19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame

[John]

> John, -- since you changed the chart, may I suggest you add Africa
> and South America. For example In South America things could get
> very interesting in Venezuela and Argentina, and of course Africa
> has Ebola and various "wars". Just a thought.

I chose the six regions in 2005 because they were "the most dangerous
regions in the world" because, in my view, a regional war in those
regions had a good chance of spiraling into a world war. There are
wars going on in Mali, Central African Republic, and South Sudan, but
they aren't likely to go beyond regional wars. The same would be true
in Venezuela and Argentina, in my view.

[gerald]

> John, -- since you changed the chart, may I suggest you add Africa
> and South America. For example In South America things could get
> very interesting in Venezuela and Argentina, and of course Africa
> has Ebola and various "wars". Just a thought.

I chose the six regions in 2005 because they were "the most dangerous
regions in the world" because, in my view, a regional war in those
regions had a good chance of spiraling into a world war. There are
wars going on in Mali, Central African Republic, and South Sudan, but
they aren't likely to go beyond regional wars. The same would be true
in Venezuela and Argentina, in my view.

hmmm --- Then why do you think the problems in Western Europe would spin into a world war? What is the difference between Argentina ( third and forth largest exporter of corn and soy beans ) and Venezuela ( 6th largest exporter of oil ) --- and Spain, France and Italy? in relation to global events? Wouldn't local problems in these 5 countries stay more or less contained or uncontained within their borders, about the same amount?

[gerald]

John - I guess this is an example of statistics and then there are statistics

from your link http://demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf

#830 United States New York, NY-NJ-CT 20,661,000 2014 20,366,000 4,495 4,600 11,642 1,800 2010 N - population per sq mile --------- it states 1,800 people per sq mile

from -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Un ... on_density ---------- list of US cities

#6 New York City New York City New York 8,405,837 302.6 27,778.7 -------------- it states 27,778 people per sq mile

hmmmmmmmmm

[John]

John - I guess this is an example of statistics and then there are statistics

from your link http://demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf

#830 United States New York, NY-NJ-CT 20,661,000 2014 20,366,000 4,495 4,600 11,642 1,800 2010 N - population per sq mile --------- it states 1,800 people per sq mile

from -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Un ... on_density ---------- list of US cities

#6 New York City New York City New York 8,405,837 302.6 27,778.7 -------------- it states 27,778 people per sq mile

hmmmmmmmmm

One is just the city, the other is the entire metropolitan area.

[gerald]

John - I guess this is an example of statistics and then there are statistics

from your link http://demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf

#830 United States New York, NY-NJ-CT 20,661,000 2014 20,366,000 4,495 4,600 11,642 1,800 2010 N - population per sq mile --------- it states 1,800 people per sq mile

from -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Un ... on_density ---------- list of US cities

#6 New York City New York City New York 8,405,837 302.6 27,778.7 -------------- it states 27,778 people per sq mile

hmmmmmmmmm

One is just the city, the other is the entire metropolitan area.

Your correct, however density is still density even if it is calculated differently by including such things as parks etc. People packed like sardines are still packed like sardines.
Just nit picky

cheers

[Guest]

With cases well into five figures, why is the number of people who have carried the virus outside the three nations unawares still in single digits?

[gerald]

With cases well into five figures, why is the number of people who have carried the virus outside the three nations unawares still in single digits?

Because it sounds good, correct data? What is that? Massage the numbers to get the outcome you want. Standard operating procedure, just look at the inflation rate and how they change the way it is figured.

The Sun sises in the West and sets in the East, We are the authority! Believe us! Who are you, lowly ones, to question us! --- sarcasm

[John]

With cases well into five figures, why is the number of people who have carried the virus outside the three nations unawares still in single digits?

Factors that are specific to Liberia are lack of health care
infrastructure, superstitions, illiteracy and lack of education,
anti-Western hostility, and funeral rites. These are the main factors
that caused the initial spread, and now there's an extremely fast
exponential rate of growth caused by three more factors: Lack of
enough Ebola clinics, deaths of many health workers, and isolation of
Liberia from the rest of the world -- meaning that many new Ebola
patients are literally receiving no care whatsoever.

[gerald]

With cases well into five figures, why is the number of people who have carried the virus outside the three nations unawares still in single digits?

Factors that are specific to Liberia are lack of health care
infrastructure, superstitions, illiteracy and lack of education,
anti-Western hostility, and funeral rites. These are the main factors
that caused the initial spread, and now there's an extremely fast
exponential rate of growth caused by three more factors: Lack of
enough Ebola clinics, deaths of many health workers, and isolation of
Liberia from the rest of the world -- meaning that many new Ebola
patients are literally receiving no care whatsoever.

Hmmm I guess we shall see --- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-2 ... -hit-china
Ebola Discoverer Warns Deadly Virus Will Hit China


One of the scientists who discovered Ebola has warned that China is under threat from the deadly virus because of the huge number of Chinese workers in Africa.

Professor Peter Piot also made the grim prediction that Ebola would claim thousands more lives in the months ahead.

"It will get worse for a while, and then hopefully it will get better when people are isolated," said Piot, who is in Hong Kong for a two-day symposium. "What we see now is every 30 days there is a doubling of new infections."

He estimated the epidemic would last another six to 12 months.


There will certainly be Ebola patients from Africa who come to us in the hopes of receiving treatment. And they might even infect a few people here who may then die. But an outbreak in Europe or North America would quickly be brought under control. I am more worried about the many people from India who work in trade or industry in west Africa. It would only take one of them to become infected, travel to India to visit relatives during the virus's incubation period, and then, once he becomes sick, go to a public hospital there. Doctors and nurses in India, too, often don't wear protective gloves. They would immediately become infected and spread the virus.
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Keep our fingers crossed --- if it does get bad it will get very interesting -- not in a nice way

[John]

I don't know why Peter Piot's prediction is considered "grim". What
he's predicting is positively cheery compared to what I've predicted.
I'm pretty sure we'll have millions of infections in Africa by the end
of next year, and if it spreads into China as badly uncontrolled as it
is in West Africa, then it will be hundreds of millions. If anything
can trigger a world war, then that can.