Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7985
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Some more info on loss of skills due to lack of use:
You might want to check out FeralChildren.com(http://www.feralchildren.com/en/index.php). It has stories of lots and lots of people who have spent their youths separated/secluded/isolated from society. A common feature of the stories, even if they acquired language before losing contact with other humans, seems to be losing language skills. Some re-acquire those skills, but frequently never become fully fluent.
It's not that unusual to forget how to speak your native language. Remember the character played by Mary McDonnell in Dances with Wolves? She was the white woman captured as a child by Indians and, by the time she encounters Costner's character, she's almost forgotten how to speak English. The McDonnell character is, of course, fictional, but the language loss is based on fact - I've read a number of 19th century accounts of other white captives who forgot their native tongue.

Immediately following the Great War, a lot of British Tommies married mamselles and settled in France. In the late 1930s, the British Army pension department sent inspectors to France to to interview the ex-pat vets to find out how many were still alive and to verify identities. The inspectors discovered that, in the 20 or so years since the war ended, many of the ex-soldiers had largely forgotten how to speak English. The inspectors sometimes had to employ translators to speak to the English vets.
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/arc ... 04654.html

The 20 year mark is mentioned here too.

I believe the same will apply to the US economy, once it is no longer propped up by counterfeit money and the rest of the world buying US debt. Some in the US will become productive again, but not fully productive, due to the length of time and the aging of the population. It may be that people will not want to or that they can't become fully productive again, but the bottom line in my view is it has been too long and the end result will be a less than fully productive US economy.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
gerald
Posts: 1681
Joined: Sat May 02, 2009 10:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by gerald »

aedens--------

food will be the weapon of choice

I agree

g
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

gerald wrote:aedens--------

food will be the weapon of choice

I agree

g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SBo0akeDMY
Last edited by aedens on Sun Mar 09, 2014 6:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
aedens
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Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

gerald wrote:H -- train wreck ?---
Not sure what to make of this /or believe , cooked books and all --- Chinese Exports Collapse Leading To 2nd Largest Trade Deficit On Record
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-0 ... cit-record

Are we entering interesting times -- Act Two? or is the fat lady getting ready to sing?
Possible explanation here fits the cooked books wild gyrations thesis.
Ting Lu, an economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, said that inflated export data in January-February 2013 means that a direct year-on-year comparison can be misleading.

Fake trade deals to sneak cash into China past the country's strict capital controls were rampant early last year before Chinese regulators cracked down.

After adjusting for such distortions, export growth in the first two months of this year could actually be up about 8 percent, he calculated.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/ ... 5S20140308
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

In the 1930s, when a car broke down, someone would yell, "Get a
horse!"

When I was growing up, people used to bemoan the fact that nobody knew
how to read a sundial any longer.

Today's older software engineers bemoan the fact that younger
programmers learn Java, but have no skills with things like pointers,
data structures and thread synchronization, and don't understand
compilers and operating systems.

This morning, an analyst commenting on the Malaysian airlines plane
disappearance said: "Planes have become so automated, some pilots have
lost their basic flying skills."
gerald
Posts: 1681
Joined: Sat May 02, 2009 10:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by gerald »

aedens wrote:
gerald wrote:aedens--------

food will be the weapon of choice

I agree

g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SBo0akeDMY
An example of food used as a weapon of genocide. the "Great Potato Famine" of Ireland in the 19th century.

http://www.irishhistorylinks.net/Histor ... ocide.html

"The Irish that did survive the trip to America, Canada, or Australia on the coffin ships drummed up awareness and more importantly, aid in the form of food. But for every one ship sailing into Ireland with food, more were exporting grain-based alcohol, wool and flax, and other necessities such as wheat, oats, barley, butter, eggs, beef, and pork that could have helped feed the Irish people."
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7985
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote:In the 1930s, when a car broke down, someone would yell, "Get a
horse!"

When I was growing up, people used to bemoan the fact that nobody knew
how to read a sundial any longer.

Today's older software engineers bemoan the fact that younger
programmers learn Java, but have no skills with things like pointers,
data structures and thread synchronization, and don't understand
compilers and operating systems.

