Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

There is indeed the possibility of a panic at any time now as so many potential triggers from the Euro mess to Japan sliding to oblivion to a panic in China. I don't think, however, we are that close to the "Big Kahuna" that will bring us to Dow 3000 or thereabouts yet. The reason is that most market participants believe wholeheartedly in the Federal Reserve's ability to stop any slide. When this faith begins to fade, all hell is going to break loose.

Perhaps the Fed is getting overwhelmed this week.

[Higgenbotham]

Bill Gates and others say this is not like Roman times because of all the great technology we have. To that point, let's talk about some of this great technology and how it relates to the drawdown of the resource. I only see technology that works to draw the resource out faster; for example, irrigation in the Midwest that draws down the aquifers, or fracking that draws down the oil resource. Both of these then allow the renewable resource excess extraction rate to be maintained at a higher level than would otherwise be possible. There does not exist any great technology which is putting water back into aquifers or increasing stores of liquid fuels (unless it depletes the other resources - ethanol for example). Most of the enhancement of soil is done with fossil fuel derived products.

The key point of the book is that more than 1,500 years separate our current era from Roman times, and life has changed so much that any sense of similarity is illusory. In Roman times, people had barely enough food to sustain them. Human and animal muscle power comprised virtually the entire kinetic energy source. Life expectancy was between 20 and 30 years. Income levels were a fraction of what we have today. So the dynamics of “surviving” were completely different then.

Smil makes an important point regarding scientific and technical advances. Whereas U.S. innovation has played a central role in creating a modern global civilization in less than 150 years, “the Roman Empire had an unremarkable…record in advancing scientific understanding, and its overall contributions to technical and engineering innovations were…fairly limited.”

http://www.gatesnotes.com/Books/Compari ... cient-Rome

[aedens]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-1 ... redit.html ... confirmation

context

The question is observed as what does Sismondi's theory that the home market shrinks with the development of capitalism amount to?
I seen this real time and so have you reading this today. Many never read it until 1963 on these shores.

We will see what transitory effect really elates into.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/f ... price.aspx

[Higgenbotham]

... confirmation

I think we're in the early stages of the lockup.

[Higgenbotham]

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.16%) this morning are up +0.03% and European stocks are up +0.04% ahead of the 2-day FOMC meeting that begins today. Stock gains were limited on concern over escalation of violence in Iraq after insurgents attacked the city of Baquba, 34 miles north of Baghdad. The AP reports that the U.S. may send a limited number of...

I've often wondered if a group such as ISIS plants a suitcase nuke that takes out an American city, if the stock market would rise on that news, thinking that would stimulate the war economy.

[aedens]

When the collapse happens they will leave their posts to protect their families.
Chaos is on the march, it will not be long now. Denial is natures way to sort.

[Higgenbotham]

When the collapse happens they will leave their posts to protect their families. Chaos is on the march, it will not be long now. Denial is natures way to sort.

Very true. Went that way when Rome fell and also during the Rodney King LA riots.

The key point of the book is that more than 1,500 years separate our current era from Roman times, and life has changed so much that any sense of similarity is illusory.

Tue, 06/17/2014 - 17:08 | 4866761 THX 1178
Complex systems always have a way of breaking free from the clutches of those who seek to control them. This has been the case for 6,000+ years and it is no different this time.

One of my favorite scenes from Titanic is the part where the crew (leadership) have lost control of the people and anarchy emerges and there is this one guy who keeps saying "sir, you cant go in there! Sir, you cant go in there!" as people run furiously past him paying no attention. This is how things will happen during our collapse too.

The cops seem tough now, what with their militarized machinery, but when the collapse happens they will leave their posts and protect their families. Chaos is on the march, and it will not be long now.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-1 ... a-genocide

In Iraq ISIS got control of the military equipment that the government force was protecting. Gang members and ex-military, etc., can get control of the equipment that the militarized police forces have in their possession.

[Higgenbotham]

In 401 or 402 Stilicho faced wars with the Visigothic king Alaric and the Ostrogothic king Radagaisus. Needing military manpower, he stripped Hadrian's Wall of troops for the final time. 402 is the last date of any Roman coinage found in large numbers in Britain, suggesting either that Stilicho also stripped the remaining troops from Britain, or that the Empire could no longer afford to pay the troops who were still there.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_Rom ... in_Britain

One possibility. With the US municipalities being in poor financial shape, the police forces may not get paid.

The acquittals of the four accused Los Angeles Police Department officers came at 3:15 pm local time. By 3:45, a crowd of more than 300 people had appeared at the Los Angeles County Courthouse protesting the verdicts passed down a half hour earlier. Between 5 and 6 pm, a group of two dozen officers, commanded by Los Angeles Police officer, Lieutenant Michael Moulin, confronted a growing crowd at the intersection of Florence and Normandie in South Central Los Angeles. Outnumbered, the police officers retreated.

At approximately 6:45 pm, Reginald Oliver Denny, a white truck driver who stopped at a traffic light at the intersection of Florence and Normandie Avenues, was dragged from his vehicle and severely beaten by a mob of local black residents as a television news helicopter hovered above, piloted by reporter Bob Tur, who broadcast live pictures of the attack, including a concrete brick that was thrown by 'Football' Damian Williams that struck Denny in the temple, causing a near-fatal seizure. As Tur continued his reporting, it was clear that local police had deserted the area.

Although the day began relatively quiet, by mid-morning on the second day violence appeared widespread and unchecked as heavy looting and fires were witnessed across Los Angeles County. Korean-Americans, seeing the police force's abandonment of Koreatown, organized armed security teams composed of store owners, who defended their livelihoods from assault by the mobs. Open gun battles were televised as in one well publicized incident, Korean shopkeepers armed with M1 carbines, pump action shotguns and handguns exchanged gunfire with, broke up and forced a retreat of a group of armed looters.

Organized law-enforcement response began to come together by midday.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots

Another possibility.

[aedens]

What you sell is worthless and what you need is going to be priceless.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-1 ... ens?page=1

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-1 ... mports-oil

Here’s that number in perspective: China water imports of 148.6 billion cubic meters last year handily exceeded the 569 MILLION (0.569 billion) cubic meters of oil that the United States imported.

Water is THE critical resource in agriculture.

We just discussed this at the last meeting http://www.briggsirrigation.co.uk/irrig ... -wheel.php

water wheat weather

[aedens]

http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=14