hope of ever being able to wed, or procreate - that is a serious internal Chinese problem that external combat may "fix."

[gerald]

The Chinese navy might not be as good as it pretends (or even itself believes). Japan and Korea have state of the art militaries. The average Japanese and Korean soldier is a fairly well educated and well trained soldier. Can the same be said of Chinese recruits? How good are China's submarines and weapon systems? Compare those systems to the what the Japanese and Koreans have. How do they really stack up? I think you overestimating China's capabilities. (Yeah, yeah, I know. Maybe I'm underestimating the Reds...)

What do you suggest? The rest of Asia just surrender? Not everyone in Asia is afraid to die. Not everyone in Asia wants their children to live at any cost-including them having to live as slaves.

What if these countries go nuclear? What will China do then?

Has anyone here actually been to China? I have. It's a train wreck. (On every level.) Water you can't drink. Air you can't breathe. Food you can't eat. Medication you can't trust. Police you don't even bother to call. Civil servants who just want to steal everything you have. And a judicial system that is nothing but a façade. There aren't enough women for the shrinking male population to marry. The list goes on.

I have been to China, a lot of what you say is true, and add, I have seen things built and then not maintained, such as the museum of historic terracotta warriors. It is like after the museum was built they never bothered to keep it clean. It is like a filthy dirty pit. And a major tourist attraction. Or a cave with beautiful formations, given to one connected, and milked for all it is worth because he has a limited amount of time on his concession. And by the end of the concession the cave will have been destroyed. I told the guide about the inappropriate management of the cave, and he said, yea we know but we have to get our money out. -- yes they have problems, and so do we.
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It has been said, the winner of a war is the one who makes the fewest mistakes,------hmmmmmmm