This morning, an analyst commenting on the Malaysian airlines plane
disappearance said: "Planes have become so automated, some pilots have
lost their basic flying skills."
The US services economy is strong, though that strength comes at the expense of other things. Anything related to repair or sales, whether it's made here or overseas, is well supplied with a great deal of technical expertise.

Auto repair services would be a good example of that. The next layer is whether the US economy has the means to produce the parts that are used in the auto repair industry. From what I know, the answer is yes, despite these kinds of statistics:
Cars.com surveyed domestic parts content for the top 113 models on the market, which make up 89 percent of all the cars sold through May. More than 80 percent of those cars — the vast majority of what shoppers are buying — have domestic parts content below 75 percent or are assembled in Canada, Mexico or abroad.
http://www.cars.com/go/advice/Story.jsp ... amMade0712

The next layer after that is whether the typical US consumer has the means to buy and repair an automobile over the long term. That's where things get a little questionable.

The US economy appears to be quite sound in all areas of software and aviation.

Oddly enough, one critical area where the US economy no longer appears sound is in the area of food production and distribution. I've read that many farm owners and workers are on food stamps because they're producing food that is useless for their own consumption and they are wasting all their time doing that for little income. Here, I'm speaking about the upper Midwest.

In general, the US economy is hugely out of balance due to globalization, record debt, record counterfeiting of money, record reliance on a bubble industry which places workers in useless occupations chasing counterfeit money, and a trade deficit which is too high, though the trade deficit is below its record levels of a few years ago, probably due to the fracking boom.

Generally, American workers know a lot, but many of them know a lot about things that are generally useless. I don't know if there has ever been a country as large and geographically isolated as the US that hasn't made its own clothing for over 20 years, but probably not. I'll have to look into that.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
tim
Posts: 1393
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:33 am

Re: Financial topics

Post by tim »

The General Impact Of The Decline Of A Civilization

From 'A Study Of Our Decline' by P Atkinson (9/2/2011)

When a civilization declines it goes into reverse with all the wealth, power and wisdom realised by its rise being discarded at an ever increasing rate until dissolution. The people will discover that:

1. The quality of goods and services falls as the cost increases; and this corruption extends into every aspect of their existence, from the faltering quality of bread to the growing inconstancy of love.

2. The essential requirements of:

i. Peace will be disturbed by increasing interruptions of:

Noise

Indecency (see f-word and loss of shame)

Violence from within and from without the community.

ii. Order will be increasingly eroded

Tyranny and injustice will reign as delusion triumphs and the community dissolves into impotence. But this will never be generally recognized because the source of the disease is the waning of citizens' comprehension. A decay made palpable by the disappearance of plain speaking.

Such a society is no longer engaged in creating a human heaven on earth, but is earnestly constructing the very opposite where:
• The worst people get rewarded while the best get penalized.
• The education system can only spread delusion.
• The bureaucracy becomes a liability instead of an asset.
• The courts must promote injustice.
However this will always be denied because truth will be vanquished by lies.
http://www.ourcivilisation.com/whycare.htm
“Thou shalt not bow down thyself to them, nor serve them: for I the LORD thy God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation of them that hate me; - Exodus 20:5
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7985
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

I know somebody who started a business less than 3 years ago. Generally, what they do is buy items in bulk from China and resell them. They probably stock 1000 various items which they buy in lots of several thousand per item. The items cost less than 50 cents. The items are resold on the Internet is small lots and they ship hundreds of orders every day all over the world.

So here's what the guy told me who does it; I didn't open the door to the conversation. He said this business would not exist anywhere close to the extent it does if the US economy was in sound shape. He said if people had jobs in factories and were working 9 to 5 bringing home a paycheck from a real job, I wouldn't be selling hardly anything. I knew this was true but didn't want to throw cold water on what he was doing because I feel what they've done is remarkable. Then he said that even though they're doing well, it's not on a solid foundation and they don't feel good about it long term. One person's perspective. It's another case of having a great deal of expertise, but the wrong expertise, and they know it.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
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