Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

The Federal Branch just may find out the State process may just clip some wings sooner than later. Both wings need to pick up their game or the State rights Movements
just may pick up steam and sweep them away. I have no clue and at this point few to listen to for damn sure.

This would be a good outcome. Some states for example are reining in the NSA. Texas is something like the 14th largest economy in the world and has a positive trade balance. No reason Texas and other states shouldn't be able to determine their own future and to know better how to do it. I would dare say they could also do a better job of issuing their own money.

[aedens]

http://www.petrodollarwarfare.com/

[Higgenbotham]

I think today was the end of the 5 year bull market. I'm 50% short and will move to 100% sometime next week if this morning's high in the S&P 500 continues to hold.

https://www.greedometer.com/precision-v ... edometers/
I'm picking up something similar to his "here's what's going to happen" scenario. Except I think the 6-9% and the 20% he mentions can be much more. Doesn't have to be but can be.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-0 ... ing-levels
Fed's Fisher Admits Stocks Are At "Eye-Popping Levels"
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... ogress.png
Stocks are at eye-popping levels because the economy never really recovered and it's not going to recover. The economy didn't follow the top curves in the diagram like some thought it was supposed to.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-0 ... ll-succeed
JPMorgan's Biggest Concern Is That Bitcoin Will Succeed
Reader Comments:
"Shadow economies grow because of price fixing skimming fascist maggots like JP Morgan."
"JPM is not really worried at all...They know their gov't compadres will see to it...That bitcoin fails."
Local virtual currencies are the answer but we're not quite there yet. First the big centralized parasitic bureaucracies like General Electric and JP Morgan will collapse of their own dead weight.

http://patdollard.com/2014/03/anti-obam ... s-polices/
Meet Kesha Rogers, the "bitcoin" candidate of politics who pulled 23% of the vote in a 5 way primary race for US Senator from Texas this week and now advances to the runoff election, with a campaign warchest of $27,000 against wealthy candidates with millions to spend.
"Rogers supports impeaching President Obama, repealing ObamaCare and “crushing Wall Street.” She also advocates the reinstatement of the Glass-Steagall Act to limit securities trading..."
I think there will be a lot more Kesha Rogers in our future as the economy gets worse. Isn't it interesting that a candidate who wants to undo the last 15 years of damage is presented as damaged goods? That shows you where this is heading. Train Wreck.

[gerald]

H -- train wreck ?---
Not sure what to make of this /or believe , cooked books and all --- Chinese Exports Collapse Leading To 2nd Largest Trade Deficit On Record
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-0 ... cit-record

Are we entering interesting times -- Act Two? or is the fat lady getting ready to sing?

[Higgenbotham]

H -- train wreck ?---
Not sure what to make of this /or believe

Me neither. ZH says, "Exports to the rest of the BRICs were all down over 20% but there is no contagion from an emerging market crisis." I didn't think things were this bad yet. I see on the graph there is normally a dip at this time of year but the analysts were expecting it to remain in positive territory. I didn't do anything based on a belief this number would be this bad. The data coming out of China hasn't been great lately but hasn't been horrible either.

This is some stuff I transcribed from a Harry Dent video and posted here on December 31:
"04. Commodity prices are going down, emerging countries export these things and they get into trouble. Emerging market stocks keep going down.
05. This creates a vicious cycle with China. China now exports more to emerging countries than they do to developing. If their exports to emerging countries go down they buy less commodities and it's a vicious cycle."
We've been seeing evidence of this in copper prices for a year, really, but nothing serious has come of it. To say exports from China to the BRICS are suddenly down 20%, no, I would not have thought.
Some better copper charts than I posted before:

COPPERNOW.png (10.32 KiB) Viewed 4507 times

This is copper spot from 2010 and I guess 2011 is shown on both charts before it hit the fan in those years. Copper indicated a slowdown was occurring before the actual slowdown showed up, but when copper fell in 2013 nothing happened (and I had expected it to and had commented on it last year in fact). It might have to do with the fact that QE distorted things badly in 2013 and now that it is being partially withdrawn there has been a delayed effect that is hitting all at once in unexpected places. But I have no reason to say that I know that; it is only a possible explanation.

COPPER2010.png (9.39 KiB) Viewed 4507 times

For almost a year I haven't understood how copper prices can be near 2011 lows and the US stock market is almost double the 2011 lows, based on anything I know about how inflation or a world economy works.

[Higgenbotham]

Just out of curiousity I worked up two 3 year charts (the max the free site will allow) of the ratio of the S&P 500 stock index to copper. The ratio is back near its 2009 high (at a 5 year high today), but the 2009 high ratio occurred at a time when deflation had pounded copper prices down to $1.25 per pound.

SPXCOPPER1.png (9.76 KiB) Viewed 4503 times

SPXCOPPER2.png (9.7 KiB) Viewed 4503 times

The question in my mind is if copper and other commodity prices continue to sink, can the US stock indexes climb to higher ratios relative to copper on the back of trouble in the emerging markets and even move to a higher ratio than achieved during the 2009 crisis before a serious crisis actually hits? Since it's a world economy the answer seems to be no and the Dow Industrials are already reflecting this with the Nasdaq perhaps the last to reflect it, as would be logical.

So this is another way to guess that if the emerging world runs into serious trouble US stocks have a long way to go to the bottom.

