Financial topics

[aedens]

crack-up-boom as warned

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/do-you-kn ... you-should

M2 just states it differently as more are left behind from intent.

[Higgenbotham]

worst%20GDP%20print%20in%20history_0.jpg (65.83 KiB) Viewed 3720 times

[aedens]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-2 ... tastrophic

[vincecate]

Bought some more S&P500 puts. I am amazed it has not crashed yet. Also more Yen puts and silver calls. Still think we will get inflation and higher interest rates.

[aedens]

As noted by the end of july. I will look around then only.
I think your view is over half correct vin.

Wed May 21, 2014 : no reason to fubar 2014 since january through april will carry me to july 28 window.
Thank you all ever so much for the dialog all.

[vincecate]

I think your view is over half correct vin.

But which part is not correct, and why?

[aedens]

inflation and higher interest

Inflation controls interest rates - paper silver bad, and yes I seen the latest fiat spot price.

Longer term stuctural issues are at play now. China cannot move forward and they know it.
They cannot secure resources. The thought map for the last three decades was secure the high ground
for watershed control. You can see how that turned out from nasa on the diminishing water flow inland.
The best plan for us now is to secure soy beans for trade of course after our needs and switch grass as immediate needs
and cut the bullshit on the chinese century since they have 400 percent more problems than we screwed up since bretton woods
is in tatters. We posted the g30 notes long ago on the directions there. What I mean to suggest is since the nafta retards what
did we actually learn other than the fabian LSE model being high jacked from the current alinsky dullards and the neo con inbreds lets
rebuild a asian landwar zone we said straight up was arrogated shit for brains policy to step into the
andropov back yard plan then. Drill down point is the drug trade from two actual global drug zones. One to fund and the other
side of the coin to reap the whirlwind also. Putinville declares war on herion users as there flesh rots off their
bodies and we declare a simple minded war on drugs since lets get over the semantics to the governement actually
even begins to pragmatically care. The simple problem is Americans think they elected a representitive republic of goverment
since no one can deny point blank the Senate has abrogated its role and duties and thus are relegated to local affairs
which some are finding out as Cantor did being chosen is not a condition of security. I find it typical the right can define
small l libertarians in there blood and treasure rhetoric and cannot define itself in the constitutional letter they only it as
a suppository to ger reelected. Both sides of the isle served neither I, or my familys core interests. We are retired mil
and we simply understand asian land war win win spectrun politics and the arc of instabilty posted here many times.

China will have to learn what resource management is and they are to unstable as they implode from degraded water
and soil conditions. As for American politics if the voters elect low standards, they deserve it, and as clearly warned any
over 12 years needs to go as we sink into recessionary facts we already see and knew.

[Higgenbotham]

Bought some more S&P500 puts. I am amazed it has not crashed yet. Also more Yen puts and silver calls. Still think we will get inflation and higher interest rates.

I am too.

Comparing the GDP numbers in the table above, the first quarter of 2008 had GDP of minus 2.69%, close to the GDP for the first quarter of 2014. In the previous case, the market topped on October 11, 2007. We know there are differences but artificially low interest rates can't keep the stock market up forever because return of principal matters more than return on principal at some point, like once it becomes obvious the bubble is bursting.

I moved to 15% short this evening. I've been very slow to move on this but it appears closer. Still holding some at a loss from June 9.

[Higgenbotham]

We hear people say they need those 2% dividends they can get from their stocks because they can't get anything in the bank.

We hear people say the Fed can hold the market up so they can get their 2% dividends.

We heard people say in the year 2000 that Greenspan was "The Maestro". We heard Bernanke say in 2007 that "Subprime is contained".

A one day crash of 10% can wipe out 5 years worth of 2% dividends. A company can pay a 2% dividend for 20 years and then go bankrupt. If a company pays a 9% dividend, the investor has half a chance. That's why the old timers demanded high dividends.

Dow 30 in 1987

Allied-Signal Incorporated
Eastman Kodak Company
Navistar International Corporation (formerly International Harvester)
Aluminum Company of America
Exxon Corporation
Philip Morris Companies Inc.
American Can
General Electric Company
Procter & Gamble
American Express Company
General Motors Corporation
Sears Roebuck & Company
American Telephone & Telegraph
Goodyear
Texaco Incorporated
Bethlehem Steel
International Business Machines
Union Carbide
Boeing Company
International Paper Company
United Technologies Corporation
Chevron
McDonald?s Corporation
USX Corporation (formerly U.S. Steel)
Coca-Cola Company
Merck & Company, Inc.
Westinghouse Electric
Du Pont
Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing
Woolworth

[Higgenbotham]

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2014/06/l ... pdate.html