Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Will increase short into march 5

I'm looking at March 6 next, so basic agreement there. Perhaps a closing high March 5 with intraday high and lower close March 6.

[aedens]

Maybe H, but I also feel the nature of things simply do not really not add up so I do not feel it going that way looking deeper inside since
Russ will beat his girl friend and take best items of the apartment.

14. Question motives. Twist or amplify any fact which could so taken to imply that the opponent operates out of a hidden personal agenda or other bias.
This avoids discussing issues and forces the accuser on the defensive.

One of those days indeed. I apply rule 14 in a plural sense also H. The zones have never been a actual question since the owners manual script
was left long ago for another thing to regard noted here also.

[Higgenbotham]

Maybe H, but I also feel the nature of things simply do not really not add up so I do not feel it going that way looking deeper inside since Russ will beat his girl friend and take best items of the apartment.

I think I get the gist of your statement but there's a way around that, which shows "the other H" had it basically right when he said stocks would top at the turn of the year, but only in terms of real money. Therefore, the way around that is to go short the S&P 500 or the Dow and long the gold in equal dollar amounts. The payout on that is about 10% since the start of the year while trying to short in terms of fiat has been a dead end. Do you think this will continue to work?

S&P 500 GOLD RATIO.png (11.62 KiB) Viewed 2717 times

DOW GOLD RATIO.png (11.28 KiB) Viewed 2715 times

[Higgenbotham]

With the QEs, many are wondering why stocks rose for the past 3 years in terms of gold. I think it's because the US is producing more of its own oil and therefore exporting fewer dollars to the oil producing nations, who may then convert those dollars to gold. What the ratio peaking out says about the fracking boom I am not knowledgable enough in that area to know but it may say the boom is slowing enough that it is no longer giving a tailwind to stocks in terms of real money, only in terms of fiat. That would tell me the US economy is not in as good a shape as some seem to think. The data hasn't really been that great but with loads of fiat to throw into stocks people are pretending in my opinion. With the stocks to gold ratios turning down, trying to analyze cycles and prices in terms of fiat may be bogus analysis. We may only be aiming at secondary highs, not real highs.

[Higgenbotham]

This got me to thinking because the DOW GOLD ratio peaked in 1999 before the stock market peaked. Digging in a little further, it peaked in late August 1999 while stocks didn't peak until the first quarter of 2000. About a 6 month lag time, approximately. The various averages peaked on different days between January and March of the first quarter of 2000.

1999 DOW GOLD RATIO.png (9.65 KiB) Viewed 2712 times

[Higgenbotham]

The nearby peak of the DOW GOLD ratio in 2007 was mid July while stocks peaked in mid October. One thing maybe worth mentioning is the current bubble seems more extreme than the 2007 bubble and more like the 2000 bubble. That could mean the lag time between the DOW GOLD ratio peak and the stock market peak is more toward 6 months this time around rather than 3. If such a correlation continues to hold at all. I believe that it will because while the Fed can debase at will, the Fed cannot so easily control the price of real money (gold) relative to debased items.

2007 DOW GOLD RATIO.png (9.15 KiB) Viewed 2710 times

[Higgenbotham]

I ran off the complete set of S&P 500 GOLD ratio charts from 1998 to date. The free site only allows 3 years of data per chart.

It's interesting to blow up this ratio and get a good look at it. The turn of the year peak was less than 1.6. The ratio has been below 1.6 ever since right before the Lehman debacle hit. My thought had been that they would never get the stock market back over the pre-Lehman level but they did it with shameless generation of fiat that will probably ruin the currency and more. However, in terms of real money, they were not able to get it done. That tells me we are likely no better off than just before Lehman hit. And in theory it would be logical to think this is the case, and it would be a natural limit of a bankrupt economy that has not been fixed.

SPX GOLD RATIO.png (9.43 KiB) Viewed 2707 times

2010-2012 SPX GOLD RATIO.png (11.68 KiB) Viewed 2707 times

2007-2009 SPX GOLD RATIO.png (9.86 KiB) Viewed 2707 times

[aedens]

The thought was $1343 peak on second look from initial $1400 and short select baskets as before as
it formed up in the weekly futures that in my view confirmed it. Anyways I went bbep and stayed short
and sold a few long as technical rotations. My main thought was the fib number on gold and a finger in the beasts eye
and not a missing finger I was willing to point at in that day of thought on that wall cycle we are now indeed entering
as discussed already. This moved me to consider, called the market as they demonstrated on close the way they feel is
chosing a way they want to live. To push the GD point they indeed have chosen a way they seem fit to ignore as aggregate.
I am not refering to the actual thought map we consider but they linger in now. As we learned in the seventys
consequences rather than right or wrong is what they cope in and embrace right into the eighties taxpayers blindness of actual
intent malachi martin clearly conveyed bent of mind. To finish that view to covet as I alluded to has a direct response if they
wish to preserve that diminished state of being. The new wave cycle as before is the lingering and induced stress that makes
them have that view to what they truly are. I may look at vnr as a swing or outright long also. Things are shaping up and people
are making some choices in my opinion only that are the spirit of the age in a negative connotation already seen.

[Higgenbotham]

And there’s another problem in the more immediate future, that being the Fed still can’t count to five, raising the prospect of DGR pattern completion discussed on these pages for some time now. You will know this is a distinct probability if the Dow closes next week back above 16,200. If they can pull this off, which will be difficult and is not likely given the factors discussed above, then one should cover any short positions established in this area because the signal they intend to push stocks higher, and precious metals lower, via pure manipulation (and inflation), taking the DGR up to the 233-month exponential moving average (EMA) at 14.5 would be triggered. Of course if they fail in this regard we would have ‘signal failure’, evidenced in the fifth-wave failure in the Dow, and again, some degree of crash over the next two months.

http://news.goldseek.com/CaptainHook/1392058800.php

Interesting that they did lift the Dow over 16,200 along with the S&P 500 to a new high but the S&P 500 Gold ratio barely moved.

“Fed policy risk offers another motive for gold-hoarding in emerging markets (EM),” writes Gave. “If US monetary policy adds to the volatility of EM exchange rates, then residents need to hedge against this—and, as mentioned, their hedging options are limited. This is how we get the bizarre situation where holding gold protects against devaluation and growth/deflationary pressures in the emerging markets.”

Gave’s conclusion is that gold “will keep rising as long as US policy is exporting volatility.”

http://news.goldseek.com/ClifDroke/1393619915.php

[aedens]

True, what they convey. I never abandoned $1400.00 as the point to cover if we consider that in nominal terms.
We backed "i took liberty there" up to $1343.00 as a viable inflection.