On March 29, 2013 at 2:42 pm,
Matthew says: Barry, thanks for bringing this up. I decided to go back to the end of the last secular bear market in stocks in 1980. That year began with an spx/copper ratio of just 81(!). The 1999 peak was 2,191(!!!). It dipped to 343 in 2006 and is currently 460. It is now the most overbought on the monthly chart since 1999.
If the s&p consolidates its recent gains by going sideways rather than down (due to the Working Group on Financial Markets), a repeat of the 1980 ratio of 80 would mean $20 copper. Stephan Leeb has mentioned $80 copper, so this target is rather tame. Whatever happens, copper currently seems a much lower risk (for longs) than common stocks.

http://www.kereport.com/2013/03/29/answ ... rs-robski/

If they can't get any inflation during the secular bear without destroying the world monetary system, and copper goes back to a buck a pound, and the SPX Copper ratio goes back near the 80 that occurred at the last secular bear market low, then it's a lot farther to the bottom than most anyone can imagine.

Could the S&P 500 go from its current all time high close of 1878 today back to 80? I seriously doubt it because the Central Bankers will try to prevent that, and in doing so blow up the world economy, which will take it back to zero. But if they leave things the hell alone, which they've proven they can't do, then it would probably go back to around 80.

[at99sy]

I think all of what is occurring the past few weeks is indicative of my theories that nothing will push this market down based upon historical precedences.
The QE 1,2,3 infinity, market manipulation, grey and black markets, fraudulent collaboration of the IMF, Federal Reserve, and international banking and insurance monopolies will act as a massive pressure wave that prevents the lemmings from falling off the cliff.

However, as the system breaks down it acts as an unending series of breaking waves of mass that pileup at the edge of the cliff with each successive wave adding more mass, pressure, and force that at some point will reach an tipping point that cannot be withdrawn or retreated from. This will result in a catastrophic social, financial, political, cultural and spiritual spontaneous combustion that the world has never before seen and will not know how to respond.

It can't be stopped, but prior events won't predict give much warning. I see this coming apart in a 72-96 hour span of time. It will be quick and furious.Once it begins, the shock waves will encircle the globe within hours taking everything down so fast the talking heads will shit themselves trying to explain what is happening. Then the last big game will start.
On the plus side, Obamacare will be moot.
cheers

sy

[gerald]

I think all of what is occurring the past few weeks is indicative of my theories that nothing will push this market down based upon historical precedences.
The QE 1,2,3 infinity, market manipulation, grey and black markets, fraudulent collaboration of the IMF, Federal Reserve, and international banking and insurance monopolies will act as a massive pressure wave that prevents the lemmings from falling off the cliff.

However, as the system breaks down it acts as an unending series of breaking waves of mass that pileup at the edge of the cliff with each successive wave adding more mass, pressure, and force that at some point will reach an tipping point that cannot be withdrawn or retreated from. This will result in a catastrophic social, financial, political, cultural and spiritual spontaneous combustion that the world has never before seen and will not know how to respond.

It can't be stopped, but prior events won't predict give much warning. I see this coming apart in a 72-96 hour span of time. It will be quick and furious.Once it begins, the shock waves will encircle the globe within hours taking everything down so fast the talking heads will shit themselves trying to explain what is happening. Then the last big game will start.
On the plus side, Obamacare will be moot.
cheers

sy

And that will be a perfect time for ---"The Twilight Zone" To Serve Man (original title) March 2 1962 http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0734684/

An alien race comes to earth, promising peace and sharing technology. A linguist and his team set out to translate the alien's language, using a book whose title they deduce is "To Serve Man".

At the end of the episode it is learned that the book " To Serve Man" is a cook book.

An interesting episode, it kinda shows how people like a free ride and are willing to be treated like cattle even if they don't know it.

cheers

g

ps -- or a black ops alien false flag event for a New World Order

[gerald]

Ah -- the benefits of a global economy. ----"China Is Crashing "
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... -predicted


"Billionaire investor George Soros recently wrote on a popular news website that the impending default and the growing fear reflected in Chinese markets has “eerie resemblances” to the global crisis of 2008."

"The big picture: the $23 trillion dollar Chinese credit bubble is starting to collapse."

US's total increase in bank assets since 2008 --- 2.1 trillion
China's total increase in bank assets since 2008 --- 15.4 trillion

The Chinese will show the US how to do it right.

Iceberg? what iceberg? full speed ahead.

[Higgenbotham]

This will result in a catastrophic social, financial, political, cultural and spiritual spontaneous combustion that the world has never before seen and will not know how to respond.

It can't be stopped, but prior events won't predict give much warning. I see this coming apart in a 72-96 hour span of time. It will be quick and furious. Once it begins, the shock waves will encircle the globe within hours taking everything down so fast the talking heads will shit themselves trying to explain what is happening. Then the last big game will start.
On the plus side, Obamacare will be moot.

I think this is about how it will go. People talk about needing their health care. They would be better off figuring out how to do without it, because they aren't going to have any and a lot of other things.

Similar to life on earth, but even moreso, a very large corporation, a hospital, or even a grocery store can only operate within a very narrow range of environmental conditions. We have come to assume those environmental conditions can be mantained indefinitely. They cannot and, in my opinion, are not being maintained.