Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

I'm on the lookout but not sure the probability is on the high side.

Going into May 2010 most were looking for an early May high. That would have been about like looking for a July 8, 2014 high. Instead the market got blindsided with the May 6, 2010 crash.

It seems that market behavior and background in the second half of April 2010 is similar to the second half of June 2014. In both cases there was an important turn 2 months prior (February 5, 2010 and April 4, 2014). In both cases we saw the spike high early to mid month followed by the higher high 11 days later. In both cases the dollar was strengthening for several months, there was trouble overseas, and the market was holding up anyway. The 10 month cycles from the October 11, 2007 high come to mind.

July 8, 2014 is 5 years from the July 8, 2009 low and 82 years from the July 8, 1932 low. We already know the market put in a high 5 years from the March 6/9, 2009 low (and 5 years from the 2002 low). It could do that again. On the other hand, things are lining up for a big event around July 4, as I read the charts and the news.

[Higgenbotham]

Expanding on the 82 years mentioned above, the stock market crashed 82 years after the 1929 crash, then made a rebound high 82 years after the rebound out of the 1929 crash that topped in 1930. After the stock market fell from the Aprii 2012 high, the Fed went to work with more "QE" programs, which since have taken the market to a high 82 years from the 1932 Great Depression low.

The crash lows were October 29, 1929 and October 4, 2011 (after the 1929 crash low the market did a little more work to the downside, bottoming in November). The rebound highs were April 17, 1930 and April 2, 2012. 82 years less 25 days and 82 years less 15 days apart, respectively. The June 23, 2014 high of last week was 82 years less 15 days from the July 8, 1932 Great Depression low.

[Higgenbotham]

Fed-Assets-June-2014.jpg (56.21 KiB) Viewed 3251 times

The Fed did about $400 billion of QE after the February 2011 high without the stock market making any additional large gains. The S&P 500 gained an additional 26 points into the May 2011 high.

According to what the Fed has telegraphed, QE should be done by year end so there is perhaps a max $200 billion left.

[John]

> Expanding on the 82 years mentioned above, the stock market
> crashed 82 years after the 1929 crash, then made a rebound high 82
> years after the rebound out of the 1929 crash that topped in 1930.
> After the stock market fell from the Aprii 2012 high, the Fed went
> to work with more "QE" programs, which since have taken the market
> to a high 82 years from the 1932 Great Depression low.

> The crash lows were October 29, 1929 and October 4, 2011 (after
> the 1929 crash low the market did a little more work to the
> downside, bottoming in November). The rebound highs were April
> 17, 1930 and April 2, 2012. 82 years less 25 days and 82 years
> less 15 days apart, respectively. The June 23, 2014 high of last
> week was 82 years less 15 days from the July 8, 1932 Great
> Depression low.

And don't forget this:

• Wall Street: Crash in 1929, new bubble in 1995, 66 years later
• Tokyo Stock Exchange: Crash in 1919, new bubble in 1984, 65 years
  later.

Nikkei 225 Index -- Tokyo Stock Exchange -- 1984-2007 and 1914-2007


** From 2007: Japan's real estate crash may finally end after 16 years
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e070220

[Higgenbotham]

And don't forget this:

• Wall Street: Crash in 1929, new bubble in 1995, 66 years later
• Tokyo Stock Exchange: Crash in 1919, new bubble in 1984, 65 years
  later.

Nikkei 225 Index -- Tokyo Stock Exchange -- 1984-2007 and 1914-2007

** From 2007: Japan's real estate crash may finally end after 16 years
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e070220

Continuing to follow the correlation with Japan had led me to believe that the 2011 high in the US stock market should have been about it, where the 1989 peak in Japan was about equivalent to the 2000 peak in the US, and the 1996 rebound in Japan was about equivalent to the 2007 peak in the US. The final rebound in Japan faltered in early 2000, about equivalent to 2011 in the US. That's another reason to think the US stock market is way way too high.

If that thinking is valid (and I have no reason to think it isn't) our generational "crash gap" is massive because our market "should be" where Japan was in 2003 (and the US was in 1932); in other words, making a multi decade low right now.

Thanks for the reminder and the graphs.

[Higgenbotham]

At what point do people get concerned?

Hillary Clinton called President Obama “incompetent and feckless” and charged that he had “no hand on the tiller half the time” during a boozy reunion with college pals, a new book claims.

The scathing attacks came as the wine was flowing at a May 2013 dinner at Le Jardin Du Roi, a cozy French bistro near the Clinton family home in Westchester, according to “Blood Feud,” by best-selling author Edward Klein.

The former first lady, months removed from being Obama’s secretary of state, unleashed the verbal assault between sips of vino, sources told the author.

“When her friends asked Hillary to tell them what she thought — really thought — about the president she had served for four draining years, she lit into Obama with a passion that surprised them all,” Klein wrote.

Clinton ranted, “The thing with Obama is that he can’t be bothered, and there is no hand on the tiller half the time. That’s the story of the Obama presidency. No hand on the f–king tiller,” according to the book, which was excerpted exclusively in Sunday’s Post.

“Obama has turned into a joke,” she went on, according to Klein.

“The IRS targeting the Tea Party, the Justice Department’s seizure of AP phone records and [Fox reporter] James Rosen’s e-mails — all these scandals. Obama’s allowed his hatred for his enemies to screw him the way Nixon did,” she raged, the book says, adding that she called the president “incompetent and feckless.”

http://nypost.com/2014/06/27/hillary-ca ... pals-book/

[Higgenbotham]

A survey of Republicans found nearly half agreed that “an armed revolution in order to protect liberties might be necessary in the next few years.”

The poll, from Farleigh Dickinson University’s Public Mind, surveyed a random sampling of 863 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus-minus 3.4 percentage points.

It found 44 percent of registered Republicans believed an armed rebellion could come in the next few years. But only 18 percent of Democrats and 27 percent of independents agreed.

Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/ins ... z35yqQuATH
Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter

[vincecate]

Doug Noland post:
http://www.safehaven.com/article/34342/no-bubble

[gerald]

A survey of Republicans found nearly half agreed that “an armed revolution in order to protect liberties might be necessary in the next few years.”

The poll, from Farleigh Dickinson University’s Public Mind, surveyed a random sampling of 863 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus-minus 3.4 percentage points.

It found 44 percent of registered Republicans believed an armed rebellion could come in the next few years. But only 18 percent of Democrats and 27 percent of independents agreed.

Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/ins ... z35yqQuATH
Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter

An expansion on my recent "climate" post regarding the Laki Icelandic volcanic eruption of 8 June 1783 to February 1784. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/a ... revolution

"Benjamin Franklin wrote of "a constant fog over all Europe, and a great part of North America"

The disruption to weather patterns meant the ensuing winter was unusually harsh, with consequent spring flooding claiming more lives. In America the Mississippi reportedly froze at New Orleans.

The eruption is now thought to have disrupted the Asian monsoon cycle, prompting famine in Egypt. Environmental historians have also pointed to the disruption caused to the economies of northern Europe, where food poverty was a major factor in the build-up to the French revolution of 1789.

Volcanologists at the Open University's department of earth sciences say the impact of the Laki eruptions had profound consequences.

Dr John Murray said: "Volcanic eruptions can have significant effects on weather patterns for from two to four years, which in turn have social and economic consequences. We shouldn't discount their possible political impacts."
----------------------------
A repeat of this type of unanticipated event, would most likely bring down the global house of cards.

[aedens]

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to ... +OF+OFFICE

When the child misbehaves you slap the Grandmother. To few understand this proverb of my wife's people.
This nation is dead and dying between the ears.